Knowledge for development under climate change

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Knowledge for development under climate change

• Habiba Gitay
• World Bank Institute

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• A brief overview of climate change and risks to
  development
• knowledge and capacity

For publications and news on the latest climate
change initiatives Look for climate change on
www.worldbank.org includes Development Outreach
and Environment Matters
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Earth systems

• Interacting components between land, ocean and
  atmosphere

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Importance of greenhouse gases

• Greenhouse gases keep the earth habitable

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Increases in major greenhouse gases
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Past atmospheric concentrations of CO2
Concentration of carbon dioxide(CO2) in the
atmosphere has remained within tight bounds
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Observed changes
Average surface temperature
Melting Sea Ice / Glaciers / Permafrost
Increased precipitation e.g. in the northern
temperate areas
Sea level rise and storm surges
Extreme events increased frequency of
droughts, floods
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Observed impacts
Marine and coastal systems - mangroves, coral
reefs, coastal fisheries, erosion of coastlines
Human societies floods, droughts, sea level
rise/storm surges affected infrastructure and
livelihoods increased water scarcity,
malnutrition, vector and water borne diseases
(e.g. dengue fever, cholera, diarrhoea)
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Observed impacts
Impacts lends urgency risk losing developmental
gains
Terrestrial systems poleward and upward
migration of species/ecosystems increase in
frequency and intensity of pest and disease
outbreaks (e.g. in forests), wildfires. Changes
in growing seasons, increased in crops in
northern temperate areas, decrease in many parts
of Africa
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Inertia and lifetime of GHGs
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Recent Observations Near the top or above IPCC
projections
Rahmstorf et al Science 2007
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Managing climate risk

• Impacts and ability to manage them depends on
• Geographical location and exposure
• Present and historical climate
• Condition of natural resources (e.g. fresh water
  supplies, fishery, forests, agricultural
  production)
• Sensitivity
• Are the areas and populations near their
  climatic limit
• Socioeconomic, institutional factors
• Education
• Technical and financial capacity
• Political will

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Impacts likely to get worse
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A Global Deal for action

• Climate Change fundamental failure of markets
• Atmosphere suffers from tragedy of the commons
• Action has to be effective, economically
  efficient and equitable and be global
• Includes technology development and rapid sharing
  of technology and knowledge
• Finances for both adaptation and for low carbon
  economies
• Modified from Stern Noble 2007

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Bali Action Plan part of United Nations
Framework on Climate Change negotiations
Mitigation
Adaptation
Resource Provision Funding and Investment
Technology Development and Transfer
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Knowledge, capacity and resources

• Climate Change and how it affects development
• Develop human capacity
• Share knowledge rapidly
• Make the needed change, learn for implementation
  and share that knowledge
• Research and development - Knowledge generation
  for local context
• policy changes
• regulatory changes
• technological changes
• Innovations (Development Market Place as an idea)
• Scaling-up

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Knowledge Mitigation Option

•   Include introduction and/or scaling up of
• Improved energy efficiency and conservation
• cleaner oil and coal technologies
• renewable energy, including solar, wind and
  hydropower
• market mechanisms for carbon trading
• the role of forestry and agriculture, including
  reduced emissions from deforestation and
  degradation (REDD),
• policy instruments, including regulatory
  frameworks, as well as carbon taxes, incentives,
  subsidies and education to help change behavior
  patterns.

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Economically efficient technologies
Sweeney 2007
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Adaptation

• Reduce other impacts, adapt to changed conditions
• Use natural resources efficiently
• Change some input-intensive production systems to
  less intensive (e.g. agriculture)
• Fix what doesnt work now better prepared for
  the future. Reality..
• Better cope with present climatic extremes
• Deal with present climatic extremes in the
  context of all other pressures part of
  development. Action from communities, government
  and private sector

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Urgency means knowledge and capacity paramount

• Improve knowledge sharing on
• Early phase technologies and Approaches to
  adaptation
• Scaling up - policies and strategies to do so
  national action
• Enhance and maintain capacity
• Understanding of climate change in university
  curricula
• Active participation of stakeholders affected
• Implement learning by doing and sharing knowledge
  on early action
• Working across silos
• Better risk management of present climatic
  conditions and preparedness for future climate
• Large challenges for future generations
• Work towards Low carbon economies and resilient
  societies

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• Thank you
• More information at
• www.worldbank.org/ and click on
• climate change