NCEP HPC Winter Weather Desk 2005 2006 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Title:

NCEP HPC Winter Weather Desk 2005 2006

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Routinely by 12 Planet, by phone only when requested by WFO ... All references to 'wwe' eliminated. Larger Model Diag images on web. Other WWD Activities ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: NCEP HPC Winter Weather Desk 2005 2006


1
NCEP HPC Winter Weather Desk 2005 - 2006
Peter C. Manousos NCEP HPC Science Operations
Officer (peter.manousos_at_noaa.gov)
2
Goals of Presentation
  • Provide quick overview of products and services
  • Provide deadlines of activities
  • Highlight changes from last season
  • Take any questions

3
WWD STRATEGY
Based on WFO/HPC feedback and findings during
previous WWD and WWEs
  • Provide prelim (internal) guidance for use at
    WFOs
  • Based on GFS, Eta, and SREF
  • Collaborate as necessary
  • Routinely by 12 Planet, by phone only when
    requested by WFO
  • Finalize public (external) product suite based on
    prelim products and input from collaboration

The collaboration process results in a
deterministic forecasts from WFOs complimented
with probabilistic forecasts from NCEP. The NWS
provides a user whats most likely to occur and a
sense of the possibilities for a winter weather
event.
4
Internal (Prelim) Set
  • For WFO use only
  • Intentionally not accessible by the public
  • Model Diagnostic Page
  • Contains model diagnostic fields used at HPC
  • Allows WFO and HPC to view same output during
    collaboration if needed
  • http//www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdd/mddoutput
  • Deterministic Graphics
  • 24h accumulations of snow/sleet and freezing rain
    to f72
  • Per agreement with WR and CR, available east of
    105W
  • http//www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/internal
    (username wwd password !!wwd!!)
  • Availability (notification message sent on 12
    Planet)
  • Day 1 - 0500/1700Z
  • Day 2 - 0545/1745Z
  • Day 3 - 0615/01815Z
  • NOTE RC had been submitted (July) to get these
    into GFE, BUT it will not occur this season due
    to normal RC process and TOC moratorium (no new
    products over SBN until after Feb 2006).

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7
WWD COLLABORATION
  • Collaboration occurs early in forecast process
  • Approach is to have HPC provide big picture
  • HPC is used a resource on pattern evolution
  • WFOs use expertise to impart local details
  • HPC contribution during collaborating calls
    centers on pattern evolution not
    watches/warnings
  • HPC also used as a vehicle to convey information
    not readily available in AWIPS to the forecaster
    (model output)

8
WWD Collaboration
  • WFO/HPC Collaboration windows
  • 0500/1700Z 0815/2015Z (3 hours)
  • Can occur outside of collaboration window as
    needed
  • Routinely via 12 Planet
  • HPC WWD id is hpc_wwd
  • Audio alarm triggers at HPC HPC, hpc, NCEP,
    ncep, WWD, wwd
  • Collaboration calls if needed

9
WWD Collaboration Calls
  • Collaboration Call Criteria (Guidelines)
  • Two or more adjacent WFOs impacted by same event
  • Pattern evolution in question (sufficient
    uncertainty)
  • 12 Planet collaboration on pattern evolution
    becomes inefficient
  • Who Initiates and Facilitates a Call
  • Either WFO or HPC
  • WFO initiated calls
  • Presupposes the requesting WFO coordinates with
    adjacent WFOs to have call
  • Requesting WFO suggest a start time - mutually
    agreeable to HPC
  • HPC facilitated calls (we will provide dial in
    and pass code info on 12 Planet)
  • Limited to 15 minutes
  • In rare instances, HPC can initiate a call during
    rapidly changing situations outside of
    collaboration windows (reference Jan 2000 event)
  • What to expect from HPC during a call
  • Focus will be on pattern evolution and how that
    pertains to forcing mechanisms expected to
    produce snow
  • Additional focus will be on model preference and
    justification
  • HPC will not comment on watches/warnings !
  • HPC participation in WFO initiated call will end
    when content naturally progresses towards
    highlight collaboration (watch/warning)

10
WWD Collaboration
  • Two way street
  • If HPC hears nothing from WFO, it assumes the
    WFOs agree on graphics
  • If WFOs have a question about HPC graphics, send
    a chat message or give us a call !
  • 301 763 8201

11
!!!!!!! WARNING !!!!!!!
  • THE INTERNAL SET OF GRAPHICS ARE NOT UPDATED
    AFTER COLLABORATION !!!
  • The effects of collaboration are imparted on the
    EXTERNAL (Final) set of HPC products

12
External Set
  • Available 0930/2130Z
  • AWIPS and the web at http//www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
    wwd/winter_wx.shtml
  • Intended for Public consumption
  • Probabilistic Accumulation Graphics
  • Exceedance of 4, 8, 12 combined snow/sleet
    and .25 ZR accums
  • 24h increments out to f72 over the CONUS
  • Low, Moderate and High contours for each
    threshold
  • Corresponding Discussion
  • Low Tracks Graphic
  • Track of significant lows over the CONUS in 12h
    increments out to f72
  • HPC low accompanied by suite of models low
    position (as a proxy to spread or uncertainty)
  • Experimental pretty version available too

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IMPORTANT
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Deadline Summary
  • 0400/1600Z
  • 00/12Z NAM, GFS in through f84
  • 09/21SREF in through f84
  • 0500/1700Z
  • WW Model diagnostic web page fully populated
  • Day 1 Prelim products available, notification
    sent out on 12 Planet
  • Collaboration Window opens
  • 0545/1745Z
  • Day 2 prelim products available, notification
    sent out on 12 Planet
  • 0615/1815Z
  • Day 3 prelim products available, notification
    sent out on 12 Planet
  • 0815/2015Z
  • Collaboration Window closed
  • 0930/2130Z

18
Significant Changes from last season
  • Staggered Deadlines for preliminary graphics
  • Experimental pretty version of the low tracks
    graphic available to public
  • All references to wwe eliminated
  • Larger Model Diag images on web

19
Other WWD Activities
  • Internal Training (HPC)
  • Review of case studies from last season
  • Experimentation with 2 snow liquid ratio (SLR)
    algorithms (Cobb, Roebber) in addition to
    Baxters Climo SLR
  • Graphics depicting hi res grids of snow
    accumulation for the intermountain region
  • Derived from HPC QPF run through Mountain Mapper
    and converted to snow via Snow Liquid Ratio
    algorithm
  • 40km HPC Snow grid downscaled to 5km using PRISM
    data
  • SREF derived Winter Weather Impact Graphics
  • 15 member system run at 34km res 2x daily
    (09/21Z) to f87
  • 10 Eta Members, 5 RSM (GFS run on a Eta domain)
    members

20
New Experimental WW Impact Graphics
  • Societal Impact of Winter Events defined by more
    than just accumulation
  • Duration, Timing, Intensity
  • Conveyance of impact could be achieved through
    SREF derived probability graphics highlighting
    these attributes
  • Distributed internally
  • for evaluation by WFOs
  • and NCEP
  • Intent is to go public
  • next season BUT NEED
  • YOUR FEEDBACK !!!!!
  • Prelim graphics already
  • produced with consultation
  • and prelim approval to
  • proceed internally from
  • BGM, BYZ, and SLC
  • We also need to compile

21
Probability Duration of Winter Event will be at
least 24 hours
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Probability Winter Precip Rate will be at least
1/hour
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Probability Sfc Vis will be reduced to at least ¼
mile in Winter Precip
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42
Probability of Snow Accumulation on Different
Surfaces
Probability of 1 or more Snow accumulation on
asphalt
Probability of 1 or more Snow accumulation on
grass
43
QUESTIONS ?
peter.manousos_at_noaa.gov 301 763 8000 x 7307
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