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Pandemic Flu TTX Scenario

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Title: Pandemic Flu TTX Scenario


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Benton County, MNPandemic Flu
TabletopExerciseMay 23rd, 2007
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EOC
What it consists of, Who is part of it. NIMS/ICS
3
Non Attribution Clause
  • The material discussed today is classified as
    FOUO (for official use only)
  • A non-attribution clause is also in effect for
    todays events.
  • Simply put what is discussed in this room stays
    in this room.

For Official Use Only (FOUO) The term used
within DHS to identify unclassified information
of a sensitive nature, not otherwise categorized
by statute or regulation, the unauthorized
disclosure of which could adversely impact a
person's privacy or welfare, the conduct of
Federal programs, or other programs or
operations essential to the national
interest. FOUO is not to be considered classified
information.
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To Minimize the Risk is to Create a Greater
Danger!
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Preparation is the Key to Success
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Pandemic Flu
It is not an IF Question? It is a WHEN Question?
BUT FIRST
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Some Background
  • Basic Flu Facts Flu 101
  • Bird Flu - 101
  • Pandemic Flu - 101

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Flu Season Is Here
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Seasonal Flu 101
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Basic Facts
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Current Flu Report
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Seasonal FluThe Flu Kills More People Today than
it did Seventy Years Ago.
INFLUENZA
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Over-Reaction
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Seasonal Flu vs. Common Cold
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GERMS
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How do we prevent the flu?
There are a number of ways and one of them is by
washing your hands.
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Cover Your Cough Cough Safe
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Cover Your Cough
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Get A Flu Shot
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Information Services Solution
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Avian Flu
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Avian (Bird) Flu 101
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Avian Flu Update
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Bird (Avian) Flu
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How Does One Get it?
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Background Information
  • The World Health Organization (WHO) continues to
    monitor the prolonged existence of H5N1. The
    current WHO Pandemic Alert phase is at 3.
  • Human infections of this new virus subtype have
    been detected in Asia.

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Where is it, Now?
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2003 April 11, 2007
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How at Risk are we in the US?
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Background Information
  • Surveillance of migratory birds for highly
    pathogenic H5N1 continues across the United
    States.
  • The Minnesota Department of Natural Resources
    (DNR) along with the United States Department of
    Agriculture (USDA) - Animal Plant and Health
    Inspection Service (APHIS), Wildlife Services are
    conducting the surveillance in Minnesota.

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Bird Flu 101
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The Bird Flu or Another
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How it Mutates
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Who is the Puddy Tat afraid of now?
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Noahs Response to Bird Flu
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How Some Countries are Responding to Bird Flu
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Other Bird Flu Headlines
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Pandemic Flu 101
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What is it?
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Flu Timeline
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What Level of Warning Are We At Now?
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How bad could it get?
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Benton/Stearns Sick/Clinic
12,000
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Benton/Stearns Hospitalized
This is not a worse case scenario
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Everyone Loves Awareness Level Color Codes
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Break 15 minutes
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Now onto our Tabletop Presentation
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What Major Players Need to be Involved?
  • Public Sector
  • Private Sector
  • Religious Sector
  • Volunteer Sector
  • Others

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General Pandemic Flu Notes
A pandemic will come in waves, 2 possibly 3 Each
wave will last 6 8 weeks long 2nd wave may
occur within 3-9 months of first wave 2nd wave
may cause more serious illness and death Outside
assistant will be limited based on the outbreak
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General Goals
  • Delay
  • The spread so there is time for a vaccine
  • Lessen
  • The demand for scarce healthcare resources
  • Reduce
  • The number of people affected.

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Bird Flu Makes the Jump
Prologue
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Today May 23rdIts Coming!
Day 1
  • Confirmed Bird flu has made the jump to humans.
  • First wide spread outbreak has occurred in Asia.
  • Thousands reported sick.

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World Health Organization Raises Alert to Phase 5
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What Implications Does This Have for your
Department?
  • Does this increase in the WHO alert status cause
    you any concerns?
  • What can you do to prepare for the inevitable
    spread of the pandemic to America?
  • List the steps you would take.
  • What questions would you have of public health?

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Take 5 minutes to look at your plan
Respond to the questions Being handed out. We
will begin discussion In 5
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June 15th Flu Spreads to California
  • The first cases of the Pandemic Flu have now been
    found in California CDC Officials. WHO goes to
    Phase 6.
  • During the past week what precautions/steps have
    you taken?
  • Is there anything more you can do for your
    department at this point?
  • What questions do you have?

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June 21st , 2007 Flu Spreads Throughout Country
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June 25th - Pandemic Flu in MinnesotaIts Here
  • Several Pandemic Flu cases have shown up in
    Minnesota.

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LUNCH TIME 1 hour
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First Minnesota Case
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June 30th , 2007 Flu Spreads in Minnesota
  • Flu cases have now spread throughout Minnesota,
    no County has been untouched.
  • Cases in Benton County are rapidly multiplying.

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Effects on County Workers
  • Sixty employees out sick another 20 stay home as
    caregivers.
  • Entire departments out sick.
  • Workers required to work in other departments.
  • Departments close altogether

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BREAK 15 minutes
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August- Flu WorsensIts Bad!
Thousands Sick/Hundreds Dead - Statewide
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Infrastructure Starts to Break Down
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Benton County Numbers - Residents
  • 12,000 sick another 4,000 out as caregivers
  • 6,000 require outpatient health care
  • 720 sent to hospitals
  • 108 require Intensive Care
  • 54 require ventilators
  • 120 deaths
  • These numbers represent an above average Pandemic
    - If it is a SEVERE Pandemic like 1918 the
    numbers for Hospitals, Intensive Care,
    Ventilators and Deaths would be 2X higher
  • THESE NUMBERS ARE FOR ONE MONTH

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August September Cases Receding
  • Vaccine is now available for dispensing
  • 1st wave appears to be winding down
  • Question as to if schools should open
  • Officials say second wave is inevitable

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Where do we go from here?
  • Public Health Staff must prepare for mass
    dispensing of vaccine.
  • Flu supplies need to be replenished if they even
    can be found.
  • Actions during this first wave need to be
    reviewed.

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Some Good News!
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Questions More Questions
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Dont Let Pogo be Right!
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Other Strategies
Alternating shifts to reduce employee contact
with each other Changing the work space to every
other desk Staggered shifts Working from
home Hoarding and the limits of just-in-time
production and trans- portation systems will
impact the availability of supplies, food, etc.
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Doomsday Clock
Bird Flu
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Chaos Clocks
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WHO Pandemic Alert Levels
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