Pandemic Flu TTX Scenario

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Benton County, MNPandemic Flu
TabletopExerciseMay 23rd, 2007
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EOC
What it consists of, Who is part of it. NIMS/ICS
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Non Attribution Clause

• The material discussed today is classified as
  FOUO (for official use only)
• A non-attribution clause is also in effect for
  todays events.
• Simply put what is discussed in this room stays
  in this room.

For Official Use Only (FOUO) The term used
within DHS to identify unclassified information
of a sensitive nature, not otherwise categorized
by statute or regulation, the unauthorized
disclosure of which could adversely impact a
person's privacy or welfare, the conduct of
Federal programs, or other programs or
operations essential to the national
interest. FOUO is not to be considered classified
information.
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To Minimize the Risk is to Create a Greater
Danger!
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Preparation is the Key to Success
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Pandemic Flu
It is not an IF Question? It is a WHEN Question?
BUT FIRST
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Some Background

• Basic Flu Facts Flu 101
• Bird Flu - 101
• Pandemic Flu - 101

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Flu Season Is Here
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Seasonal Flu 101
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Basic Facts
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Current Flu Report
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Seasonal FluThe Flu Kills More People Today than
it did Seventy Years Ago.
INFLUENZA
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Over-Reaction
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Seasonal Flu vs. Common Cold
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GERMS
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How do we prevent the flu?
There are a number of ways and one of them is by
washing your hands.
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Cover Your Cough Cough Safe
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Cover Your Cough
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Get A Flu Shot
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Information Services Solution
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Avian Flu
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Avian (Bird) Flu 101
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Avian Flu Update
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Bird (Avian) Flu
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How Does One Get it?
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Background Information

• The World Health Organization (WHO) continues to
  monitor the prolonged existence of H5N1. The
  current WHO Pandemic Alert phase is at 3.
• Human infections of this new virus subtype have
  been detected in Asia.

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Where is it, Now?
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2003 April 11, 2007
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How at Risk are we in the US?
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Background Information

• Surveillance of migratory birds for highly
  pathogenic H5N1 continues across the United
  States.
• The Minnesota Department of Natural Resources
  (DNR) along with the United States Department of
  Agriculture (USDA) - Animal Plant and Health
  Inspection Service (APHIS), Wildlife Services are
  conducting the surveillance in Minnesota.

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Bird Flu 101
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The Bird Flu or Another
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How it Mutates
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Who is the Puddy Tat afraid of now?
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Noahs Response to Bird Flu
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How Some Countries are Responding to Bird Flu
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Other Bird Flu Headlines
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Pandemic Flu 101
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What is it?
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Flu Timeline
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What Level of Warning Are We At Now?
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How bad could it get?
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Benton/Stearns Sick/Clinic
12,000
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Benton/Stearns Hospitalized
This is not a worse case scenario
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Everyone Loves Awareness Level Color Codes
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Break 15 minutes
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Now onto our Tabletop Presentation
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What Major Players Need to be Involved?

• Public Sector
• Private Sector
• Religious Sector
• Volunteer Sector
• Others

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General Pandemic Flu Notes
A pandemic will come in waves, 2 possibly 3 Each
wave will last 6 8 weeks long 2nd wave may
occur within 3-9 months of first wave 2nd wave
may cause more serious illness and death Outside
assistant will be limited based on the outbreak
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General Goals

• Delay
• The spread so there is time for a vaccine
• Lessen
• The demand for scarce healthcare resources
• Reduce
• The number of people affected.

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Bird Flu Makes the Jump
Prologue
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Today May 23rdIts Coming!
Day 1

• Confirmed Bird flu has made the jump to humans.
• First wide spread outbreak has occurred in Asia.
• Thousands reported sick.

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World Health Organization Raises Alert to Phase 5
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What Implications Does This Have for your
Department?

• Does this increase in the WHO alert status cause
  you any concerns?
• What can you do to prepare for the inevitable
  spread of the pandemic to America?
• List the steps you would take.
• What questions would you have of public health?

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Take 5 minutes to look at your plan
Respond to the questions Being handed out. We
will begin discussion In 5
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June 15th Flu Spreads to California

• The first cases of the Pandemic Flu have now been
  found in California CDC Officials. WHO goes to
  Phase 6.
• During the past week what precautions/steps have
  you taken?
• Is there anything more you can do for your
  department at this point?
• What questions do you have?

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June 21st , 2007 Flu Spreads Throughout Country
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June 25th - Pandemic Flu in MinnesotaIts Here

• Several Pandemic Flu cases have shown up in
  Minnesota.

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LUNCH TIME 1 hour
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First Minnesota Case
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June 30th , 2007 Flu Spreads in Minnesota

• Flu cases have now spread throughout Minnesota,
  no County has been untouched.
• Cases in Benton County are rapidly multiplying.

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Effects on County Workers

• Sixty employees out sick another 20 stay home as
  caregivers.
• Entire departments out sick.
• Workers required to work in other departments.
• Departments close altogether

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BREAK 15 minutes
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August- Flu WorsensIts Bad!
Thousands Sick/Hundreds Dead - Statewide
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Infrastructure Starts to Break Down
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Benton County Numbers - Residents

• 12,000 sick another 4,000 out as caregivers
• 6,000 require outpatient health care
• 720 sent to hospitals
• 108 require Intensive Care
• 54 require ventilators
• 120 deaths
• These numbers represent an above average Pandemic
  - If it is a SEVERE Pandemic like 1918 the
  numbers for Hospitals, Intensive Care,
  Ventilators and Deaths would be 2X higher
• THESE NUMBERS ARE FOR ONE MONTH

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August September Cases Receding

• Vaccine is now available for dispensing
• 1st wave appears to be winding down
• Question as to if schools should open
• Officials say second wave is inevitable

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Where do we go from here?

• Public Health Staff must prepare for mass
  dispensing of vaccine.
• Flu supplies need to be replenished if they even
  can be found.
• Actions during this first wave need to be
  reviewed.

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Some Good News!
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Questions More Questions
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Dont Let Pogo be Right!
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Other Strategies
Alternating shifts to reduce employee contact
with each other Changing the work space to every
other desk Staggered shifts Working from
home Hoarding and the limits of just-in-time
production and trans- portation systems will
impact the availability of supplies, food, etc.
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Doomsday Clock
Bird Flu
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Chaos Clocks
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WHO Pandemic Alert Levels
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