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Global Environmental Change and Food Systems GECAFS Vulnerability Workshop

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Many small island states (apart from Guyana and Belize) ... Dismantling of market preferences under ACP/EU protocol. Impact of Liberalization: Banana ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Global Environmental Change and Food Systems GECAFS Vulnerability Workshop


1
Global Environmental Change and Food Systems
(GECAFS) Vulnerability Workshop
  • The Caribbean Food System Background,
    Socio-economic Issues and Vulnerability to GEC
  • Ranjit Singh (UWI, Trinidad)
  • Adrian Trotman (CIMH, Barbados)

2
The Caribbean Region
3
Country Profile Table - CARICOM 2000 (Physical)
4
Country Profile Table - CARICOM 2000 (Economic
Indicators)
5
Regional characterisation
  • Many small island states (apart from Guyana and
    Belize)
  • Diverse cultures, environments and food provision
    systems
  • Great dependence on food imports
  • Reliance on export crops, tourism other
    non-food sectors (e.g. minerals) to provide
    revenue
  • Susceptibility to weather extremes
  • Susceptibility to changes in preferential export
    markets
  • Weak regional-level institutional connectivity

6
Major Sources of Foreign Exchange
  • Agricultural exports
  • Tourism
  • Exception Trinidad and Tobago where the energy
    sector is dominant
  • Oil
  • Gas (LNG)
  • Methanol
  • Ammonia

7
Caribbean Agricultural Exports Dominated by
Traditional Commodities
  • Major (sold under preferential market)
  • Sugar
  • Bananas
  • Other (sold under non-preferential market)
  • Rice
  • Coffee beans
  • Cocoa beans

8
The Caribbean Region A Net Importer of Food
9
Caribbean Food Imports Dominated By
  • Cereal wheat corn
  • Food livestock feed
  • Oils soyabean and corn
  • Meat Products

10
Market Liberalization WTO 1995
  • Removal of support for agriculture
  • Lowering of tariffs on imports
  • Dismantling of market preferences under ACP/EU
    protocol

11
Impact of Liberalization Banana
  • Banana industry unable to compete at
    non-preferential prices
  • Decline in earnings
  • St. Lucia (EC)184 mn in 1992 to 43 mn in 2001
  • Windward islands (group) EC 316 mn in 1992 to
    102 mn in 2001

12
Impact of Liberalization Sugar
  • Preferential EU market includes
  • Protocol sugar
  • SPS sugar
  • Declining sugar prices earnings from sugar
    export have declined by 25 in the past 8 years
  • Reduced quota CARICOM exports of SPS have
    declined by 15 each year since the introduction
    of EBA
  • SPS quota likely to be fully re-allocated to EBA
    countries by 2009

13
Overall Impact
  • Declining production
  • Declining incomes
  • Increasing levels of poverty/unemployment
  • Increasing incidence of malnutrition

14
Priority Policy Goals for CARICOM
  • Food security
  • Enhancing productivity and international
    competitiveness in agriculture
  • Food safety
  • Rural employment
  • Sustainability of the food/agricultural sector
    and rural communities

15
Observational evidence indicates that regional
changes in climate have already affected many
physical and biological systems
  • Shrinkage of glaciers
  • Thawing of permafrost
  • Later freezing and earlier breakup of ice on
    rivers and lakes
  • Lengthening of mid to high latitude growing
    seasons
  • Poleward and altitudinal shifts of plant and
    animal ranges
  • Declines of some plant and animal populations
  • Earlier flowering of trees, emergence of insects
    and, egg laying in birds

16
Aspects of GEC of particular concern to the
Caribbean region
  • Changing climate variability
  • Changes in mean climate (including global change)
  • Changes in the frequency, intensity and tracking
    of tropical cyclones and other extreme weather
    events
  • Sea level rise
  • GEC and social impacts on land and water
    resources and availability

17
Vulnerability
  • Increase in atmospheric temperature
  • Global average surface temp. projected to warm
    1.4-5.8 C by 2100 relative to 1990
  • Changes in crop responses
  • Heat stress in livestock
  • Greater change further poleward which may imply
    change in markets, competition from what were
    existing or potential markets
  • Increased sea surface temperatures
  • Damage to coral reefs
  • Losses of current marine/fishing species
  • Loss of tourist attraction (diving and
    snorkeling)
  • Changing species (non-reef)

18
Vulnerability
  • Tropical storms and hurricanes
  • Increased frequency and intensities
  • Greater infrastructural damage
  • Losses of agricultural production
  • Other severe systems
  • Reports of greater intensities without
    necessarily an increase in annual rainfall
  • Flooding
  • Runoff and erosion

19
Vulnerability
  • Sea level rise
  • Global average sea level projected to rise
    0.09-0.88m by 2100
  • Small islands with loss of significant land area,
    most cities situated near sea ports
  • In the case of Guyana loss of capital city of
    majority of agriculture
  • Salt water intrusion
  • Destruction of beaches, losses to tourism

20
Vulnerability
  • Drought
  • Often associated with ENSO (in conjunction with
    NAO) events
  • Crop and livestock losses in states whose
    agricultural production are mainly rainfed
  • Agriculture water competing with domestic,
    tourism and other industries

21
Temperature and Rainfall Trends since
1950 Petersen et. al 2001
22
Tropical Cyclones from 1900 to 2000 10-20 oN
55-65 oW H Burton, S Burton (CIMH)
23
Annual Rainfall during ENSO and Non-ENSO years H
Burton, S Burton (CIMH)
24
Wet Season Rainfall during ENSO and Non-ENSO
years H Burton, S Burton (CIMH)
25
Dry Season Rainfall during ENSO and Non-ENSO
years H Burton, S Burton (CIMH)
26
10 Year Moving average of Rainfall from 1850s to
1990s S Burton (CIMH)
27
Caribbean Food Systems Project
28
Overarching GECAFS Questions
  • Theme 1 How will GEC (especially land
    degradation, variability in rainfall
    distribution, sea surface temperature, tropical
    storms and sea-level rise) affect vulnerability
    of food systems in the Caribbean?
  • Theme 2 What combinations of policy and
    technical diversification in food harvested and
    traded for local consumption, in export
    commodities and in tourism would best provide
    effective adaptation strategies?
  • Theme 3 What would be the consequences of these
    combinations on national and regional food
    provision, local livelihoods and natural resource
    degradation?

29
Story lines developed for two spatial
levels Local and Regional
  • STORY LINE 1 LOCAL LEVEL
  • Target Food systems in resource-poor communities
    based on fishing and locally-produced food crops.
  • Aim To reduce food system vulnerability,
    especially in relation to changes in climate
    variability.
  • STORY LINE 2 REGIONAL LEVEL
  • Target Caribbean regional food provision.
  • Aim To develop regional-level strategies to
    reduce the additional complications GEC would
    bring to regional food provision, given changing
    preferential export markets.

30
GECAFS Questions Local Level
  • Theme 1 How would changes in climate variability
    and water availability affect food systems of
    communities on different islands?
  • Theme 2 How would current national and regional
    policy instruments (e.g. access to markets,
    insurance schemes, EEZs) best be adjusted to
    enhance the effectiveness of technical options
    for diversifying cropping systems and fisheries
    so as to reduce vulnerability to GEC?
  • Theme 3 To what extent would these strategies
    affect food provision by altering the
    proportional reliance on local vs. imported
    commodities, and how would changed land
    management and associated changes in runoff
    affect coastal fisheries and other aspects of
    coastal zone ecology and tourism income based on
    this?

31
GECAFS Questions Regional Level
  • Theme 1 What additional factors would GEC bring
    to destabilise the regions food system, and in
    particular what would be their impact on revenue
    generation from different cash commodities?
  • Theme 2 How could regional institutional changes
    best be introduced to sustain regional food
    provision by maximising diversification options
    and inter-island trade?
  • Theme 3 How would changes in intra-regional
    trade, and in policy and technical development at
    a regional level affect development in individual
    islands, and how could such changes be promoted
    to conserve the natural resource base of the
    region?

32
Regional Response Challenges
  • Diversification challenges
  • Difficulty of achieving economics of scale
  • Production characterized by small fragmented
    farms
  • Sloping and hilly terrain limit mechanization and
    labour-saving technology
  • Market access/penetration constraints
  • Shipping/handling costs
  • Quality issues
  • Lack of critical export volumes

33
Regional Response Challenges (Continued)
  • Rapid conversion of best arable lands to
    housing/built development
  • Problem of losses from crop/livestock larceny
  • Declining water resource availability
  • Degradation of watersheds
  • Weak RD and Innovation Support
  • Weak linkage of agrifood sector with tourism
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