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IPCC Synthesis Report Part IV

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... products, hybrid engine cars, fuel cell technology, ... Advanced Coal. Production costs (EURO1990/kWh) 0.01. 0.1. 1. 10. Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW) ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: IPCC Synthesis Report Part IV


1
IPCC Synthesis Report Part IV
  • Costs of mitigation measures
  • Jayant Sathaye

2
Technologies and policies exist to reduce
short-term (2010-2020) GHG emissions
  • Significant technical progress has been made in
    the last 5 years and at a faster rate than
    expected (wind turbines, elimination of
    industrial by-products, hybrid engine cars, fuel
    cell technology, underground carbon dioxide
    storage)

3
Cost of new technologies have declined
steeply, but costs of conventional technologies
have also declined at a slower rate
10
1
Production costs (EURO1990/kWh)
0.1
0.01
100
10000
1000000
Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW)
Electric technologies, EU 1980-1995, Source IEA
4
Mitigation potential -- 2020 (Cost Range
Negative to 100/t C)
5
Realizing this potential requires overcoming many
barriers
  • Barriers add to the cost of implementation, and
    reduce the realizable potential
  • Removal of barriers during capital stock turnover
    and periods of rapid social change can minimize
    disruption and mitigation costs

6
Quantification of barriers remains a challenge
Physical potential
Knowledge gap
Mititgation Potential
High costs
Technological potential
Values, attitudes, social barriers
Socio-economic potential
Market failures
Economic potential
Market potential
Time
7
GDP losses and marginal costs of compliance with
Kyoto targets vary across Annex II regions but
can be reduced substantially through emissions
trading
8
Other issues can further affect costs
  • The inclusion of carbon sinks, other greenhouse
    gases, ancillary benefits, and targeted revenue
    recycling will further reduce costs.
  • On the other hand, models under-estimate costs
    because they assume (1) full efficient emissions
    trading without transaction costs, and (2)
    economies begin to adjust between 1990 and 2000
    to meet Kyoto targets.

9
Interpreting results of models of the global
economy
  • The wide differences in estimated costs depend on
    the modelling approach and assumptions about
  • Energy technology improvements
  • Fuel mix changes
  • Baselines -- no-regrets opportunities.
  • The same costs give the appearance of being high
    or low depending on the GDP metric
  • Absolute amounts, e.g., trillions
  • GDP change in target year, or
  • Percentage change in GDP growth rates over the
    study period

10
Long-term stabilization (2100) of greenhouse
gas concentrations
  • Known technological options could achieve
    stabilization of carbon dioxide at levels of
    450-550 ppm over the next 100 years
  • Technology development and diffusion are
    important components of cost-effective
    stabilization
  • The pathway to stabilization and the
    stabilization level itself are key determinants
    of mitigation costs

11
The cost of compliance increases with lower
stabilization levels
Trillions of US
12
Projected mitigation costs are sensitive to the
assumed emissions baseline
13
Resource data may imply a change in the energy
mix and the introduction of new sources of energy
during the 21st century
14
Stabilization will require emissions reductions
globally
  • The lower the stabilization level or the higher
    the baseline scenario, the earlier and the deeper
    the reductions
  • Approaches to mitigate climate change will be
    both affected by, and have impacts on, broader
    socio-economic policies and trends, those
    relating to development, sustainability and
    equity
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