Stochastic Opponent Modeling Agents (SOMA): A Case Study with Hezbollah

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Stochastic Opponent Modeling Agents (SOMA) A
Case Study with Hezbollah

• Aaron Mannes
• Mary Michael
• Amy Pate
• Amy Sliva
• V.S. Subrahmanian
• Jon Wilkenfeld
• Laboratory for Computational Cultural Dynamics
• The Center for International Development and
  Conflict Management
• University of Maryland

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LCCD Approach A Very Brief Overview

• SOMA a formal, logical-statistical reasoning
  language within which we can express knowledge
  about the behaviors of a group of interest, was
  used to compile a set of rules about Hezbollah
  behavior
• Minorities at Risk Project (MAR)database tracks
  hundreds of variables about hundreds of minority
  ethnic groups worldwide and the organizations
  that represent them - including Hezbollah
• Over 14,000 rules on Hezbollahs behavior were
  extracted
• Built the SOMA Terrorist Organization Portal to
  facilitate analysis and social networking between
  the analysts
• Questions? Dont Ask Me!
• An upcoming presentation, by the LCCD Director
  V.S. Subrahmanian will discuss the technical
  features in greater depth
• For more on MAR see the University of Marylands
  Center for International Development and Conflict
  Management - www.cidcm.umd.edu

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Hezbollah Background

• Hezbollah may be the A team of terrorists, and
  maybe al-Qaeda is actually the B team.
• - former Deputy Secretary of State Richard
  Armitage, Congressional Testimony September 2002
• Prior to 9/11 terrorist group responsible for the
  most deaths of Americans
• One of the first groups to conduct suicide
  bombings, theyve carried out terror attacks on
  three continents
• Fought a capable conventional war against Israel
  in summer 2006
• Has a political party and provides social
  services in Lebanon
• Has links to other terrorist groups,
  trans-national criminal networks, and Iran and
  Syria

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Hezbollah Politics Terrorism

• Rules indicated a clear shift in Hezbollah
  strategy depending on its relation to the
  Lebanese state
• During the Lebanese Civil War there were no
  elections and one of Hezbollahs top strategies
  was kidnapping
• When the Civil War ended, Hezbollah ran in
  Lebanese elections, reduced their level of
  kidnapping and began to launching rockets at
  Israel

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Hezbollah Kidnapping

• During the Lebanese Civil War Hezbollah was .71
  likely to engage in kidnappings in any given year
• When the level of soliciting external support was
  minor the likelihood of kidnapping rose to 1.0
• In years when Hezbollah was highly engaged in
  seeking external support likelihood was
  negligible.
• Was Hezbollah subordinating its terrorist
  activities to the needs of its sponsors?

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Hezbollah Voting Violence

• Isolating between heavy involvement in electoral
  politics (election years) and lesser involvement
  however - is revealing
• Base likelihood of attacks on Israel was .62
• In off election years likelihood of attacks rises
  to .78
• But in election years the probability is
  negligible
• Hezbollah subordinates its military goals to its
  local political needs in election years
• With Lebanese politics deadlocked over the
  Presidential election, this provides a working
  theory as to why Hezbollah has not renewed
  hostilities against Israel

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Insights

• First we see Hezbollah as an organization that
  makes careful and strategic calculations
• Second we see how Hezbollah is pulled between
  competing influences - particularly their
  sponsors and their local political interests
• Currently Hezbollah is appears caught between its
  patrons needs and the pressures of Lebanese
  politics
• Does this create an opportunity for a political
  strategy to counter-Hezbollah?

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Contact Information
Aaron Mannes Dept. of Computer Science AV
Williams Building University of Maryland College
Park, MD 20742. amannes_at_umd.edu www.aaronmannes.co
m LAB www.umiacs.umd.edu/research/LCCD/