Regional Visioning

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• Regional Visioning

Land Use and Transportation for Four Million New
Residents
A Presentation to the New York Metropolitan
Transportation Council February 16th, 2006
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• National Regional Growth Trends
• The Land Use-Transportation Connection
• Visioning Around the Nation the Region
• A Long Island Visioning Initiative
• Whats Next?

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National Growth Trends
U.S. Population Change 2005- 2050
Map University of Pennsylvania
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Metropolitan Growth 2005 2050
National Growth Trends
Map University of Pennsylvania
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National Growth Trends
Emerging U.S. Mega-Regions
70 of Population 80 of Job Growth
Map University of Pennsylvania
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NYMTC Projections
Tri-State Regional Growth Trends

• An additional 3.83 million people to the
  Tri-State region
• 1.81 million to NYMTC counties

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Tri-State Regional Growth Trends
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Tri-State Regional Growth Trends
How will the region be able to accommodate this
growth at all, much less in a manner that
simultaneously achieves economic, environmental
and social equity goals?
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Tri-State Regional Growth Trends
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Tri-State Regional Growth Trends
Increasing Land Consumption per Capita
1960-90
Pre-1960 0.10 acres/person 1960 to
19901.2acres/person Land consumption per capita
has slowed somewhat since 1990, but rapid exurban
growth continues
Pre-1960
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Tri-State Regional Growth Trends

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Revitalized Centers in the Urban Core Around a
Robust Transit Network
Linking Land Use and Transportation
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Linking Land Use and Transportation
Access to Commuter Rail Station by Walking
Distance
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Tappan Zee
Linking Land Use and Transportation
The design of the transportation infrastructure
is directly linked to regional land use decisions.
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East Side Access/ LIRR Third Track
Linking Land Use and Transportation
New transportation capacity is critically needed
to handle current congestion, but also creates
the potential for higher-density development.
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Suburban Centers Nassau Hub
Linking Land Use and Transportation
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Fragmented Governance
31 COUNTIES
3 STATES
10 MPOs
695 MUNICIPALITIES
1 REGION
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A Growing Number of Areas Have Produced Regional
Visions To Guide Future Growth
Visioning Around the Nation
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Visioning Around the Nation

• Inclusive, consensus based process
• Define regional values and benchmarks for
  measuring success
• Educate public on connections between
  transportation and land use
• Develop growth scenarios and corresponding
  transportation investments through several public
  workshops
• Model indicators from each scenario and measure
  each against regional value benchmarks
• Implement land use changes in targeted locations

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Define Regional Values and Benchmarks for
Measuring Success
Visioning Around the Nation

• Workshops
• Surveys
• Polling
• Existing Plan Review

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Develop Growth Scenarios and Corresponding
Transportation Investments Through Several Public
Workshops
Visioning Around the Nation

• Base map accurately depicts conditions on the
  ground
• Determine where not to grow
• Allocate growth in chosen development scenario
• Determine necessary transportation improvements.

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Model Indicators From Each Scenario and Measure
Each Against Regional Value Benchmarks
Visioning Around the Nation

• Each scenario generated at workshops is digitized
• Land use and transportation entered into model
• Indicators relate to values and benchmarks
  generated in early stages of process

Business As Usual
Metropolis Plan
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Implement Land Use Changes in Targeted Locations
Visioning Around the Nation

• Changing zoning and development types in limited
  municipalities can have drastic effect on
  regional development patters
• Southern California 2 Solution

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Lessons from Other Regions
Envision Utah
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Lessons from Other Regions
Chicago Metropolis 2020
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Lessons from Other Regions
SCAGs Compass
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Lessons from Other Regions

• Los Angeles Compass used the most advanced
  visualization techniques to convey information to
  participants

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Foundations for Visioning in the Region
Regional Initiatives

• History of regional planning
• Existing NYMTC forecasts
• NYMTC sustainable development studies
• Benchmarking projects, such as Long Island Index
• Several community visioning projects

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Elements of the Concept Plan Preferred Land Use
Scenario
Regional Initiatives SEEDS
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Elements of the Concept Plan Preferred
Transportation Scenario
Local Initiatives SEEDS
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Local Initiatives Stamford
Several secondary and tertiary centers were
identified throughout the city that support the
downtown core.
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Local Initiatives Stamford
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Local Initiatives Stamford
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Planning Underway
Long Island Visioning Initiative

• Business, Political Civic Planning Group,
  including county planning departments, LIA,
  LIRPB, Vision LI, Sustainable LI, RPA, others
• Stakeholders meetings in April and December, 2005
• Analysis of prior and existing plans and vision
  projects
• Baseline analysis
• Development of scenario testing model

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Long Island Visioning Initiative
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Base Map
Long Island Visioning Initiative
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Two Test Scenarios
Long Island Visioning Initiative
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Long Island Visioning Initiative
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Long Island Visioning Initiative
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Long Island Visioning Initiative
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• Large Projected Growth to Metropolitan Area
• We Need to Grow Differently and Create New
  Transportation Capacity
• Public Support Will Dictate our Success

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Next Steps for the Region

• Coordinate with NYMTC, other MPOs, planning and
  transportation agencies
• Launch Long Island initiative
• Begin planning and develop partnerships in other
  parts of the region
• Complete scenario-testing model

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Potential Outcomes

• Political support for new growth strategies
• Greater consensus on the next generation of
  transportation investments
• Growth in regional centers and transit friendly
  development
• Conservation of region-shaping landscapes and
  estuaries
• Affordable housing programs and strategies
• Governance and tax reforms