Attitudes of Settlers in The West Bank and Gaza About the Possibility Of Leaving

1
Attitudes of Settlers in The West Bank and Gaza
About the Possibility Of Leaving

• An Abridged Report of Findings Based on Three
  Survey Phases April-July 2002
• Conducted by Dr. Michael Hopp
• with Prof. D.Jacobson, Prof. Y. Peres Prof,
  Y. Schnell

2
RESEARCH PLAN

• 4,000 HOUSEHOLDS WERE SAMPLED, ONE PERSON PER
  HOUSEHOLD.
• 3,200 RESPONDENTS IN THE WEST BANK AND GAZA AND
  800 IN A CONTROL GROUP OF JEWS WITHIN THE
  GREENLINE.
• SAMPLING IN THE TERRITORIES WAS CONDUCTED TO
  QUOTAS IN 20 GEORGAPHICAL CLUSTERS.
• SETTLERS WERE INTERVIEWED AT RANDOM BY PHONE IN
  127 SETTLEMENTS.
• EVEN IN SMALLEST SETTLEMENTS NO LESS THEN 10
  HOUSEHOLDS WERE INTERVIEWED.
• CAREFUL METHODOLOGICAL PROCEDURES WERE EMPLOYED
  THROUGHOUT TO ENSURE STUDY RELIABILITY AND
  VALIDITY
• PRIOR TO ANALYSIS DATA WERE ADJUSTED TO THE
  CORRECT POPULATION PROPORTIONS

3
METHODOLOGY

• INTERVIEWS EMPLOYED CLOSE-ENDED QUESTIONNAIRES
  WITH MANY SHORT ORDINAL AND INTERVAL SCALED ITEMS
• OPINIONS AND ATTITUDES WERE SCREENED IN SEVERAL
  BATTERIES OF GRADED QUESTIONS.
• EVERY ITEM WAS STUDIED IN MORE THEN ONE SEPARATE
  SERIES OF QUESTIONS
• EACH SERIES OF QUESTIONS WAS USED TO FORMULATE A
  SEPARATE ATTITUDE MEASURE
• USING STATISTICAL PROCEDURES (ANALYSIS OF
  VARIANCE, REGRESSION AND RELIABILITY ANALYSIS)
  THESE ATTITUDE MEASURES WERE JOINED INTO AN
  INDEX OF THE PROJECTED RESPONSE TO WITHDRAWAL
  FROM THE TERRITORIES.
• THE SAMPLE WAS SPLIT INTO THREE, EACH WAS GIVEN A
  DIFFERENT COMPENSATION PRICE TO TEST DEMAND
  FOR A FINANCIAL SETTLEMENT IN RETURN FOR A
  WITHDRAWAL.

4
TOPICS OF STUDY

• THE QUESTIONNAIRE COVERED FOLLOWING TOPICS
• PERCEIVED NEED FOR PEACE A PALESTINIAN STATE
• THE PROBABILITY OF PEACE ATTAINMENT
• PERCEIVED NEED TO WITHDRAW FROM THE TERRITORIES
• MAIN REASONS FOR COMING TO LIVE IN THE
  TERRITORIES
• IDENTIFICATION ACCEPTANCE OF INSTITUTIONS
  AUTHORIZED TO MAKE WITHDRAWAL DECISIONS
• PREFERRED BEHAVIORAL OPTIONS IN CASE OF SUCH A
  DECISION
• LEGITIMACY OF VARIOUS ACTIONS IN CASE OF SUCH A
  DECISION
• ATTITUDE TOWARDS PROFFERED COMPENSATION (EACH
  RESPONDENT WAS ASKED ABOUT ONE PRICE LEVEL ONLY)
• IDEOLOGICAL PROFILE OF RESPONDENT
• CURRENT LEVELS OF SOCIAL, COMMUNAL INDIVIDUAL
  STRESS
• DETAILED SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC BACKGROUND DATA

5
HIGHLIGHTS OF MAIN FINDINGS?(rounded
figures)

6

7

8

9

10

11
SCALE BUILDING METHODOLOGY

• DATA WERE USED TO CONSTRUCT FOUR SCALES OF
  POLITICAL ORIENTATION POLITICAL EXTREMISM
  ACCEPTANCE OF DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS
  WILLINGNESS TO RISK SELF OTHERS.
• THE SCALES WERE STATISTICALLY TESTED
• THE 2 BEST PREDICTIVE SCALES WERE THEN USED TO
  SEGMENT THE RESPONDENTS BY THEIR EXPECTED
  REACTION TO A WITHDRAWAL DECISION.

12
MAIN VARIABLES EMPLOYED IN SCALE BUILDING
13
Institutions which may decide withdrawal

14

15

16
The graded incremental principle of extremism

Will protest with legal means
Will fight with all means
may resort to violence
Will obey
17