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In depth Report of the acting president of CBS to the Fiftysixth session of the Executive Council EC

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Title: In depth Report of the acting president of CBS to the Fiftysixth session of the Executive Council EC


1
In depth Report of the acting president of CBS to
the Fifty-sixth session of the Executive
Council(EC-LVI)
  • Presented by Alexander Gusev (Russian Federation)
  • acting president of CBS
  • Geneve, Switzerland
  • 8-18 June, 2004

2
December 2000- June 2004
  • Two CBS sessions has been held
  • 1. December 2000 (XII)
  • The meeting had record attendance with 185
    participants representing 82 Members and 11
    International Organizations.
  • The preceding Technical Conference, with the
    theme of WMO ISS was very successful.
  • 2.December 2002 (ext)
  • The preceding Technical Conference, with the
    theme of WMO DPFS was very successful.
  • Next (XIII) session will be held not later than
    2005 first quarter

3
CBS Structure
  • A Revised structure for the Commission was
    agreed at CBS-Ext (98). CBS at its 2000 meeting
    reviewed the structure and operation of the
    Commission.
  • Large open Working Groups were abolished and
    replaced with OPAGs.
  • Work of the Commission is now largely carried out
    by ICTs and ETs.
  • ETs are able to focus on the critical issues

4
Links to the RAs, TCs, IOs
  • Strong focus on Regional involvement through the
    involvement of regional rapporteurs in ICTs
  • Invitation to the chairs of the Regional WWW WGs
    to attend Commission meetings
  • Links to other WMO Commissions and programmes is
    through invitation to experts and rapporteurs to
    participate in Expert Teams and Implementation/
    /Coordination Teams.
  • New Working StructureEnhanced Inter-programme
    Representation

5
COMMISSION FOR BASIC SYSTEMS
6
4 OPAG/s
  • IOS integrated observing
  • system
  • ISS information systems
  • and services
  • PWS public whether services
  • DPFS data processing and forecasting systems

7
Current status of the WWW
The following graphs show that here has been an
improvement since the dark days of 95-96. For
example Global level of SYNOPS received (as a
of RSBN) has increased from 69 in 1996 to 77 in
2003 Global level of TEMPS has increased from
55 in 1999 to 63 in 2003
8
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14
OPAG/s activity
  • IOS
  • DPFS
  • ISS
  • PWS

15
OPAG/s activity
  • IOS

16
OPAG on IOS
  • During 2000-2004, through studies, expert
    meetings and workshops, the following has been
    achieved
  • Significant progress was made in the redesign of
    the GOS
  • several specific Observing System Experiments
    (OSEs) were initiated
  • a first 10-to 15 year vision of the evolution of
    the surface- and space-based components of the
    GOS has been developed.

17
Redesign of the Global Observing System
  • Impact of Evolution
  • The impact of the changes to the GOS in the next
    decades will be so massive that new revolutionary
    approaches for science, data handling, product
    development, training, and utilization would be
    required
  • There is an urgent need to study comprehensive
    strategies for anticipating and evaluating
    changes to the GOS

18
  • Candidate Observing Systems
  • The future GOS should build upon existing
    components, both surface and space based, and
    capitalize on existing and new observing
    technologies not presently incorporated or fully
    exploited
  • Each incremental addition to the GOS would be
    reflected in better data, products and services
    from the NMHSs

19
Redesign of the Global Observing System
  • The role of satellites will increase.
  • Extensive use of new technologies such as AMDAR,
    wind profilers and GPS techniques for moisture
    measurement.
  • Adaptive observations are expected, using for
    example, sondes dropped from aircraft, or
    changing the frequency of observations according
    to particular meteorological circumstances.

20
Redesign of the Global Observing System
  • Re-design of the GOS is an evolving process
    involving new strategies and technologies The
    new GOS may include
  • Possibly fewer, but more evenly distributed
    radiosonde stations, operating with greater
    reliability and in accordance with an agreed set
    of "best practices".
  • More extensive use of AWS, operating to agreed
    WMO standards.
  • The establishment of sustainable observing
    networks over the oceans, possibly established
    and maintained through joint international
    funding programmes.
  • .

21
Redesign of the GOS envisioned over the next 15
years should have a positive impact on developing
countries A stable GUAN/GSN in the context of
the redesign would allow for optimization in
rawinsonde utilization. Some developing
countries are implementing radar systems to
improve the measurement of precipitation and for
improved warnings. AMDAR regional projects
should provide badly needed data on winds and
temperature profiles for use by NMHSs.
Improvements in automatic weather stations,
other remote data collection platforms, and
marine observational programmes would allow for
data in inaccessible regions to be available for
a variety of applications.
22
Redesign of the GOS envisioned over the next 15
years should have a positive impact on developing
countries For example, PUMA and its follow-on,
and similar activities in other regions with
respect to satellite data reception, analysis and
communications could provide a major step forward
in capability. Training to ensure full
utilization of those data was being addressed
through the Virtual Laboratory for Education and
Training in Satellite Meteorology. The
proposed integration of alternate dissemination
methods (ADM) into the FWIS vision would allow
for the rapid dissemination of satellite
information together with other data sets to
developing countries.
23
  • OPAG on IOS
  • Draft of comprehensive Implementation Plan for
  • evolution of surface- and space-based components
    of the GOS has been prepared
  • ET-AWS reviewed functional specifications for
    AWSs, practices for reporting instantaneous
    observations and elaborated proposals for
    improving quality-control procedures for AWSs
    data
  • Practical recommendations for supporting,
    maintaining and enhancing the GCOS baseline
    networks were developed CBS lead centres for
    GCOS data were established

24
  • Third WMO Workshop on the Impact of Various
    Observing Systems on Numerical Weather Prediction
    ( 9-12 March 2004, Alpbach, Austria)
  • covered 3 major sections including Global
    Forecast Impact Studies, Regional Aspects of
    Impact Studies, Observation Targeting Studies and
    Observation Network Design Studies, 30 lectures
    were presented
  • developed specific recommendations on
    implementation of evolving users requirements
    and redesign of the GOS
  • Proceedings containing lecturers, conclusions and
    recommendations will be published by WMO

25
GOS regulatory material and related
publications (revision, updates, new
publications) Manual on the GOS, Vol. I, Global
Aspects, 2003 edition, WMO-No. 544 Observing
Stations, Volume A, WMO No. 9 Handbook for
preparation of CLIMAT and CLIMAT TEMP reports,
2004 edition, WMO/TD No. 1188
26
OPAG on IOS - Future work Continuation of the
redesign of the GOS and coordination of the
implementation of agreed recommendations related
to the redesign Technical support to individual
and multilateral efforts of Members to
rehabilitate and improve observational
programmes, in particular, RBSN/RBCN operation in
the regions concerned Measures to assure that
the structure of the evolving GOS should be
driven by Members requirements Studies related
to changes in the GOS including economical
implications Development of the WWW/GOS input
to the EOS/GEO process
27
OPAG/s activity
  • DPFS

28
DATA PROCESSING AND FORECASTING SYSTEMS
  • STATUS OF GLOBAL DATA PROCESSING AND FORECASTING
    SYSTEMS CENTRES OPERATIONAL NWP MODELS
  • IMPROVEMENT OF FORECASTING
  • EXAMPLE ON APPLICATION OF EPS
  • MAIN ACHIEVEMENTS FOR DPFS SINCE 2000
  • WORKSHOP AND TRAINING EVENTS ON DPFS SINCE 2000
  • DPFS FUTURE ACTIVITIES

29
GDPFS Centers running operational NWP models
30
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31
GDPS centers running EPS
32
Ensemble Prediction System (EPS)
  • Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) products have
    the potential to benefit forecasting services in
    all areas.
  • Examples high impact weather seasonal
    prediction environmental prediction
    hydrological modelling and environmental
    emergency response
  • EPS provide probabilistic forecasts for specific
    environmental variables dependent on atmospheric
    drivers.

33
IMPROVEMENT OF FORECASTING
Anomaly correlation coefficients of 3-, 5- and
7-day ECMWF 500hPa height forecasts, for the
extratropical northern and southern hemispheres,
plotted in the form of annual running means of
archived monthly-mean scores for the period from
January 1980 to September 2002. Values plotted
for a particular month are averages over that
month and the 11 preceding months. The shading
shows the differences in scores between the two
hemispheres at the forecast ranges indicated.
After SH (2002).

34
Application of EPS to Tropical Cyclones -
Forecast Guidance Strike Probability
Highlights high risk areas
35
Main achievements of 5 ETs and 1 ICT of the
OPAG-DPFS
  • Long Range Forecasts operational LRF
    infrastructure based on the existing WWW
    infrastructure procedures for exchange of LRF
    forecasts were defined (12 Global Producing
    Centres now produce global ensemble products for
    seasonal or inter-annual forecasts)
  • Verification of LRF a set of standard products
    for verification of Long-Range Forecasts was
    defined and Lead Centres for verification of LRF
    were established (Montreal and Melbourne).
    Coordination of the Lead Centres activities
    initiated and the establishment of a common Web
    site started.
  • Ensemble Prediction System definition of
    standard EPS products and EPS verification
    methods, consideration of methodology for the use
    of probabilistic forecast and recommended content
    for training programmes on EPS (10 GDPFS Centres
    are now producing global ensemble products for
    medium-range forecasts)
  • Data Quality Monitoring updates to the data
    quality control standards and procedures.

36
Workshop and training events on DPFS since 2000
  • Global workshop on Use of Ensemble Prediction
    Systems, Beijing, October 2000 basics on EPS
    products and probabilities were explained,
    producers of EPS described their products and
    users expressed their expectations
  • The CBS Technical Conference on Data Processing
    and Forecasting Systems, Cairns (Australia),
    December 2002, recognized the importance of EPS
    products, especially for severe weather
    forecasting, providing probabilities for risk of
    extreme phenomena
  • Workshop of Global Producing Centres (GPCs) for
    the provision of operational long-range
    forecasts, Geneva, February 2003 capabilities,
    commitments and roles of GPCs were discussed the
    expected user access and feedback were
    considered
  • WMO co-sponsored a training course organised by
    ECMWF (October 2003) on the use and
    interpretation of ECMWF products by supporting
    the participants from 15 Members .
  • Four regional training seminars on the use of
    GDPFS products (statistical adaptation, EPS
    interpretation and applications) were organized
    (in 2000 RA I, in 2002 RA II/VI and RA III/IV,
    in 2003 RA II/V)

37
Emergency Response Activity Programme (ERA)
  • improved distribution and access methods for
    nuclear emergency response information in
    collaboration with IAEA
  • enhancement of RSMC products and services for
    nuclear emergencies
  • use of ensemble atmospheric transport modelling
  •  
  • expansion of the ERA programme according to the
    WMO 6LTP to address environmental emergencies
    such as chemical accidents, wild-land fires, and
    volcanic eruptions
  • capacity building related to the provision of
    environmental emergency response services
  •  
  • cooperation between CTBTO and WMO

38
DPFS FUTURE ACTIVITIES (1)
  • Severe weather forecasting
  • Severe weather forecasting will be improved
    through the use of EPS information,
    high-resolution NWP products and products based
    on remote sensing and nowcasting tools. There is
    a need to define a methodology to make the best
    use of available NWP products.
  • Techniques and methodologies to deliver forecast
    to authorities and public will be improved,
    including the introduction of the concept of risk
    assessment by probabilities.
  • Standards or recommended practices for weather
    forecasting
  • A study developed an approach to this topic and
    will serve CBS as basis for considering follow-on
    activities.
  •  

39
DPFS FUTURE ACTIVITIES (2)
  • Training activities will be essential for users
  • to benefit from GDPFS products
  • Training material will be further developed and
    used in courses and workshops, and Computer Aided
    Learning (CAL) will be strongly integrated into
    the GDPFS training .
  • Training activities will be implemented in
    cooperation with partner agencies, such as ECMWF,
    and partner programmes, such as PWS
  • Long Range Forecasting
  • Coordination of the production of the long-range
    Global Producing Centres (GPC) to ensure that
    Regional Climate Centres (RCC) and NMHSs can
    obtain the forecast products needed for
    delivering useful information to the public.
  • Lead Centres (Melbourne and Montreal) for
    verification of long-range forecasts will
    implement the web site for helping RCCs and NMHSs
    assessing the skill of long-range forecast
    products from verification data.

40
DPFS FUTURE ACTIVITIES (3)
  • DISASTER MITIGATION
  • For mitigating flood disasters, operational
    interfaces for the exchange of specific products
    between meteorological and hydrological community
    will be developed and the partnership will be
    strengthened.
  • Joint activities of GDPFS experts and experts in
    Disaster Prevention and Preparedness will
    increase the benefit to be gained from EPS.
  • GDPFS training will put emphasis on severe
    weather forecasting, use of EPS products, and
    value of probability forecasts for the risk
    management and high impact weather forecasting.
  • Development and coordination of effective
    preparedness and early warning operations in
    sub-regions with a high natural disaster risks
  • On-site assistance in the implementation of
    emergency response services

41
OPAG/s activity
  • ISS

42
Information Systems and Services (ISS) Global
Telecommunication System Data Management Future
WMO Information System Radio-frequency
coordination
43
ISS Global Telecommunication System Implementation
operational aspects Improved MTN project
largely implemented, efficient, flexible,
cost-effective and preparing for the FWIS core
network Expanding use of data-communication
network services at regional level New and
enhanced satellite-based techniques, especially
DVB and DAB, highly efficient and cost-effective
44
Network I
Beijing
Tokyo
New Delhi
Washington
Melbourne
Moscow
Prague
Brasilia
Offenbach
Exeter
Buenos Aires
Jeddah
Network II (RA VI RMDCN Ext)
Nairobi
Sofia
Toulouse
Managed data communication network
Cairo
Dakar
Algiers
45
ISS Global Telecommunication System Guidance
for use of Internet, supplementing GTS dedicated
circuits and networks Cost-effective initial
step for developing countries Need to minimize
operational and security risks Email use for
collection of observations Virtual Private
Network (VPN-IPSec) between centres
46
ISS Global Telecommunication System
Development of GTS procedures protocols
Improving use of TCP/IP procedures Enhanced
FTP procedures Enhanced message format
(header, length) New filenaming convention
47
ISS Data Management Development of WMO Metadata
standard Needed to describe data for all WMO
Programmes, of crucial importance for FWIS Based
on ISO standards (19100 series) WMO core
standard and extensions for each WMO
Programme CBS has involved other Technical
Commissions Cg-XIV requested all WMO Programmes
to join their efforts in the further development
48
ISS Data Management Migration to table driven
codes Plan progressive migration, starting in
2005, completed by 2010 for SYNOP, TEMP, etc..
and 2015 for aviation codes Guide on BUFR/CREX,
Regional training on TCDF (RAI, II/V, III/IV),
BUFR/CREX encoders/decoders Coordination/support
of regional and national action National plan,
national focal point National operational
impact, training, software implementation,
required resources Migration to TCDF goes with
automation
49
ISS Future WMO Information System (FWIS) The
FWIS, an overarching approach For the
collection and sharing of information for all WMO
and related international programmes A flexible
and extensible structure allowing centres to
enhance their capabilities Implementation
should build upon the most successful components
of existing WMO systems FWIS development
through a smooth and coordinated transition The
core communication network should be based on the
GTS for the high priority real-time data FWIS
should utilize international industry standards
50
ISS Future WMO Information System Data collection
51
ISS Future WMO Information System Data
distribution
52
ISS Future WMO Information System
53
  • ISS Future WMO Information System
  • Main challenges
  • Development of Metadata
  • Cataloguing, including the necessary metadata
    information, of all meteorological and related
    data
  • Involvement and contribution of all WMO
    Programmes and Technical Commissions
  • Promotion and support of pilot projects and test
    beds
  • Regional and sub-regional development and
    implementation planning

54
  • ISS Future WMO Information System
  • The presidents of Technical Commissions are keen
    to bring to fruition the development of FWIS
  • They felt that a strong, high-level
    coordination and collaboration Inter-Commission
    mechanism would be effective for achieving this
    challenging task
  • They proposed the establishment of an
    Inter-Commission Coordination Group on FWIS

55
  • ISS Radio Frequency Coordination
  • ITU/WMO Handbook, Workshop, guidance on World
    Radio communication Conferences (WRC) issues
  • Satisfactory outcome of WRC 2003
  • Secure adequate radio-frequency allocations for
    operational research meteorology i.e.
    radiosondes, radars, satellites including passive
    remote sensing
  • Main current issues related to passive remote
    sensing

56
  • ISS Main future tasks
  • Technical support for further GTS upgrade, esp.
    in developing regions, and its evolution towards
    the FWIS backbone
  • Further develop procedures based on
    international industry standards, including
    secure use of Internet
  • Develop WMO Metadata standards, in association
    with other WMO Programmes

57
  • ISS Main future tasks (continued)
  • Pursue migration plan to table-driven code forms
    and relevant standards (XML)
  • Enhance WWW monitoring
  • Progress development and implementation of FWIS
    , in association with other Technical Commissions
  • Safeguard radio-frequency allocations

58
  • ISS Issues
  • Gap between developed and developing countries
  • Availability of experts
  • Sharing ownership and testing of proposals
  • Integration with existing/developing projects in
    related areas

59
  • ISS future activities resources
  • Regular 2004-2007 budgetary provisions for
    ISS/ETs and ICT meetings, with some advisory
    services
  • Assistance to Members in regional and
    sub-regional development and implementation
    planning of the GTS and FWIS should be covered by
    additional resources

60
OPAG/s activity
  • PWS

61
PWS PROGRAMME
  • OPAG/PWS
  • 3 Expert Teams and an IC Team
  • Expert Team on Media Issues (ET/MI)
  • Expert Team on Warnings and Forecast Exchange,
    Understanding and Use (ET/WFEUU)
  • Expert Team on Product Development and Service
    Assessment (ET/PDSA)
  • Implementation and Coordination Team (ICT).
  • Each Team met twice over the past 4 years and
    successfully
  • delivered on their TORs. The following three
    slides outline the OPAG achievements.

62
Public Weather Services
  • The PWS programmer is concerned with
  • improving the dialogue with international
    broadcasters
  • encourage the use of consistent, official
    information, and attribution of NMSs as the
    source of information

63
  • WEB-BASED PILOT PROJECTS
  •  
  • World Weather Information Service (WWIS) Web
    Site provides a centralized source of official
    global city weather information carries
    climatological data for 1002 cities from 153
    Members and weather forecasts for 858 cities by
    90 Members
  • Severe Weather Information (SWI) Web Site
    provides a centralized source for media access of
    official tropical cyclone warnings and
    information has global coverage and
    participation by 19 Members.
  • Both web sites developed and managed by Hong
    Kong, Chinaunder the aegis of WMO 

64
  • PUBLICATIONS - 11 Guidelines on various topics
  •  
  •     Performance assessment of PWS
  •     Technical framework for data and products for
    PWS
  •     Weather on the Internet and other new
    Technologies
  •     NMS-Media relations
  •     Graphical Presentation of PWS products
  •     Application of new technology and research
  •     Public understanding and response to warnings
  •     Cross-border exchange of warnings
  •     Air quality forecasts and biometeorology

65
  • FUTURE PRIORITIES
  • Capacity building, including media skills,
    transfer of knowledge and technology
  • Application of new technology in PWS delivery
  • Verification, service assessment and quality
    management
  • Improving relationships with media/emergency
    managers  
  • Promoting use of official consistent
    information
  • Improving level of public response to warnings
  • Promoting awareness of the economic value and
    availability of NMS products and services
  • Highlighting the impact of high quality PWS on
    NMS image and visibility.

66
Training
  • The CBS MG is concerned to see that training is
    integrated into the work programme of each OPAG.

67
Main goals for next period
  • (a) Redesign of the Global Observing System
  • (b) Refinement of the concept of the Future WMO
    Information Systems and its impacts on the
    evolution of the WWW Programme
  • (c) Implementation of the migration to binary
    codes, in particular the development of pilot
    projects
  • (d) Development of severe weather forecasting and
    issue of severe weather warning
  • (e) Support to natural disaster reduction
  • (f) Development of quality management processes
    within the existing framework of the WWW
    procedures.

68
In depth Report of the acting president of CBS
to the Fifty-sixth session of the Executive
Council(EC-LVI)
  • Thank you !
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