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Mortgage Rates. Regions: South / Central / North Florida ..

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Title: Mortgage Rates. Regions: South / Central / North Florida ..


1
FAR Legislative Strategy Session
  • Robert C. Stroh, Sr., Director
  • Shimberg Center for Affordable Housing University
    of Florida
  • 14 September 2005

2
Shimberg Center
  • Established in 1988 F.S. 1004.46
  • Activated 1989
  • Business lines
  • Teaching Residential development
  • Housing Policy Programs
  • Housing Technology
  • Florida Housing Data Clearinghouse

3
Contacts
  • Toll free 800-259-5705
  • Web site www.shimberg.ufl.edu
  • Housing data Bill ODell, Asst. Dir.
  • billo_at_ufl.edu
  • Policy Programs Anne Williamson, Asst. Dir.
  • arwill_at_ufl.edu
  • Housing technology Bob Stroh, Director
  • stroh_at_ufl.edu

4
Florida Housing Data
  • Florida Housing Data Clearinghouse began four
    years ago with joint funding from the Florida
    Housing Finance Corporation (FHFC) and the
    Shimberg Center.
  • The Clearinghouse provides a common reference
    point for the health of Floridas housing stock.
  • The Clearinghouse makes fact-based
    decision-making possible relative to housing.

5
Housing in Florida
  • Two Florida markets
  • Large urban coastal counties
  • Small rural counties
  • Affordability factors
  • Household incomes
  • Housing prices
  • Mortgage rates

6
  • Affordability Factors
  • Household Incomes
  • Housing Prices
  • Mortgage Rates
  • Regions South / Central / North Florida
  • Examples Palm Beach/Tampa-St.Pete/Duval

7
Median Household Incomes
8
Household Incomes
  • Median income increased in all but five counties
    1990-2000
  • Losers Brevard (0), Hardee (-1), Hendry (-2),
    Miami-Dade (-4), and St. Lucie (-1)
  • Big Winners Dixie (19), Holmes (22), Jefferson
    (20), St. Johns (28)

9
Occupation/Employment Groups
  • Ability to find affordable housing
  • Occupation/Employment Groups
  • Service workers Mechanics, Secretaries,
    Bartenders, Retail, Housekeeping, Receptionists,
    Security, Tellers, Waiters.
  • Construction Laborers, Electricians, Plumbers,
    Carpenters, Painters, Truck drivers.
  • Finance Accountants, Financial planners,
    Insurance agents, Credits analysts.
  • Public Service Firemen, Police, Postal carriers
  • Managers Engineering, Food service, Lodging,
    Construction

10
Single-family Home Choices
11
2-bdrm Apartment Option
12
  • Affordability Factors
  • Household Incomes
  • Housing Prices
  • Mortgage Rates

13
Florida House Price Appreciation (adjusted for
inflation)
  • Year Inflation Apprec
  • 1971-80 8.11 1.41
  • 1981-90 4.51 -1.50
  • 1991-00 2.76 0.21
  • 2001-03 1.94 6.81
  • 2003-prelim 1.88 7.16

14
Indexes
  • Indexes used to relate housing price to household
    income
  • Interpreting Indexes require caution
  • Index is misleading when wide variation present
  • Truncated data sources are misleading

15
Affordability Index
  • Affordability Index (Median family
    income/Qualifying income) x 100
  • Higher index value gt Easier to afford median
    priced home
  • Lower index value gt Harder to afford median
    priced home
  • Index indicates relative changes within a county
    over time and relative affordability of housing
    across counties

16
Affordability Index Trends
17
  • Affordability Factors
  • Household Incomes
  • Housing Prices
  • Mortgage Rates

18
Mortgage Rates
  • Ill leave that up to you to deal with!

19
Housing Need Indicator
  • Low Income/Severely cost-burdened
  • Households at or below 80 AMI
  • Paying more than 50 for mortgage or rent
  • The Clearinghouse provides current estimates and
    projections for 2002-2025

20
Affordable Housing Market
21
Affordable Housing Need in Florida
22
The Affordable Home Market
  • Major Challenges
  • Finding qualified buyers work with
    community-based non-profit to screen applicants
  • Assembling up-front cost SHIP money helps in
    many counties
  • Homebuyer Training Work with non-profit or
    county extension office

23
Florida Housing Data
  • Visit the Clearinghouse web site
  • www.flhousingdata.shimberg.ufl.edu
  • or
  • Contact the Shimberg Center at 800-259-5705

24
County/City Comparisons
  • Projected Construction Demand, 2025
  • Jefferson County 613
  • Lafayette County 862
  • Gulf County 925
  • Hamilton County 989
  • Orange County 236,720
  • Miami Dade County 279,813
  • Palm Beach County 286,862
  • Broward County 420,578

25
More Housing Data
  • HH head age
  • HH Income
  • HH Family size by age
  • HH Tenure
  • ----------------------------------
  • 2000 Census data for consolidated plan
  • AHNA for use in preparation of housing element
  • 2000 Census for annual PHA plan for HUD
  • Housing by County/city
  • Mortgage cost
  • Cost burden
  • Values
  • Age/Condition/Size
  • Projected SF/MF demand
  • SF Mfgr sales/yr
  • Condo sales yr price

26
Geographic Displays
  • 2002 Median Single Family Sales Price
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