Market Analysis for Microsystems 2000 2005

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Market Analysis for Microsystems 2000 - 2005
Dr. Henning Wicht - WTC
August 1, 2002
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The NEXUS market analysis answers essential
questions about MST markets
How big are todays markets for MST ?
Who buys MST and what for ?
MST Markets
What are the promising markets of tomorrow ?
What is the long term outlook for MST ?
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Microsystems are a matter of definition within
the many technologies they connect
microelectronics
MST
nano techniques
optics
Precision mechanical milli techniques
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The NEXUS study accounts for the full range of
microsystems technologies and applications

• What qualifies as a microsystem in NEXUS analysis
• Structure in the micron range
• Function is achieved by the shape of the
  microstructure
• Microsystems combine several microcomponents
  including microelectronics in many cases
• The study provides a global analysis of MST
  markets for all applications

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Solid research and over 200 experts interviews
guarantee the results

• Groundwork
• Constant analysis of the MST trade literature the
  last 3 years
• Interviews with over 200 key industrial experts
• Results

Worldwide markets and forecasts
2000-2005 Detailed analysis of 21 microsystem
technologies Insight into the development of new
markets
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Presentation of the NEXUS market analysis
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The MST market is forecast to grow 20 annually
Total world market for MST Products 2000-2005
(billions )
(page 11 from the NEXUS market analysis)
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IT peripherals will remain the dominant
application of microsystems in 2005
2000 30 billions
2005 68 billions
Transportation
IT Peripherals
Telecommunications
Medical
Other
(pages 12-13 from the NEXUS market analysis)
Worldwide market of microsystems
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Markets for 21 MST products are analysed in detail

• drug delivery systems
• MST for chemical analysis
• optical mice
• magneto-optical heads
• inclinometers
• microspectrometers
• MOEMS
• RF-MEMS
• biometric sensors
• micromotors

• read-write heads
• ink jet heads
• heart pacemakers
• biomedical diagnostics
• hearing aids
• pressure sensors
• acceleration sensors
• gyroscopes
• flow sensors
• infrared sensors
• microdisplays

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Todays emerging products should represent over
10 of the 2005 market
(page 11 from the NEXUS market analysis)
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NEXUS vision for 2010 Micro Nano Technologies
(MNT) are the future of MST

• The importance of interfaces betweenmicrosystems
  and nanostructures will grow
• New mass markets that could appear are
• Wearable computers and smart clothes
• Intelligent house and home appliances
• Personal robots
• The IT and medical markets will keep fuelling
  innovation in microsystems
• Materials for microsystems will evolve from
  mostly silicon to a combination of silicon,
  polymer and smart materials

CNRS GaAs cathode
Sony SDR-4X
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Presentation of the NEXUS market analysis
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WTC classifies MST markets in four development
stages

• Established markets, which make the bulk (90) of
  the overall MST market now and in 2005
• Inkjet heads, read/write heads, pacemakers,
  hearing aids, in vitro diagnostics, optical mice,
  pressure sensors, accelerometers
• Emerging markets, small today (lt 200 millions)
  but where WTC forecast significant sales by 2005
  (gt 500 millions)
• RF MEMS, MOEMS, drug delivery systems,
  microdisplays, biometrics, infrared sensors
• Niche markets, serviced by demonstrated
  technologies but where no commercial breakthrough
  is expected by 2005
• Inclinometers, flow sensors, micromotors,
  gyroscopes, magneto-optical heads
• Potential markets, mostly pilot clients for MST
  still in RD
• Chemical analysis, microspectrometers

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Inkjet heads and in vitro diagnostics are largely
responsible for the 20 annual growth in
established markets
Established markets
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7 microsystems technologies seem bound to carve
their own markets by 2005
Emerging markets
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Niche markets and RD products
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Market growth
Market 2005
IVD 10bn
MOEMS 0.3bn
Optical mice 4bn
gt 1 billion
RF MEMS 0.5bn
Gyroscopes 0.8bn
Ink jet 21bn
Accelerometers 0.7bn
0.5 1 billion
Biometrics 1.7bn
lt 0.5 billion
Read/write heads 13bn
Micromotors 0.1bn
Pressure sensors 2bn
Innovation rate
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Presentation of the NEXUS market analysis
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A high potential marketIn Vitro Diagnostics
(IVD)

• IVD products consists mainly of
• Biochips
• Disposable personal tests, mostly for glucose
• The worldwide turnover of the IVD market was
  almost 2 billions in 2000
• It is forecast to grow to almost 10 billions by
  2005
• 5.2 billion for tests
• 4.4 billions for biochips

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Progress in MST will lead to non invasive
detection using near infrared
MST functionality
Implantable continuous monitors
Patch (interstitial liquid)
Non invasive IR spectrometers
Blood test strips
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
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A mature large-volume marketAcceleration sensors

• With 467 millions sales worldwide and 100
  millions units shipped in 2000, acceleration
  sensors are a typical example of successful MST
• Despite its size, the overall market for
  acceleration sensors should keep growing about 8
  per year until 2005
• The automotive industry remains the main customer
• Niche markets are geophysical sensors and medical
  devices

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Supply chain for acceleration sensors in airbags
Electronic control unit
Ignition module
Bag
Sensor
Inflator
SensoNor (N) NipponDenso (J) IC Sensors
(US) Analog Devices (US)
Autoliv (S) Bosch (D) Becker (US) TRW (US) Delco
(US) Luxor (US) Temic (D)
Davey Bickford (F) Motorola (US) OEA (US) SDI
(US) Spria (F)
Autoliv (S) Temic (D)
Petri (D) Airbag International (UK)
3 - 7
40
15
1
30 - 70
100 - 120
200 - 300
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A niche marketMicromotors

• The micromotors market remains so far
  confidential (about 2 million worldwide in 2000)
• The technology fits the requirements of a range
  of applications such as instrumentation,
  microassembly, medical devices, toys, mirror
  control, office devices BUT
• Unit prices, currently 150-500, remain 10 times
  too high for large volume applications
• The best chance for the apparition of a
  micromotors mass market lies with the IT industry
  (printers, drives)

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Flat motors have the potential to extend the
micromotors market beyond its niche status
Pessimistic scenario continuous penetration 500
000 flat motors sold in 2004
Optimistic scenario continuous penetration 4 000
000 flat motors sold in 2004
Millions units
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Presentation of the NEXUS market analysis
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Conclusions

• The MST worldwide market is forecast to grow from
  30 billions in 2000 to 68 billions in 2005
• IT peripheral manufacturers will remain the
  dominant users of MST for the foreseeable future

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The NEXUS market analysis is readily available at
WTC

• Market Analysis for Microsystems 2002-2005
• Executive summary
• MST applications markets
• MST products markets
• Vision 2020
• 160 pages
• Inquiries and orders by WTCLars Stuible
  lars.stuible_at_wtc-consult.de

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WTC probes the MST markets to get strategic
information for its customers

• What are the most attractive markets
• market volume and growth potential
• entry barriers
• competition
• What is the strategy of the market players
• How to position your company in the MST value
  chain