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Genuine Progress Index for Atlantic Canada Indice de progrs vritable Atlantique The Genuine Progress

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Title: Genuine Progress Index for Atlantic Canada Indice de progrs vritable Atlantique The Genuine Progress


1
Genuine Progress Index for Atlantic Canada Indice
de progrès véritable - Atlantique The Genuine
Progress Index in Practice Auckland and
Wellington, 21-22 April, 2008
2
About GPI Atlantic
  • Non-profit, fully independent, research and
    education organization founded April, 1997. Based
    in Halifax Web site www.gpiatlantic.org
  • Committed to development of Genuine Progress
    Index (GPI) Measuring wellbeing sustainable
    development accurately and comprehensively
  • Towards full-cost accounting human, social,
    natural, and produced capital accounts
  • NS focus -gtNational and international activities

3
Origins
  • 1st GPI 1995 Redefining Progress, California
  • Emerged from critique of shortcomings of
    GDP-based measures of progress (Kuznets warning)
  • Distinguished from quality of life indicator
    systems by adding economic valuation
  • 1995 GPI single number Statcan critique
    starting point for NS GPI (1996) as pilot for
    Canada. 12 years developmental work.

4

Basic question How are we doing? What kind of NZ
are we leaving our children...?
5
Current way of answering that question
  • GDP-based measures of progress inadequate and can
    be dangerously misleading. E.g
  • Natural resource depletion as gain
  • No distinction re what is growing (e.g.
    pollution, crime US stats, sickness,
    cigarettes)
  • Vital social, environmental assets value of
    unpaid work, free time, health, education, equity
    ignored

6
Why We Need New Indicators - Policy Reasons
  • More energy use, greenhouse gas emissions,
    consumption, drug use make economy grow not the
    signals we may want to communicate
  • Preventive initiatives to conserve and use energy
    and resources sustainably, to reduce sickness,
    crime, poverty, greenhouse gas emissions, may be
    blunted, or inadequately funded

7
Indicators are Powerful
  • What we measure
  • reflect what we value as a society
  • determines what makes it onto the policy agenda
  • influences behaviour (e.g. students)
  • Logic not refuted From wilderness to mainstream
    OECD, EU, SNA, CIW

8
Natural environment
Society
Economy
9
That framework addresses question Are we living
sustainably? Source Hoggan, James. Globe
Presentation Communicating Sustainability, 2006
10
Measuring Wellbeing
In the GPI…
  • Health, free time, unpaid work (voluntary and
    household), and education have value
  • Sickness, crime, disasters, pollution are costs
  • Natural resources (e.g. forests) are capital
    assets
  • Reductions in greenhouse gas, crime, poverty,
    ecological footprint are progress
  • Growing equity signals progress

11
Beyond indicators and towards accounting and
policy shift… E.g.
  • Ideal world Neither indicators nor economic
    valuation is required Social, economic,
    environmental impacts would be taken into account
    in all decisions. BUT
  • GDP is accounting system, not indicator system.
    While economic growth statistics dominate,
    economic valuation currently has most impact on
    policy
  • In GPI, economic valuations add-on to
    indicators based on physical measurement brings
    holistic indicator set into policy arena

12
Examples of policy impacts
  • E.g. NS voluntary work worth 1.9 bill/year
  • Preventable chronic disease costs NS 500m in
    excess health care costs gt DHPP costs tobacco,
    obesity, inactivity gt e.g. HRM planning process
    smoke-free legislation
  • Full CBAs e.g. Solid Waste Halifax Harbour
    cleanup HRM transportation …. Etc.
  • Impact on policy can be indirect (e.g. forests)

13
Full-Cost Accounting 4 principles
  • Internalize externalities (e.g. GHG emissions)
  • Recognize economic value of non-market factors
    (e.g. voluntary work)
  • Fixed -gt variable costs (e.g. car registration,
    insurance a/c km driven)
  • values - strategic only inadequacy of as
    valuation instrument. Value larger

14
E.g. Full transport costs
  • Internal variable (Direct costs according to how
    much a person drives)
  • E.g. travel time, vehicle operation
  • Internal fixed (Direct costs that are not really
    changed when driving habits change)
  • E.g. vehicle ownership, registration/insurance,
    parking
  • External (Costs imposed on others)
  • - E.g. climate change, air pollution,
    congestion
  • Or direct/indirect (based on subjective
    experience)
  • E.g. subsidized parking

15
Per Capita and Total Estimates for Road Passenger
Transportation (C2002)
16
Each cost a potential headliner E.g. Congestion
costs NS 12m/yr
  • Lost time, gas, excess GHGs
  • Conservative Recurrent congestion only (not
    snow, roadworks, accidents etc.), AM-PM only, no
    freight, arterials only (no side-streets), based
    on lt50 posted limit, etc.
  • Small portion total costs

17
Average Car Costs (per vehicle-km) Ranked by
Magnitude
18
Aggregate Distribution of Costs for an Average
Car
19
Full-Cost Accounting Results
  • Overall full cost of N.S. road transportation
    system in 2002 6.4 billion - 13.3 billion
  • True cost is about 7,598/capita, of which 4,562
    are invisible costs
  • Fixed and external costs account for over 2/3 of
    total cost
  • These results indicate an inefficient,
    unsustainable transportation system where
    externalities conceal the full costs to society

20
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21
Results
  • Implementation of the Solid Waste-Resource
    Strategy led to an increase in operating and
    amortized costs from 48.6 million (53/capita)
    in the 1996-97 fiscal year to 72.5 million
    (77/capita) in the 2000-01 fiscal year.
  • An increased cost of 24 million (25/capita) for
    implementing the changes conventional accounts
    stop there

22
Full cost Accounting Results
  • The new NS solid waste-resource system in 2000-01
    produced net savings of at least 31.2 million,
    when compared to the old 1996-97 solid
    waste-resource system
  • This translates into savings of 33 for each Nova
    Scotian, versus a cost of 25 as suggested when
    comparing strictly the operating and amortized
    capital costs of the two systems

23
Benefits
  • Total benefits of 2000-01 system range from 79
    million to 221 million 84-236 pp, incl
  • 3.3 - 84.3 million in GHG emission reductions
  • 9 - 67 million in air pollutant reductions
  • 18.8 million in extended landfill life
  • 28.6 million in energy savings from recycling
  • 6.5 - 8.9 million in employment benefits
  • 1.2 - 1.9 million in avoided liability costs
  • 1.1 - 1.7 million in export revenue of goods
    and services
  • 187,000 in additional tourism

24
Energy savings per tonne of waste recycled
25
Costs
  • Total costs of 2000-01 solid waste-resource
    system were 96.6-102.7 million
  • 72.4 m. in operating and amortized capital costs
  • 14.3 m. for beverage container recycling prog.
  • 2.7 million for used tire management program
  • 1.6 million in RRFB operating and admin costs
  • 5 - 9.5 million to increase participation
  • 220,000 - 1.8 million in nuisance costs

26
Solid Waste Conclusions
  • 1995 NS Solid Waste-Resource Strategy has led to
    a considerable net benefit, both in monetary and
    non-monetary terms
  • 1) The solid waste-resource system in 2000-01,
    despite increased operating and amortized capital
    costs, provided a net savings of between 31
    million and 167.7 million compared to the
    operating and amortized capital costs of the old
    system

27
Solid Waste Conclusions
  • 2) Nova Scotia is a leader both internationally
    and nationally in solid waste diversion.
  • 3) The accessibility, comprehensiveness, and
    levels of waste being composted and recycled have
    all improved since the introduction of the Solid
    Waste-Resource Strategy.

28
This is Genuine Progress
  • Access to curbside recycling in Nova Scotia
    jumped from less than 5 in 1989 to 99 today
  • 76 of residents now have access to curbside
    organics pickup
  • Both are by far the highest rates in the country

29
Policy uses of FCA
  • Three Steps
  • Accounting basis (GPI)
  • System of financial incentives and penalties
    government action
  • Prices that reflect true benefits and costs

30
The Genuine Progress Index - 85 detailed reports
to date
  • Time Use
  • Economic Value of Unpaid Childcare and Housework
    v
  • Economic Value of Civic and Voluntary Work v
  • Value of Leisure Time v
  • Working Time and Employment v

31
Nova Scotia Genuine Progress Index Components
  • Natural Capital
  • Soils and Agriculture (3 v 2 …)
  • Forests v
  • Marine Environment/Fisheries v
  • Water Resources / Water Quality v
  • Energy v
  • Air Quality v
  • Human Impact on the Environment
  • Greenhouse Gas Emissions v
  • Sustainable Transportation v
  • Ecological Footprint Analysis v
  • Solid Waste v

32
Nova Scotia Genuine Progress Index Components
  • Living Standards
  • Income Distribution v
  • Debt and Assets ….
  • Economic Security ….
  • Social and Human Capital
  • Population Health v
  • Educational Attainment v
  • Costs of Crime v

33
Next Steps - (A) Complete detailed, separate
components
  • Released 08 Education, HRM transportation
    Complete last 3 components by June 08
  • 90 detailed reports Most complete data set
    available to any jurisdiction in North America to
    measure wellbeing and sustainable devt
  • Statcan advice bottom up, methodological, data
    integrity. Withstand expert scrutiny.
    Transparency, references.

34
Next steps (B) Integration
  • Now -gt policy utility, integration, update
  • Headline indicators community (May 08)
  • Database easily updatable, replicable (Jul.08)
  • Headline indicators provincial (Sept. 08)
  • Oct. 08 Major release Formal presentation to
    Premier, Government, and People of NS Landmark
    moment in evolution of GPI

35
Different GPIs Shared principles, objectives,
strategy
  • Shared critique of GDP-based measures
  • Shared understanding of inter-related nature of
    reality, and need to integrate social,
    environmental, and economic measures in a
    comprehensive system
  • Shared strategy of using economic valuations
    (conversation with Redefining Progress)

36
Different GPI Methods, Approaches
  • Monetization of all variables vs view that many
    measures not amenable to monetization (-gt
    comprehensiveness)
  • Aggregation or not (-gt communication, doorway,
    weighting, policy utility, and double counting
    not an issue, so no need to omit evidence from
    any component
  • Top-down framework vs bottom-up (eg by
    component, forest example, educ. framework)

37
Different GPI Methods, Approaches
  • Start with personal consumption add household
    work? (-gt challenge growth paradigm? a green
    GDP? replace GDP?)
  • Range of technical issues (stocks vs flows, etc.)
  • Communication All at once vs infiltration

38
Therefore communication
  • Must speak effectively to 3 audiences
  • Experts (credibility as basis)
  • Policy audience
  • General public (use of media)
  • Infiltration over time vs one big release Water
    against a rock (others including govt. cite GPI
    s as own radio talk shows)

39
Politics and Uptake Measuring progress is
normative
  • But GPI based on consensus values
  • Economic and livelihood security
  • Health, free time
  • Educational attainment
  • Strong and safe communities
  • Clean environment, healthy natural resources

40
Political implications
  • Non-partisan Evidence-based decision making
  • Good news (e.g. waste, air quality, seniors,
    employment) Bad news (e.g. GHGs, old forests)
    Improvements (e.g. income dist.)
  • Consensus on goals, vision. Politics is about how
    to get there. E.g. GHG reductions, poverty
    reduction goal vs strategy
  • Comparisons NS, Canada, Provinces, Intl

41
Examples of results The good, the bad, and the
ugly…
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49
Volunteerism Atlantic Provinces lead (formal
rate)
50
Examples of forest results
51
Forest Area by Age Class, NS 1958-99
52
Volume 1, Figure 4
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54
Volume 1, Figure 6
55
Volume 1, Figure 3
56
Changes in Atlantic Bird Species Populations
57
Recreational Brook Trout Caught and Retained in
Nova Scotia 1975-1995
58
Excess clearcutting, loss of natural age
species diversity have resulted in loss of
  • valuable species
  • wide diameter and clear lumber that fetch premium
    market prices
  • resilience and resistance to insect infestation
  • wildlife habitat, bird population declines
  • forest recreation values -gt nature tourism

59
This represents substantial depreciation of a
valuable natural capital asset.
  • decline in forested watershed protection 50
    drop in shade-dependent brook trout
  • soil degradation and leaching of nutrients that
    can affect future timber productivity
  • substantial decline in carbon storage capacity
    increase in biomass carbon loss
  • decline in essential forest ecosystem services

60
The Good News Volume 2 Best Forestry
Practices in N. S.
  • Selection harvesting increases forest value and
    provides more jobs
  • Shift to value-added creates more jobs
  • Restoration forestry is a good investment
  • What incentives can encourage restoration
  • NB Parallels to wetland restoration efforts

61
Natural Resource Accounts are not enough! - Onus
on producers
  • Measuring the Demand Side of the Sustainability
    Equation
  • e.g. Forests 20 of worlds people consume 84
    paper 20 consume 1
  • The equity dimension of sustainability
  • Reporting to Canadians on impacts of behaviour -
    e.g. GHGs

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64
Ecological Footprint, 1961-2003
65
NS Footprint Projected to 2020
Figure 16, The Nova Scotia Ecological Footprint,
GPI Atlantic 2001
66
Ecological Footprint Projections, Canada,
1995-2020
67
Nova Scotias Ecological Footprint
  • NS Average Ecological Footprint is estimated at
    8.1 hectares (compared to 1.8 ha available
    globally per person)
  • If all the worlds people consumed at this level,
    we would need 4 planets
  • Components human impact on the
    environment……………………..

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Nova Scotia Criteria Air Contaminant Emissions
(kg/capita) 1990-2005
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Positive Approach Can we do it? Percentage Waste
Diversion in Nova Scotia
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Challenges to Policy Adoption
  • Long-term vs short-term (while time running out
    and window of opportunity narrows
  • Science as certainty vs precautionary principle
  • Materialism / consumption addiction
  • BUT growing awareness and concern…

82
Issues of Concern for Canadians 2007 Source
TNS Canadian Facts, 2007
83
Top Priority Issues for Government Source Centre
for Research and Information on Canada (CRIC).
Portraits of Canada Survey. 2005
84
Time is right E.g. NS Govt commitments 2006-08
  • Demonstrate international leadership by having
    one of the cleanest and most sustainable
    environments in the world by the year 2020 (Bill
    146 Environmental Goals and Sustainable
    Prosperity Act
  • Becoming the best place to live means scoring
    well on quality of life indicators like those
    produced by Genuine Progress Index Atlantic
    (Opportunities for Sustainable Prosperity. 2006)
  • Power of Green Conference, 2007 (Ec. Devt)

85
Maintain and update GPI
  • Strongly recommend period of study, reflection,
    consultation
  • Took nearly 12 years to get here, another year to
    investigate application appropriate e.g.
    interdepartmental task force
  • Understand methods and data sources, select
    appropriate indicators
  • NS Govt will report GPI results (Community
    Counts)

86
Considerations
  • New database key to easy updating, comparison,
    replication
  • Data sources (a) official/available mostly
    Statcan (b) provincial e.g. forest
    inventories, waste diversion -gt development (c)
    new surveys (e.g. education) (d) local data
    (Community GPI)
  • Time, money, resources depend on indicator
    selection. But cf resources required for GDP How
    often is that needed?

87
Data challenges
  • National vs local / community
  • Conceptual inadequacies (indicator choices)
  • E.g. education We could not answer the question
    How educated are Nova Scotians?
  • Conventional output indicators cant do so
  • Development of new indicators, data sources,
    measurement methods is needed multiple
    literacies
  • Comprehensive list of ideal indicators

88
Conclusion
  • GPI key tool to achieve sustainability targets,
    because it measures progress in way that joins
    social, economic environmental objectives, and
    accounts for true benefits and costs
  • Measuring progress towards objectives is an
    essential mark of genuine commitment to those
    goals and objectives
  • NZ has potential to become genuine model

89

GPI Measuring what we value to leave a better NZ
for our children
90
Genuine Progress Index for Atlantic Canada Indice
de progrès véritable - Atlantique
  • www.gpiatlantic.org
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