Title: The Multiple Species Inventory and Monitoring Protocol A Monitoring Solution for National Forest Sys
1The Multiple Species Inventory and Monitoring
ProtocolA Monitoring Solution for National
Forest System lands and the Nation
- Patricia N. Manley, Ph.D and Bea Van Horne, Ph.D.
- USDA Forest Service
- Research and Development
- International Monitoring Science
- and Technology Symposium
- September 2004
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3Growing Need for Biodiversity Conservation and
Monitoring
- Johannesburg Earth Summit (2002) highlighted
increasing sustainability challenges driven by
population growth - Recent ecoregional assessments in the US document
a large proportion of all vertebrate species are
of concern and interest - Columbia River Basin 37
- Sierra Nevada 46
- Southern California 38
- Southern Appalachian Mtns 29
4Monitoring Shortfalls
- GAO (1997) reports that monitoring has
historically been given low priority by the US
Forest Service - not unlike many public land
management agencies - Primary reasons for inadequate monitoring traced
to the lack of. - clear objectives
- specified sampling design
- standardized monitoring protocols
- commitment to funding
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6MSIM Objectives
- Nationally consistent protocol to provide
spatially and temporally coincident data on an
extensive array of vertebrate and plant species
and their habitats across a broad scale in time
and space - Data to be used to meet monitoring obligations
and information needs to support Land Management
Planning, regional assessments, and national
assessments (e.g., RPA)
7National Framework
- Co-located with US Forest Inventory and Analysis
grid exists on all land ownerships
8National Framework
- Co-located with US Forest Inventory and Analysis
grid exists on all land ownerships - Set of primary survey methods are specified that
are standardized, commonly employed methods
selected to detect a broad spectrum of plant and
animal species
9National Framework
- Co-located with US Forest Inventory and Analysis
grid exists on all land ownerships - Set of primary survey methods are specified that
are standardized, commonly employed methods
selected to detect a broad spectrum of plant and
animal species - Presence data are the target for population
monitoring, but many methods yield more
information (abundance, population structure)
10National Framework
- Co-located with US Forest Inventory and Analysis
grid exists on all land ownerships - Set of primary survey methods are specified that
are standardized, commonly employed methods
selected to detect a broad spectrum of plant and
animal species - Presence data are the target for population
monitoring, but many methods yield more
information (abundance, population structure) - Regional scale design and implementation (survey
methods, sample size, grid density, resample
frequency)
11FIA Grid
- Hexagonal grid across entire country
- 2400 ha cell size one monitoring point/cell
12Primary Survey Methods Birds
13Primary Survey Methods Mammals
14Primary Survey Methods Amphibians and Reptiles
15Primary Survey Methods Vascular Plants
16Monitoring point
Track stations
Lake
Small pond
Bat mist nets
Live trapping
Meadow
Bird point counts
Pitfalls
Aq. vert. surveys
Conifer forest
Plant surveys
Habitat measures
Riparian
Note not to scale.
17Augmented Serially Alternating Panel (ASAP)
Design
18MSIM Simulated Implementation
- We asked the question
- If we implemented 10 primary
- survey methods
- At each FIA grid point on federal lands
- in the Sierra Nevada, and
- Based on estimates of the number of points in
each species range and their probability of
detection with the 10 protocols, then - Which species would we expect to observe at
enough points to detect gt 20 relative change
between two time periods with 80 confidence and
power?
19MSIM Predicted Effectiveness
- Over 70 of all vertebrate species were predicted
to be observed frequently enough to detect a 20
change - Species represented a balance of life history
characteristics, habitat associations, and
species of concern and interest
Manley et al. 2004 Ecological Applications
20Sierra Nevada Pilot Study
Sierra Nevada
Lake Tahoe
Lake Tahoe
FIA hexagon
FIA hexagon
clusters
clusters
California
California
21Pilot Test Objectives
- Evaluate effectiveness of survey methods
- Species expected present vs. detected
- Detection probabilities
- Evaluate sampling efficiency per point
- Number of sites
- Number of visits per site
- Evaluate trend detection capability
- Cost, feasibility, sampling options
22Preliminary Pilot ResultsSpecies Detections
23Survey Effort Evaluation
24Power Analysis
P
.5, n328, m263, S
2, S
2,
a
.2
1
1
2
Detection probability
1.0
0.2
0.9
0.3
0.5
0.8
0.7
Simulated Power
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
Baldwin and King in prep
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Change from P1
1
25Potential Yields from MSIM
- Monitoring
- At the scale of most national forests
- For other land allocations of interest, such as
wilderness - For hundreds of species of plants and animals
- Proportion of points occupied
- Spatial distribution and site occupancy
- Estimates of abundance for land birds, small
mammals, and plants - Measures of population structure (age ratio, sex
ratio, reproduction)
26Potential Yields from MSIM
- Scientific Discovery
- Environmental thresholds for populations
- Community structure and dynamics under a wide
variety of environmental conditions - Models of suitable habitat at site and landscape
scales for many species - Indicators and direct measures of sustainability
derived from empirical data
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