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Demography as Destiny: How our Demographic Future will Change the Rules

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residential choice is related to the complex processes of aging, household ... Households are constrained in their choices by income ... Geopolitics at the Border ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Demography as Destiny: How our Demographic Future will Change the Rules


1
Demography as Destiny How our Demographic Future
will Change the Rules
  • William A.V. Clark
  • Department of Geography
  • University of California, Los Angeles

2
Overview
  • Preamble
  • mobility and choices
  • Demographic changes
  • diversity, aging, migration, and
    distributions
  • Changes in the rules
  • race, aging, laws, and geography
  • Thinking about the future

3
Preamble (1)
  • The Life Course Paradigm
  • residential choice is related to the complex
    processes of aging, household formation, and
    seeking and keeping jobs.
  • The moves that come about change the residential
    mosaic

4
Preamble (2) Residential Mobility
  • People choose neighborhoods and neighbors
  • and express preferences for different types of
    places
  • and people
  • Households are constrained in their choices by
    income
  • Most Households are motivated by safer
    neighborhoods
  • Households with children are motivated by school
    quality
  • Aging households are motivated by retirement

5
CHANGING DEMOGRAPHY
  • Continuing migration and growing diversity
  • Increasing aging
  • Regional change

6
The ContextWorld Population Change
  • 1900 ---- 1.6 billion
  • 2000 ---- 6.1 billion

7
Continuing Immigration
  • Approximately 34 million legally admitted foreign
    born in the US by 2004
  • Nearly half admitted in the last decade and a
    half
  • Approximately 10.3 million undocumented residents
    in the US in 2004

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11
Californias Future A Mosaic of Minorities
2000
2010
2020
Asian/other
AfricanAmerican
12
35Latino
39Latino
31Latino
7
14
15
6
6
50 Anglo
45 Anglo
40 Anglo
34.7 million
40.0 million
45.4 million
Source CA Demographic Research Unit (12/98).
12
The World will be Gray
13
Gray Dawn-More gray heads than toddlers
  • Large scale growth of the old, elderly and very
    old - the silver century
  • Increasing dependency ratios both at the World
    Scale and in The United States

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15
Womens life expectancy
16
The Chance of Meeting a 65 year oldData for
Western Affluent Societies
  • Before the Industrial Revolution
  • 1 in 40
  • At the turn of the last Century
  • 1 in 25
  • In 1990
  • 1 in 10
  • In 2040
  • 1 in 4

17
GEOGRAPHIC CHANGE
  • Increasing dispersal of ethnic populations from
    urban cores
  • Growth of undocumented populations in non-border
    states
  • North Carolina 692 increase
  • Georgia 571 increase

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20
Changing Rules and Power Dynamics
  • Racial and ethnic change and the power of
    ethnic concentration
  • Aging and the rule of the AARP
  • A society of rules versus undocumented
    immigration
  • Metropolitan versus non-metropolitan power

21
A Monochrome or Race Based Society
  • Continuing immigration and the relative high
    fertility of some immigrant groups creates the
    possibility of ethnic enclave voting blocs
  • OR
  • Monochrome society - high levels of intermarriage
    and the emergence of a non- race based
    organization of society

22
Multi- ethnicity
  • 2.4 of the US population (6.8 million) reported
    -more than one race in 2000
  • Hawaii - 21.2 percent
  • Alaska - 5.4 percent
  • California - 4.7 percent
  • Oklahoma- 4.5 percent

23
Changing Local Electorates
  • Ethnic pluralities replacing Anglo majorities in
    the population
  • New political calculus changes how minorities
    become empowered
  • California A harbinger of resulting tensions
    possibilities

24
Ethnic Pluralities Replace Anglo Majority
1990
2010
Anglos no longer a majority
SFO
LA
25
Aging and the Rule of the AARP
  • 35 million people are 65
  • 59 million people are 55
  • Voting percentages of people over 55 are four
    times greater than people under 35
  • A split between older (white) households who want
    a social safety net and younger minority
    households who want education

26
A Society of RulesGeopolitics at the Border
  • Laws grew INS budget at the border for
    construction of fences, roads, surveillance
    equipment

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29
Urban and Rural Competition2000 Census
  • Growth of suburban and non-metro populations
  • Decline of the influence of central cities

30
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31
OBSERVATIONSQuestions for a new Century
  • Can we (should we) move away from race based
    policies?
  • Will age and youth splinter or coalesce?
  • Will economic inequality divide US society?
  • Will we fragment geographically?

32
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