CPI, Housing Numbers and Commodity Trading Tips

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CPI, Housing Numbers and Commodity Trading Tips
Crude Oil prices fell yesterday as prices
took note of weakness in the Brent,
notwithstanding the tensions going on in the
European region. The US based crude though
saw a moderately better performance led by
improving industrial output number in the US and
positive trading in the US equity markets.
Overall, as also stated in our weekly
report, we continue to hold a negative
stance on the commodity on expectations that
crude oil demand in the US owing to slowing down
winter. A similar impact can also be seen into
the inventory scenario in the country over the
past couple of weeks. We are not expecting any
major positivity out of the tomorrows inventory
number either. In other related cues for
the commodity, Hedge funds cut their long
bets into the commodity from record levels
last week. As per data from CFTC and
updations from Bloomberg, money managers
reduced their Net long position by 5.3
for the week ended March 11, its first
decline in past eight weeks. Long positions
fell nearly 3 while shorts rose for a
third week. This further strengthens our
stance towards the lower side on the commodity.
We advice traders to build short positions
into the commodity on pull-backs today. Looking
at some other aspects for the commodity, we had
earlier recommend traders to look for rolling-
over their long positions into next contract on
declines. MCX, Mar-Apr spread currently stands
near Rs 20. Though gains potential in spread from
here looks limited ahead of expiry tomorrow,
traders holding long positions during medium term
are advised to continue rolling over on
declines Global market analysis Market
reactions remained mostly muted to the latest
developments in Ukraine. The US markets posted a
positive close overnight and the Asians are
trading mainly positive this morning supported by
higher Japanese stocks and weakening Yen. From
the FX front, euro advanced to 1.3940 despite
the euro zone annual inflation dropped in
February. The USD index remained lower at
79.348. Coming to crude oil, April future WTI
oil prices fell by 0.82 last day and this
morning is seen trading at 97.95. We believe
the weakness on the commodity may remain
mounted. We expect the crude stockpiles may
continue to increase which may further pressure
the commodity to trade down. So, for the day we
recommend selling oil from higher levels. Lastly
from the economic data front, we have the
Germans WPI, ZEW survey, euro-zone trade
balance, US CPI, housing numbers and the TIC
flows. Commodity Trading Tips SELL GOLD MCX
APRIL BELOW 30300 SL 30400 TGT 30200-30130 SELL
CRUDE OIL MCX APR NEAR 6025 SL 6065 TGT
5975 Today Economic Data Indicators
DATE TIME Region Indicator Period Survey Prior
18.03.14 1530 EC ZEW Survey Current Situation Mar 52.90 50.00
18.03.14 1530 EC ZEW Survey Expectations Mar --- 68.50
18.03.14 1530 EC Trade Balance SA Jan --- 13.7B
18.03.14 1800 US CPI MoM Feb 0.1 0.1
18.03.14 1800 US CPI YoY Feb 1.3 1.6
18.03.14 1800 US CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY Feb 1.6 1.6
18.03.14 1800 US Housing Starts Feb 915K 880K
18.03.14 1800 US Housing Starts MoM Feb 4.0 -16.0
18.03.14 1800 US Building Permits Feb 965K 937K