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Cloud Computing Trends and Directions Prepared for IBM June 13, 2008

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Title: Cloud Computing Trends and Directions Prepared for IBM June 13, 2008


1
Cloud Computing Trends and DirectionsPrepared
for IBM June 13, 2008
  • David Cearley
  • Tom Bittman
  • Yefim Natis

2
What's Feeding the Cloud Computing Phenomenon?
Infrastructure Technologies Virtualization and
automation
Industrialization of IT Standardization and
commoditization (e.g., e-mail), open source
Data Center Pressures Growing costs of power and
space, server sprawl
Alternate Client Devices Explosion of form
factors, mobility, connectedness
Cloud
Elastic Services
Application Technologies From parallel
processing (grid, MapReduce, Hadoop) to Web 2.0,
SOA
Web
Internet
Information and E-Commerce
Web Platforms and Applications Elastically
scalable global class infrastructure and mashable
services built on WOA (e.g., REST, RSS/Atom)
Connectivity
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Networking Growth in connectivity and bandwidth
through the Internet
Data-Intensive Applications From massively
parallel (e.g., Google) to large data files
(e.g., YouTube)
Business Model Advertising subsidized, venture
funding for service model
3
What Is Cloud Computing? Myths to Explore
Cloud computing myths are growing as the
phenomenon gains popularity. Dont let the
promise derail what you need to get done!
Cloud computing is an architecture or an
infrastructure. Every vendor will have a
different cloud. SaaS is the cloud. Cloud
computing is a brand new revolution. All remote
computing is cloud computing. The Internet and
the Web are the cloud. Everything will be in the
cloud. The cloud eliminates private networks.
Myth 1 Myth 2 Myth 3 Myth 4 Myth 5 Myth
6 Myth 7 Myth 8
4
What Is Cloud Computing?Gartners Definition
Gartner defines cloud computing as A style of
computing where massively scalable IT-enabled
capabilities are provided "as a service" to
external customers using Internet technologies.
It would be easy to add a refining statement to
this definition to wit, where the consumers of
the services need only care about what the
service does for them, not how it is
implemented.
Things to Consider
  • The cloud versus cloud computing
  • Private clouds and the public cloud
  • Lowered barriers to entry, higher risk
  • Increased scale and elasticity potentially at
    lower cost
  • Global class not just enterprise class

5
Cloud Computing Four Perspectives, Four
Attributes
"All that matters is results I don't care how
it's done"
"I don't want to own assets I want to pay for
elastic usage, like a utility"
"I want accessibility from anywhere, from any
device"
"It's about economies of scale, with effective
and dynamic sharing"
Global-class industrialization of computing
resources and services
6
How Will Cloud Computing Develop?
Providers
Users
Technology
  • "Commodity" IT services will go cloud (e.g.,
    e-mail)
  • Barriers to entry will be lower, enabling
    startups (e.g., SmugMug)
  • Internal IT will also manage dynamic
    multisourcing from the cloud
  • Internal IT will modernize to compete with and
    leverage the cloud
  • Some organizations will dramatically shift to the
    cloud (especially SMBs)
  • Several mega-compute providers will develop
    (e.g., watch Akamai, EMC, IBM, Microsoft) but
    also many midsized
  • More SaaS offerings software business models
    will be disrupted
  • Hardware providers will become cloud computing
    providers, cloud providers become biggest
    customers
  • Service providers shift focus from process to
    service assembly and dynamic change
  • Acquisition Model Richer programmatic SLA
    interfaces
  • Business Model Standardization of usage metrics
  • Access Model Improved bandwidth and QOS
  • Technical Model Virtualization and automation,
    RTI, Web services, smart application design

7
Five Styles of Cloud Computing An
Infrastructure Viewpoint
Cloud Server Software
Cloud Software
Cloud Processing
Cloud Infrastructure
Client in the Cloud
Browser/ access
Browser/ access
Browser/ access
Browser/ access
Browser/ access
Personal application
Personal application
Personal application
Personal application
Personal application
End-user proc/storage
End-user proc/storage
End-user proc/storage
End-user proc/storage
End-user proc/storage
Server application
Server application
Server application
Server application
Server application
Server proc/storage
Server proc/storage
Server proc/storage
Server proc/storage
Server proc/storage
8
Industrialization of IT From Custom Software to
Assembled Software, to Services
9
What to Expect in the Cloud?
Business Applications (New Instances)
Off-Premises
97
75
On-Premises
2008
2013
10
Three Reasons Cloud Computing Is Not What You
Think
Only massively scaled cloud infrastructure
providers will succeed FALSE Midsized providers
that can leverage new technologies fast will
challenge massively scaled competitors.
Mature IT organizations will leverage cloud
computing less than less mature
FALSE Enterprises best prepared to leverage cloud
will be the most advanced (services-oriented)
or the least (current investments not an issue)
Cloud computing is mainly about technology
FALSE The most difficult part of cloud computing
is creating a truly services-oriented interface
and delivering to those service requirements
this will take time and invention.
11
What's Holding Cloud Computing Back?
12
Making Sense of the Cloud Alphabet Soup
Hardware managed by others
Elastic Internet resources
Shared applications
Fixed resources
Off-Premises
Cloud
Native Cloud Applications
Outsourcing
Web Hosting
SaaS
AIaaS
APaaS
Hosting
Cloud Platform
IaaS
Shared application infrastructure (AI) APaaS
Application Platform as a service IaaS
Integration as a Service
Infrastructure Utility
size of the cloudlets and overlap shown is not to
scale
Dedicated Web applications and Web content
Commodity (industrialized) computing resources
Programmable or programmatically accessible
resources
Dedicated applications
13
Cloud Computing and Cloud/Web Platform
  • Cloud
  • Exploiting External,Off-Premise Resources
  • External mgt/control with internal execution
    (cache)
  • New Programming Models
  • Cloud Enabling Data Centers, Applications
    Processes
  • Cloud/Web Platform
  • Programmatic programmable
  • Web interface architecture
  • Web services compositions

System Infrastructure
App Infrastructure
Application
Information
Business Process
REST
Map/Reduce
Python
DFS
Cloud Enablers
Cloud Services
14
Cloud Services Everything Is a Service
  • Cloud Service Taxonomy
  • System Infrastructure
  • Application Infrastructure
  • Applications
  • Information
  • Process
  • Ecosystem Management
  • Approaches
  • Provider/Consumer
  • Builder/Assembler
  • Individual/Ecosystem
  • Many Cloud/Web Platforms
  • The consumer's cloud/Web platform is the
    provider's data center, application or business
  • Business Models
  • Role of services
  • Revenue generation

Cloud/Web Platform 1
Site Hosting
Compute
Storage
Security
Application Mgmt.
Ecosystem Mgmt.
Information
Component
Bus. Process
Application
15
The Service Boundary Determines the Abstraction
Level
The provider optimizes everything below the
service boundary and hides the complexity from
the consumer The consumer accesses, configures
and/or programmatically extends the service and
builds everything needed above the service
boundary
The Physical Infrastructure inside the cloud
matters but indirectly
Solution
MTurk
Amazon Fulfillment Service
EZ Prints
AWIS
Feeds
Alexa Search
salesforce.com
Amazon FPS
Ecosystem Mgmt
Force.Com
BungeeConnect
Google App Engine
Cloud Enablers
Simple DB
S3
IBM Cloud Center Services
EC2
Cloud Platform
16
Building Solutions with Cloud Services(The
Cloud is a matter of perspective)
  • Manipulation Mashup
  • Access, program extend app., info. process
    services
  • Cloud Execution
  • Build and possibly store internally run in
    cloud
  • May use mashable services or expose as a mashable
    service
  • Full Cloud
  • Build, store, run, manage in the cloud
  • May use mashable services or expose as a mashable
    service
  • Hybrid Solution
  • Any combination of internal and external for
    build, store, run, manage

System Infra
App, Info, Process
App Infra
Cloud Execution
Mashup
SaaS
Full Cloud Platform
Internal
Browser/RIA Or Traditional Client
Consumer
Producer/Manager
17
Cloud Computing A Supply Chain
Cloud computing will spur an industry of cloud
computing brokers who discover and assemble
providers for end users
The providers in the cloud create a supply chain
from business process services to component
services
Services
The Internet
Service Brokers
18
Infrastructure and Operations From Silos to
Clouds
Sprawled Component-Orientation
2002
19
The Vision for Infrastructure and Operations
  • A real-time infrastructure is
  • An IT infrastructure shared across customers,
    business units or applications
  • where business policies and service-level
    agreements drive dynamic and automatic
    optimization of the IT infrastructure
  • thereby reducing costs while increasing agility
    and quality of service.
  • Policies
  • IT service definitions
  • Service agreements
  • Business priorities
  • Services
  • That meet business requirements

20
Modernizing Infrastructure RTI and Cloud
Computing
Traditional Computing
RTI, Infrastructure Utility
Cloud Computing
Buy assets and build technical architecture
Acquisition Model
Buy service
Buy service
Pay for fixed assets and overhead
Pay based on usage
Pay based on usage
Business Model
Internal network or intranet, any device
Internal network or intranet, corporate client
Internet, any device
Access Model
Single tenant, nonshared, static
Scalable, elastic, dynamic, shareable
Scalable, elastic, dynamic, multicustomer
Technical Model
21
Virtualization Consolidation, Deconsolidation
and Cloud Computing
SaaS
Applications
Application Streaming
Virtualization technologies create layers of
abstraction decoupling interfaces that enable
alternate delivery models
Software Appliances
Operating Systems
Grid Computing
Infrastructure as a Service
Hardware
Alternate Delivery
22
The Virtual Machine Phenomenon A Major Cloud
Enabler
  • Driving the Trend
  • Cost, power, space savings
  • Multicore systems
  • More important portability, agility
  • VM Penetration
  • The VM installed base was 2.9M in 2007 about 7
    of the opportunity
  • Cloud Impact
  • VMs will be a major container for cloud computing
    workloads, enabling dynamic distribution and
    efficiency

VM Penetration of Installed Workloads
61
60
40
20
7
0
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
  • Predictions
  • The installed base of VMs will grow more than
    tenfold between 2007 and 2011
  • One out of every four x86 workloads deployed or
    redeployed during 2008 will be installed in
    virtual machines
  • By 2012, the majority of x86 server workloads
    will be running in a virtual machine

23
Virtualization Forces Software Pricing and
Licensing Models to Morph
  • Fractional use, consolidated
  • Especially when consolidated to large servers
  • Multicore trend exacerbating issue
  • Dynamic change
  • Old friction Deployments, upgrades are rare
  • Now Deployments are fast, resource allocations
    change quickly
  • Dynamic movement
  • Old paradigm Tie software to serial numbers
  • Now Workloads can move dynamically between
    servers
  • Virtual machine packaging
  • Software-based appliances, pre-integrated
    software
  • Enabling cloud computing
  • Shift to pricing based on usage, workload, users,
    transactions away from fixed hardware

24
Virtualization Enables and Motivates Chargeback
A Foundation for Cloud
  • From Fixed to Variable Usage
  • Virtualization enables a move to utility pricing
  • Most businesses are not prepared to deal with IT
    as a variable expense
  • Tools and measurement standards needed
  • The Danger of a Frictionless Model
  • Old
  • CapEx requirement
  • Time to respond to requests
  • New
  • CapEx asynchronous, smaller
  • Rapid response (30X faster)
  • Chargeback helps provide the friction helps IT
    run as a business

25
Software AppliancesOn-Premise SaaS A Stepping
Stone
A pure software appliance is a software-only
solution that delivers pre-defined service(s)
through an application-specific interface, with
no accessible operating software.
  • VM packaging enables prepackaged solutions
  • Software-based appliances (SBAs)
  • Virtual software packages (VSPs)
  • Metadata can store relationships between them,
    service and operational characteristics (OVF is a
    start)
  • Can be managed, updated remotely (by provider)
    enabling on-premise SaaS
  • Can be dynamically moved from user to/from
    provider, between providers
  • Thins role of OS, creates meta OS

26
System and Application Infrastructure Services
Solution
  • Virtualized System Infrastructure
  • Hardware and system software (such as OS image,
    message broker, database)
  • Application Infrastructure
  • Database, Integration, Development, BPM
    technology, Registry/Repository, Content Mgt,
    Provisioning, etc.
  • App Platform as a Service (APaaS)
  • Based on a multi-tenant architecturefor creation
    of software as a service (SaaS) solutions
  • Web influenced Application Control Execution
    Models
  • Map/Reduce, DFS
  • Such as Google, Hadoop
  • Other parallel models (such as BOINC)

Process
Information
Application
Ecosystem Mgmt
Application Infrastructure
Cloud Enablers
System Infrastructure
Cloud Platform
27
Platforms, Application Platforms, SOA and SaaS
What you program
Application
Platform
Infrastructure
What you program to
What your platform uses and you should not
What your program never sees
28
An Application Platform Stack as a Cloud Service
29
SaaS-Enabled Application Platform
Multi-Tenancy, XTP and Fine-Grained Tracking
  • Multi-tenancy
  • Multi-tenant execution (isolation and sharing)
  • Tenant-aware security, monitoring, reporting and
    management
  • Tenant customization and user personalization
    within a tenant
  • Tenant-aware development (tools and metadata)
  • Tenant on- and off-ramping
  • User on- and off-ramping
  • Application on- and off-ramping and version
    control
  • Elasticity (just-in-time on-demand computing
    resources)
  • Fine-grained usage tracking, metrics and costing
  • XTP-grade global class advanced scalability,
    performance and availability
  • Integration/composition with other on- and
    off-premises resources

30
Choosing the Model of SaaS-enabling for Business
Applications
SoftwareOn-Premises
Enterprise
Application
Application Platform
Infrastructure OS
31
Application Platform as a ServiceStrengths and
Challenges
  • Low cost of entry for ISVs
  • Elastic scalability for all tenants
  • Relief of system management burdens for users
  • Rolling versioning aids extensibility,
    flexibility and antivirus protection
  • Full stack resource optimization improves
    price/performance
  • Community resource sharing reduces costs
  • Non-standard programming model (typical)
  • Data integrity and security in third-party hands
  • New and unproven, especially in mission-critical
    deployments
  • Reduced or no control of Service-Levels and
    Quality-of-Service
  • Potentially escalating TCO
  • Largely Unfamiliar vendors

32
The Spectrum of IT Options Off-Premises
Infrastructure Solutions
Illustration only, not a complete list of vendors
Some vendors (Magic, Cordys) sell a
cloud-enabled application platform, but choose
not to host an APaaS. The classic JEE and .NET
application platforms are not cloud-enabled.
33
Application Platform as a Service Bazaar
b
b
b
SEAP SaaS-enabled Application Platform XTP
eXtreme Transaction Processing
Minimal to none
Useful, but incomplete
Near complete
34
Application and Data/Information ServicesSweet
Spot for WOA-Centric Cloud Platforms
Solution
  • SaaS Web Applications
  • Multi-user or multi-tenant applications as a
    service
  • Programmatic access,configuration or extension
  • IFAPs, DOM manipulation, APIs
  • Components and Widgets
  • Service assembly
  • Information Feeds
  • Advertising, news and more
  • Data Access
  • Product catalog, pricing data,credit score and
    more.
  • Search

Process
Information
Application
Ecosystem Mgmt
Application Infrastructure
Cloud Enablers
System Infrastructure
Cloud Platform
35
Web Technologies and Standards The Essence of
the Cloud/Web Platform
  • URI/URL Resource Identification
  • RESTful Service Design
  • Minimal, generic verbs
  • Data-Centric ResourceManipulation
  • HTTP/XML, Json, DOM, Ajax
  • XML Standards
  • SIP, industry models(such as Accord)
  • Syndication (RSS/Atom)
  • Semantic Hypertext Semantic
    Web

Innovators Dilemma

Max. mainstream
Enterprise Computing
Cloud-Based Services
Functionality
Web-Centric Design
Min mainstream
Time
2008
2013
36
Web Technologies and StandardsInfluencing
Application Development SOA
  • New Clients and Access Models
  • Browsers, Ajax and RIA
  • Syndication (RSS/Atom)
  • Web-Oriented Architecture
  • URI/URL Resource Identification
  • RESTful Service Design
  • Minimal, generic verbs
  • Data-Centric Resource Manipulation
  • HTTP/XML, Json, DOM, Ajax
  • Web Standards
  • SIP, industry models (such as Accord)

Innovators Dilemma
Max. mainstream
Enterprise Computing
Functionality
Global Class Web Computing
Min mainstream
Time
2008
2013
37
Business Process ServicesWeb-Enabled B2B and B2C
Commerce
Solution
  • Business Actions
  • Sites, applications and widgets with action
  • Business Service Execution
  • Inputs Information, event/trigger, dashboard
    selection, SLA setting
  • Process human or automated action in the "real
    world"
  • Outcomes Information/content, events/triggers,
    physical product
  • Proxy actions Outcome deliveredto a third party
  • Existing and New Players
  • Existing ADP, Fed-X, UPS
  • New e-commerce, Web advertising, BPO, everyone
    else

Process
Information
Application
Ecosystem Mgmt
Application Infrastructure
Cloud Enablers
System Infrastructure
Cloud Platform
38
Key Trends inCloud Computing
The Trends
  • Cloud computing provides global-class
    industrialization of computing resources and is
    focused on external service delivery
  • Everything is a service But not everything is
    purchased as a service
  • Cloud/Web platforms provide programmatic access
    to Web-based services which act as a foundation
    to create compositions
  • Internal data-center-based cloud/Web platforms
    are as important as external cloud-based
    cloud/Web platforms
  • One company's data center or business process may
    be another company's cloud-based service
  • Virtual machines do more than consolidate they
    change computing paradigms, cultures, etc.
  • The biggest challenge in cloud computing is rich
    service orientation defining requirements and
    meeting them.
  • Providers need not themselves be massive but must
    be able to provide the necessary scalability to
    meet the expanding and contracting needs of
    consumers on demand and economically.

39
What we are telling the Enterprise
CIOs and enterprise architects should
  • Today (Monday Morning)
  • Embrace WOA principles, standards and best
    practices to create an internal cloud/Web
    platform for applications and information
    services
  • Direct emerging technology teams to evaluate
    cloud computing and cloud/Web platform
    technologies, and explore various adoption
    scenarios
  • Near Future (The Next 12 Months)
  • Demand that your technology providers explain how
    cloud computing will affect their offering and
    pricing strategies
  • Experiment with external cloud based services,
    establish governance models and exploit
    virtualization and RTI techniques to build cloud
    infrastructure internally.
  • Longer Term (Three to Five Years)
  • Employ ecosystems management services and
    techniques to ensure quality of service across
    cloud vendors and cloud platforms.
  • Determine if, when and how the enterprise should
    expose its information, application and/or
    processes to others as cloud services
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