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Climate Change: New Operations and Modeling Technologies

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Title: Climate Change: New Operations and Modeling Technologies


1
Climate Change New Operations and Modeling
Technologies
  • Ants Leetmaa
  • Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
  • National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
  • Princeton, NJ

2
OVERVIEW
The Grand Challenges for 21st Century
issues associated with population growth
a changing climate Climate a global forecast
Possible impacts of global warming
Necessary new products to meet emerging societal
needs Institutional challenges for the NMHSs
3
Population Growth and Associated Issues
9 billion (B) people by 2050 (50 increase)
Increasing urbanization into mega-cities 4B new
city dwellers aging populations
Food security sustainable increases in food
output/hectare of 200-300 required
Energy security Resulting environmental issues W
ater availability Air pollution Droughts/floods
Stress on planetary resources
4
Background A Variety of Forecasts
  • Weather
  • mostly regional, short-lived events
  • Deterministic forecasts
  • protection of life
  • Seasonal climate
  • Global, seasons in advance
  • Probabilistic forecasts deviations from normal
    seasons
  • Mitigation energy,food,water,health, etc
    sectors
  • Climate change scenarios
  • Global, visions of the future
  • Includes chemistry and biology modeling
  • Projections of possible future changes to
    climatologies
  • Understanding unintended consequences
    adaptation
  • Solving the carbon problem

5
Need an Integrated Global Observing System Going
Beyond the WWW
6
Climate a global forecast -most socioeconomic se
ctors can be impacted -many risks and opportuniti
es are globally correlated -likelihood of weather
extremes changes with climate state
7
Possible Global Warming Impacts
Annual Surface Air Temperature (deg C)
Conditions at double pre-industrial values of
CO2
GFDL R30 model
Annual change in runoff (cm/yr)
Summer Soil Moisture (cm)
Wetter
Drier
8
Some New Forecast Products Weather and S/I
Food Security and Health Drought including intera
ctive vegetation Heat threats Pollution Coastal
ecosystems
Adaptation Sea Level
These will be needed even without significant
global warming impacts
9
The Potential Exists for Drought Forecasts
Critical for food and water security
Precipitation Departures June 1998 - May 2002
simulated
observed
Climate models forced with the observed sea
surface temperatures simulate the severe dryne
ss over the US and Asia during 1998 2002
10
Drought Forecasts First Steps Nowcasting and
Initialization next steps extending this to a
North American product .
11
Dynamical Drought Forecasting includes land
cover, water and carbon dynamics models
  • interactive mechanistic physiology for water and
    carbon fluxes (plants)
  • biogeochemical cycling
  • static or dynamic phenology, biomass, LAI,
    vegetation height, disturbance and biogeography
    on a slow time scales
  • multi-layer soil hydrology with frozen soil
  • snow cover
  • runoff through a river network
  • current and historical global land use (crop,
    pasture, tree harvesting)

Exchange grid

Tca, qca
Tl, qsat(Tl)
snow
Tg1, q(Tl, ? L1)
?L1, ?I 1,
?Ln, ?I n
Tg6
Ocean
qsat(Ts)
12
Terrestrial Ecosystem Forecasting First Steps
Modeling the Carbon Cycle
Net primary productivity
Diurnal cycle
Annual cycle
Equilibrium storage of carbon (kg/m2) in soils
and plants
13
Pollution is a Global Issues
14
Projected Surface Ozone Trends - Southern CA
1990
2030
US EPA NAAQS
Ozone impacts health and agriculture
2030
15
Implementing Chemistry-Climate-Air Quality Models
16
Global Air Quality Pollution
Increasing pressures to farm marginal regions
result in increased aerosol transports during
times of climate stress
?
Gobi Desert Dust April 2001
Black Blizzard, Dust Bowl U.S Kansas, 1935
17
Global Aerosol Transports
African dust transport across the Atlantic
A simulation capability with observed winds
exists being incorporated into coupled climate ch
ange models
Barbados-obs simulated-black
18
Excessive Heat Outlook Product - NWS
Likely Increases in Health Threats Mega-cities,
older populations, pollution, increasing
temperatures
19
Ecological Forecasting coastal systems are under
increasing stress from population growth,
chemical runoff, land use
20
Hypoxia (biological dead zones) in the Gulf of
Mexico- linked to nitrogen (fertilizer) runoff
from mid-West farming- depend on changes to
runoff patterns- impact coastal fisheries-
enhance likelihood of harmful algal blooms
An Increasingly Stressed Environment
Frequency of Occurrence 1985 - 1999
21
Global Warming Impacts Sea Level Rise an
existing and emerging threat to coasts and
islands

4x CO2
2X
Staff of Tuvalu, Funafuti, Meteorological
Service
(Southwestern Pacific)
Time of doubling of CO2
22
Flooding at Tuvalu Meteorological Observatory,
Funafuti
Normal high elevation at Observatory is 3 meters
23
Sea Level Trends at Tuvalu (Increasing extremes r
esult not just from slow trends)
Trend6.8-2.8 mm/yr
Trend1.8 -2.8 mm/yr
Hourly data
Monthly data
Increase roughly at that for global sea level rise
1990 2000
1990 2000
Larger trend in hourly data results from high
spring tides, higher seasonal maximum, variations
associated with weather events and long term
trend.
24
Will your future forecasts be relevant?
Now- 80 degrees, partly cloudy, winds calm
Needed- water levels peaking at 4 meters in 36
hours subsiding over 3 weeks
Or will you just move your country?
What will be or are your pressing new problem
needs?
25
Your Ability to Develop New Products is Limited
  • Technology progresses faster than the demand for
    new products
  • Since these are not your main products,
    developmental resources will be inadequate
  • new demand must be generated -oceanographers
    and climate guys will play this role
  • You are failure adverse new products entail
    risks
  • The niche will be filled. Since your core
    business is elsewhere, the opportunity exists
    for innovators to move in
  • Who will the new players be?

26
Likely Future Product Cycle and Players
Prototype Reliability Convenience Publ
ic
Research entities
Specialized centers by region or sector
Private Sector
NMHSs
Some Future Think Think interdisciplinary Think
specialized centers
Think new partnerships
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