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24 Future Trends

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Frank R. Leslie, B. S. E. E., M. S. Space Technology, LS IEEE. 4/23/2009, Rev. 1.9 ... The 'Time' magazine effect: Whenever a subject is so trendy that editors put it ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: 24 Future Trends


1
Happy Earth Day!
24 Future Trends in Renewable Energy
Crude Oil 65.71 on 4/25/07 117 on 4/24/08 50
on 4/23/09 82 on 4/22/10
CNNMoney.com
Frank R. Leslie, B. S. E. E., M. S. Space
Technology, LS IEEE 4/22/2010, Rev. 2.0.1 fleslie
_at_fit.edu (321) 674-7377 www.fit.edu/fleslie
2
Some Energy News
  • Google has been granted utility status to buy and
    sell electricity
  • http//www.google.org/egs/ has more info
  • DOE funds data center efficiency research

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3
24.I Introduction
  • Sustainable energy comes from the sun or from
    tidal forces of the moon and sun usually implies
    not using it faster than can be replenished
  • Since fossil fuels represent millions of years of
    stored sunlight, they are not sustainable
  • Future predictions are predicated upon uncertain
    trends with a lot of noise
  • The future is ill-defined!

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4
1 The Age of Cheap Energy is Nearly Over!
  • Hubberts Peak indicates US oil production
    peaked about 1970 World peak may be 2007
  • Oil prices are volatile, but the long term trend
    is up as extraction becomes more expensive
  • Volatile gasoline and diesel prices are
    increasing in the long term!
  • Natural gas prices are rising and massive
    hydrogen production will speed that trend
  • Hydrogen will be made from natural gas first,
    then coal, then possibly through nuclear thermal
    conversion or electrolysis from wind or sun

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5
24.1.1 Fossil Fuels
  • Renewable energy is sustainable indefinitely,
    unlike long-stored energy from fossil fuels that
    will be depleted
  • As easy-to-get fuel is extracted, costs will rise
    in getting the more-difficult resources drill
    oil at 20,000 feet?
  • Fuels must be transported from farther away, thus
    increasing total costs of it and whats made with
    it

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6
24.1.2 Energy Dependence upon Foreign Countries
  • Our dependency on cheap oil has led to a slavish
    relationship to the oil dealers
  • (Like dependency on cheap drugs has led to a
    slavish relationship to the drug dealers)
  • So do we need a 12-step way to free us from our
    oil addiction?

Is it best to use all our oil first so we can be
at the mercy of outside despots? Should we use
imported oil first to save our US oil for hard
times later?
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7
24.1.3 But Wait! Theres More!
  • We could break away from conventional fuels to
    use renewable energy or increase efficient use
  • Wind, solar, hydro, ocean tides and waves,
    geothermal
  • Most/much oil is consumed in transportation
    efficiency needed
  • The eventual energy changeover will be based more
    upon relative price as fossil fuels become more
    expensive compared to renewables
  • These energies are diffuse compared to fossil
    fuels, so collection requires a large area
    converter
  • Fossil fuels have been so cheap that any tending
    towards normal is alleged to be price-gouging,
    and people demand that the government hold prices
    down

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8
24.2 Surfeit and Waste What about Our
Grandchildren?
  • Consider the ethics of using up resources that
    our children and grandchildren, etc. may need
  • They might not live long enough to discover
    substitutes
  • If we waste resources, we unnecessarily use what
    might bridge the gap to a sustainable society
  • If bountiful fossil fuels are required to make
    renewable energy converters, burning them now
    will mean new RE converters must be made using RE
  • Can you imagine smelting iron using RE?
  • Perhaps solar thermal melt systems?

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9
24.2.1 The Bountiful Life
  • We have become conditioned to lives filled with
    the joys of cheap energy and little manual labor
  • Microwave ovens are more efficient cookers than
    electric range eyes, yet they were developed to
    just save time
  • Multiple family cars are the norm to allow
    independent travel of the family members
  • Vehicles enable greater urban sprawl
  • Living farther away from work requires more
    energy-consuming travel to get there
  • Why should a business be located downtown?
  • A clean industry like Harris Corporation is
    essentially located in a residential area where
    workers can live nearby

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24.2.2 Conspicuous Consumption
  • Some objects are more for show than utility
  • V-12, 1200 hp Cadillac engine touted in ads
  • 12,000 square foot homes
  • Expensive imported foods 1500-mile salad
  • Long-distance air travel for an hour meeting
  • Business meetings at golf ski resorts
  • Birthday party in Sardinia for Tyco exec
    Kozlowskis wife
  • 56,000 Hummers suitable for war support on our
    highways
  • Potential for a stylish new model with welded,
    inoperable 0.50 caliber machine gun on roof for
    show?
  • Unimog military SUVs now available (upper right)
  • Driven to a renewable energy fair by an RE fan!
  • Conversely, if someone wants to pay for something
    wasteful, shouldnt they be allowed to buy it?

http//www.unimog.net/
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11
24.2.3 Is Saving Your Own Money a Cool Thing
to Do?
  • Saving energy isnt seen as important, but not
    being taken is! Dont be a gullible chump!
  • A change of viewpoint can persuade people to
    change what they buy
  • Core values (deeply held) arent easily changed
    by ranting
  • Most people dont think about energy costs until
    its a problem
  • High gasoline prices are changing that viewpoint
  • Life cycle costing is unknown to most people
  • New cars are advertised by monthly payments, not
    price!
  • Conservation is only a virtue according to Vice
    Pres. Dick Cheney -- What do we know?

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12
24.3 Cornucopians vs. Cassandras
  • Cornucopians believe that needs and wants
    will always be provided for
  • Just in time, a technical breakthrough will allow
    us to get more for less, and we want more, more,
    more!
  • The Horn of Plenty is always full to
    overflowing!
  • Dont worry, be happy!
  • If it feels good, do it! --- Nike trademark

http//desktoppub.about.com/
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13
24.3 Cornucopians vs. Cassandras
  • Cornucopians believe that needs will always be
    provided for
  • Just in time, a technical breakthrough will allow
    us to get more for less, and we want more, more,
    more!
  • Cassandras shout that We are doomed, doomed,
    doomed, and no one will listen to them!
  • Cassandra (mythic legend) was loved by Apollo
    (sun god) but she spurned him he punished her by
    making her unbelievable to everyone
  • No matter how we try, we cant fight these
    oncoming events that will be our undoing and yet
    no one believes us
  • Woe is me!
  • Weve told you for years that youre doing the
    wrong thing!
  • What should we do instead? No answer . . .

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24.3 Cornucopians vs. Cassandras
  • Cornucopians believe that needs will always be
    provided for
  • Just in time, a technical breakthrough will allow
    us to get more for less, and we want more, more,
    more!
  • Cassandras believe that we are doomed, doomed,
    doomed!
  • No matter how we try, we cant fight these
    oncoming events that will be our undoing
  • We dont have to choose one of these
    philosophies!

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15
24.3.1 The Horn of Plenty Shall Always Provide
  • As European civilization expanded to North
    America, necessity led to inventions that
    preserved life or made it easier or better
  • Steam train, steam engines, windmills,
    waterpower, electric lights, telegraph, repeating
    rifle, automobiles, etc.
  • New needs led to solutions what worked evolved
    into better approaches

http//desktoppub.about.com/
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16
24.3.2 The Sky is Falling What Shall We
Do? What Shall We Do?
  • The Malthusian Theory held that the increase in
    population would swamp limited resources
  • Death, famine, war, and pestilence would result
  • An apocalyptic result
  • (Its been postponed so far!)
  • Scary movie No Blade of Grass
  • A group of economists, scientists, and
    doomsayers examine the outlook
  • RunningOnEmpty.com
  • DieOff.com
  • Caution these sites may not be suitable for
    children or adults!
  • Still, there is great emphasis on self-sufficiency

http//www.postermaniacs.com/originals/onesheets/n
o_blade_of_grass.jpg
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17
24.4 Energy Information Sources and Beliefs
  • Information sources should be skeptically
    analyzed
  • Whose info is it? What or who do they represent?
    What do they really want? Whats their agenda?
  • Sometimes animal rights organizations push vegan
    diets for good health, but they really want no
    animals killed for food
  • PETA now pressing for cloned synthetic chicken so
    real chickens wont be killed
  • Beliefs of an organization may taint or slant
    data
  • Nonconforming info is ignored as it doesnt match
    their dogma
  • They take surveys of their members (0.5 of
    population) and contend that represents the
    Nation as a whole
  • Sometimes pure hatred of the opposition
    overwhelms the group and taints every viewpoint

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18
24.4.1 How Much Info Trust is Demanded?
  • Is information available to us accurate and
    complete?
  • How does the information provider make money?
  • Their existence depends upon public hysteria?
  • Does the cash flow diminish if the truth is told?
  • When polio was conquered, March of Dimes
    switched to another childhood disease to support
    the organization staff
  • US Energy Information Agency is a USA official
    source
  • Detailed info considered, validated, and
    published
  • Delayed about 2-3 years sometimes
  • Commercial industry sources
  • Platts
  • American Wind Energy Association

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19
24.4.2 Agendas, Slants, Scams
  • Agendas (often are hidden)
  • Wants dam removal for river rafting argues fish
    are being killed
  • Likes yachting in Narragansett Bay argues wind
    farms interfere with navigation (in shallow water
    yet)
  • Wants next-door forest to remain they plant
    endangered species to be discovered --- cant
    clear this!
  • Slants
  • Carefully selects info to push the message
    rejects opposite view framing dominates the
    information
  • Selects minor views of opponents and trumpets
    them
  • Scams
  • Venture capital gatherers with wistful, visionary
    products
  • Donation of solicitations with 70 going to staff
    salaries
  • Central issue changes to protect organization
    staff jobs

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20
24.4.3 Direct Effects Upon Consumers
  • High energy bills strain budgets as prices rise
  • Electricity (and affects those bought from)
  • Gasoline (and affects those bought from)
  • Natural Gas (and affects those bought from)
  • High gasoline prices
  • Too high if majority buys fuel efficient
    vehicles but not high if majority buys poor
    efficiency vehicles (like 12-16 mph SUVs)
  • The Time magazine effect Whenever a subject is
    so trendy that editors put it on the front cover
    of Time magazine, the trend may be over
  • Misleads public to think this is coming issue
    when its past
  • Smart money is bailing out dont rush in to
    invest
  • Avoid investing in something that will occur 20
    years in future

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21
24.5 What Does the Future Hold for Our Children
Now?
  • People that we know, children and grandchildren,
    will suffer from increased fossil fuel prices
    (perhaps taxes)
  • Those that we dont know, greatgreatgrandchildren
    may have it even worse for great7grandchildren,
    worse yet
  • What we do today affects future generations ---
    shouldnt we care? (Is it really All about ME!
    ME! ME!)
  • A surging world population will fight to get or
    control energy sources, leading to wars far worse
    than Iraq
  • People of Third-World countries will crave to
    live as those do in the highly over-consuming
    U.S. and marketeers will ensure this
  • Effect of global TV influences and makes people
    aware of distant consumption trends I want to
    live like those people in those TV shows! Major
    cause of Watts, CA riots in 1965

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22
24.5.1 My Energy Costs Forecast
  • Crude Oil
  • Prices become extremely volatile, destabilizing
    the market
  • Gasoline
  • Prices rise to 6-10 per gallon (CPI-adjusted)
    within your lifetimes, and taxes will be extra!
  • Electricity
  • Comes from more diverse sources, with growing
    renewables used as fossil fuel, becomes more
    expensive by twice
  • Public Transportation
  • Aircraft Oil costs may preclude, or use of gases
    may require, frequent landing to refuel limited
    energy storage tanks
  • Trains Take over some air traffic, but tracks
    are vulnerable to easy terrorist attack because
    they are accessible for miles
  • Trucking Industry Expands to carry more people
    in posh cargo containers similar to Victorian
    train cars -- a specially bus

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23
24.5.2 Energy Shortages
  • In 1973, Arabian oil countries embargoed oil
    shipments to the United States because we had
    supported Israel in the Six-Day War against Egypt
  • Gasoline shortages across the US led to long
    lines of cars at gasoline pumps, and angry
    drivers assaulting each other
  • Prices did not really soar, but gas fill-ups were
    often limited to so many dollars or gallons
    (rationing) even-or-odd fill-up days
  • Trans-Alaska Pipeline approved in 1973 (with
    early enviro protest similarity to ANWR)
  • Through many contentious issues, California had
    an electricity crisis that was responsible for
    replacing Governor Davis with a popular actor,
    Arnold Schwarzenegger
  • Blackouts get the voters attention!
  • Shortages or total outages are received very
    differently by the public than blackouts from
    equipment failures

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24
24.5.3 Lifestyle Changes Needed!
  • Practice energy conservation and save your money
    for fun purchases (and investments for
    retirement)
  • Increase energy efficiency to save even more
    money for needed/wanted uses
  • Think of the marginal utility of supersizing
    your life
  • Less quantity or fewer features may be acceptable
    and allow your money to be used for other things
    you really want
  • Would you rather eat a slice of watermelon or a
    whole watermelon? Isnt there a limit to wants?
  • Your time may be far more valuable than your
    money
  • Live close to where you work so you dont waste
    your life stuck in traffic
  • Work at what you would do for free, but dont
    tell your boss!

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24.5.4.1 Green Energy Cities US
  • Chicago, IL
  • Goal 20 RE by 2006 now 15
  • Solar on all municipal buildings RFP issued
    Solargenix won
  • 2010 25 RE 28 energy mgmt 22 distributed
    generation25 cogeneration
  • Sacramento, CA
  • Goal 10 nonhydro by 2006 20 by 2011
  • 60 RE now among top ten US cities supplying RE
  • Portland, OR
  • Goal new wind farm green buildings 100 RE by
    2010
  • 10 RE now 1 million kWh waste methane fuel
    cells green tags
  • Austin, TX
  • Goal 35 RE and Efficiency by 2020 solar
    initiative 100MW by 2020

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24.5.4.2 Green Energy Cities International
  • Reykjavik, Iceland (geothermal and hydro)
  • Goal Worlds first hydrogen city whole country
    by 2050
  • Shell Hydrogen electrolysis hydrogen for local
    buses
  • Vancouver, Canada (hydro plus gas)
  • Goal emissions reduced by 20 compared to 1999
    emissions
  • 90 RE now has 100-year plan Grand Prize for
    Urban Sustainability
  • Barcelona, Spain (nuclear is now 49)
  • Goal reduce emissions by 20 compared to 1999 by
    increasing solar panel installations
  • Sydney, Australia (coal, solar)
  • Goals Reduce coal use from 43 and oil use from
    35 of total usage
  • 500MW Singleton Solar Farms

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24.6 International Price Upsets
  • Taliban takes over Pakistan government and
    controls nuclear weapon missiles?
  • Many countries within reach of those missiles
  • If Israel is threatened, will they attack
    Pakistan first?
  • India has no policy plan to fight the Taliban!
  • What would Iran (close to nuclear weapons for
    their missiles) do in support of other Islamic
    nations?
  • International instability will immediately cause
    oil future prices to surge higher

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24.C Conclusion
  • Fossil fuel pollution may increase Green House
    Effect
  • Humans must have air, water, food, and energy
  • Future cars will be plug-in hybrids running
    occasionally on bioethanol or biodiesel for long
    trips
  • Trains will replace aircraft for civilian long
    trips
  • Renewable energy offers a long-term, sustainable
    approach to the Worlds energy needs
  • Requires substantial converter building to
    increase supply
  • Economics drives the selection process and
    short-term (first cost) thinking leads to
    disregard of long-term, overall cost

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25.C Conclusion
  • Fossil fuel pollution may increase Green House
    Effect
  • Humans must have air, water, food, and energy
  • Renewable energy offers a long-term, sustainable
    approach to the Worlds energy needs
  • Economics drives the selection process and
    short-term (first cost) thinking leads to
    disregard of long-term overall cost
  • Increasing oil, gas, and coal prices will ensure
    that the transition to renewable energy will
    occur ? How will we choose to
    do it?

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Thank you! Questions? ? ?
My website my.fit.edu/fleslie for
presentations Roberts Hall weather and energy
data my.fit.edu/wx_fit/roberts/RH.htm DMES
Meteorology Webpage my.fit.edu/wx_fit/?qobs/re
altime/roberts
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31
References Books
  • Brower, Michael. Cool Energy. Cambridge MA The
    MIT Press, 1992. 0-262-02349-0, TJ807.9.U6B76,
    333.7940973.
  • Duffie, John and William A. Beckman. Solar
    Engineering of Thermal Processes. NY John Wiley
    Sons, Inc., 920 pp., 1991
  • Gipe, Paul. Wind Energy for Home Business.
    White River Junction, VT Chelsea Green Pub. Co.,
    1993. 0-930031-64-4, TJ820.G57, 621.45
  • Patel, Mukund R. Wind and Solar Power Systems.
    Boca Raton CRC Press, 1999, 351 pp. ISBN
    0-8493-1605-7, TK1541.P38 1999, 621.312136
  • Sørensen, Bent. Renewable Energy, Second Edition.
    San Diego Academic Press, 2000, 911 pp. ISBN
    0-12-656152-4.
  • Aubrecht, Gordon J. Energy, Second Edition. NJ
    Upper Saddle River, Prentice-Hall, Inc., 668 pp.,
    1995. 0-02-304601-5. TJ163.2.A88.

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References Websites, etc.
  • awea-windnet_at_yahoogroups.com. Wind Energy elist
  • awea-wind-home_at_yahoogroups.com. Wind energy home
    powersite elist
  • geothermal.marin.org/ on geothermal energy
  • mailtoenergyresources_at_egroups.com
  • rredc.nrel.gov/wind/pubs/atlas/maps/chap2/2-01m.ht
    ml PNNL wind energy map of CONUS
    windenergyexperimenter_at_yahoogroups.com. Elist
    for wind energy experimenters
  • www.dieoff.org. Site devoted to the decline of
    energy and effects upon population
  • www.ferc.gov/ Federal Energy Regulatory
    Commission
  • www.hawaii.gov/dbedt/ert/otec_hi.htmlanchor349152
    on OTEC systems
  • telosnet.com/wind/20th.html
  • www.google.com/search?q22renewableenergycourse
    22
  • solstice.crest.org/
  • dataweb.usbr.gov/html/powerplant_selection.html
  • http//cr.middlebury.edu/es/altenergylife/70's.htm
  • http//www.barcelonaenergia.com/eng/observatory/bc
    nenergy3.htm

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