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Iraq

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VP Cheney speech at VFW, August 2002; UN Security Council Res. 1441 (11/02) ... Obama Policy. 2/27/09 Speech. Refocus on Afghanistan. The Bigger Battle? Pakistan ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Iraq


1
Iraq
  • Timeline

2
1. Bush 43 WMD Argument
  • Assumption
  • Iraq has WMD
  • October 2002 NIE
  • Pro and Con

3
2. Spreading Democracy
  • Falling Dominoes and Democracy
  • Map from Freedom House (2006)

4
3. Unfinished Business
  • 1998 Iraq Liberation Act
  • 1990/91 Gulf War
  • When was the first Bush 43 meeting on
    overthrowing Saddam Hussein?

5
4. Iraq and Al-Qaeda
  • Relationship?
  • Senate Select Committee on Intelligence US
    Intelligence Communitys Prewar Intelligence on
    Iraq, July 2004 (page 32 and 304-370)
  • Levin Report, October 2004
  • Pentagon Report, August 2007

6
2002-2003 Bush 43 Makes the Case
  • VP Cheney speech at VFW, August 2002
  • UN Security Council Res. 1441 (11/02)
  • Congressional Authorization for Use of Military
    Force Against Iraq, PL 107-243, 10/16/02
  • National Security Adviser Rice, January 2003
    mushroom cloud comment
  • Secretary of State Colin Powells United Nations
    presentation on Iraqi WMD (February 2003)

7
US is Committed Debates
  • Questions About the War
  • Should we invade?
  • What to expect if we do invade?
  • Troop Levels needed?

8
Questions About After the War
  • Building Democracy
  • Internal Issues
  • Will this be like Japan and Germany after WWII
  • Or Bosnia

9
Questions About After the War
  • Regional Dynamics
  • Iran
  • Syria
  • Al-Qaeda in Iraq

10
March 19, 2003 US Invasion
  • April 9, 2003

11
May 1, 2003
12
But Mission Complicated
  • Insurgency
  • Ex-Baath and ex-military
  • Al-Qaeda in Iraq, 2004
  • Kurdish Independence?
  • Shiite militias (Iran?)
  • Moqtada al-Sadr

13
Iraq, Weekend of July 7, 2007(Washington Post)
14
Political Developments?
  • Honest Attempts to Build Government
  • Ethnic parties
  • Religious parties
  • Kurds vs. Sunni Arab vs. Shiite Arab
  • Shiite vs. Shiite
  • Sunni vs. Sunni
  • OIL

15
Positive Political Developments
  • 7/03 Interim Governing Council
  • 12/03 Saddam Hussein captured
  • 6/04 New government under PM Iyad Allawi takes
    over
  • 1/05 Election of Transitional National Assembly
  • 8/05 Shiite and Kurds coalition writes
    constitution
  • 10/05 Constitution approved by referendum
  • 12/05 Legislature chosen under constitution
  • Council of Representatives
  • 4/06 New government chosen by Council of
    Representatives

16
Public Opinion of US Around the World
17
Al-Qaeda after Invasion
  • AQ in Iraq
  • Abu Musab al-Zarqawi
  • (killed June 2006)
  • AQ after Iraq (Declassified April 2006 NIE)

18
US public opinion turns against the war
19
Bush 43 Approval Ratings
20
Questions
  • How could the US have been so wrong about Iraq
    WMD?
  • How could the US have been so wrong about
    aftermath?
  • Were there what do we do?
  • The Bush surge
  • Iraq Study Group
  • Democratic candidates Withdrawal Plans

21
Good News?
  • Awakening Councils (summer 2006)
  • US Army/USMC Counterinsurgency Manual (FM
    3-24/MCWP 3-33.5)
  • General David Petraeus

22
The Result of Strategy ShiftFrom Measuring
Stability and Security in Iraq, March 2008 DoD
Report to Congress, p. 18
23
Obama Policy
  • 2/27/09 Speech
  • Refocus on Afghanistan

24
(No Transcript)
25
The Bigger Battle?
  • Pakistan
  • Northwest Frontier Province
  • Federally Administered Tribal Areas
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