Control Without Control: From Complexity to the Management of Innovation

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Control Without Control From Complexity to the
Management of Innovation

• M. Mitchell Waldrop

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Adventures in Complexity1992-2002
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The Frustrations ofSocial Science

• Reductionism?
• People arent particles ? no math
• People arent identical ? no laws
• Statistics?
• Misses too much of the good stuff
• Rational Economic Man?
• Rationality (very) bounded

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The Frustrations ofManagement

• In Transition From Technocracy
• Industrial Revolution Scientific Management
• Post-WW II Analyze, Organize, Predict, Manage
• Apotheosis Great Societyand Vietnam
• ... to What?
• Triumph of the Nerds Knowledge workers
• The New Economy Globalization high tech
• Relentless change Adaptive organizations

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The Frustrations ofNational Security

• A Schizophrenic World
• Interconnection
• Global Economy
• Global Environment
• Fragmentation
• Post-Cold War Geopolitics
• Jihad versus MacWorld
• Accelerating Change
• Technology Explosion
• Population Explosion
• Education and Rising Aspirations

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All the Same Frustration

• Metaphors, Mental Models Industrial Age
• Hierarchy, authority, rationality, equilibrium,
  predictability
• Deep Emotional Roots
• Need for Order and Control A belief that people
  have to be kept in line
• The World Post-Industrial Age
• Watch, Adapt, Thrive on Change
• Equally Deep Emotional Roots
• Need for autonomy A belief in Power to the
  People!
• ButHow to Make it Work?

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Is Complexity the Answer?

• The Bad News
• There is no such thing as Complexity Theory!
• The Good News
• Thats Okay
• Complexity is a Rich Source of New Metaphors

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New Metaphors

• Systems Level Science
• Global tectonics, global climate, global
  biosphere
• Condensed matter physics, superconductivity,
  phase transitions
• Chaos theory, nonlinear dynamics
• Biosciences
• Micro
• Molecular biology, cell biology, immune
  systems, embryonic development...
• Macro
• Ecology, evolutionary dynamics, insect colonies...

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New Metaphors (II)

• Cognitive Systems
• Psychology, neuroscience
• AI, ALife, robotics
• Human organization theory, management science
• Computational Sciences
• Computational complexity theory
• Distributed computing
• Internet, network operating systems
• And of course, computers for simulation

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What They Have in Common

• Massively Parallel
• Many agents interacting at once
• Everything effects everything else
• Adaptive
• Agents constantly adapting to each other
• Endlessly shifting rivalries and alliances
• Decentralized
• No one (completely) in charge

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Control Without Control

• Agents are free to do their own thingBut
  good stuff has to happen anyway
• OrResponsibility without Authority

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Control Without ControlA Profound Management
IssueAnd A Profound Scientific Issue
Massachusetts General Hospital
Jonathan Cohen
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Control Without ControlA Profound Policy Issue

• Paradigmatic Examplethe Economy
• Command Economy..........Invisible
  Hand..........Law of Jungle
• But it Doesnt Just Happen
• Requires a Framework
• Law, Regulation, Fiscal Social Policy ...
• Transport, Energy, Banking, Information ...
• Customs, Mores, Social Norms ...

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The ChallengeFind the Vital Center

• Create a framework An environment in which
  individual choice, individual initiative, and
  individual interests have free reignand yet
  converge on a desirable result anyway.

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Control Without ControlExamples Everywhere

• Environmental Regulation
• Unabomber .... Market-Based.... Tragedy of
  Commons
• Education
• Rote Drill............Exploratory
  Educn..........Sandbox
• Management
• Micro-mngmt........Adaptive Corpn............
  Sandbox
• Management of Innovation
• Products Now........Change the
  World.........Sandbox

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The Revolution That Made Computing Personal
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The ARPA Community

• J.C.R. Licklider (1915-1990)
• Founder of IPTO (1962)
• Time-Sharing(Personal Computing)
• Networking(Arpanet, Internet, Ethernet)
• Graphics Interface(Windows, Mouse...)
• Creation of Computer Science(A generation of
  visionary engineers)

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PrerequisiteFreedom to Make Mistakes

• Advanced Research Projects Agency
• 1958 No more surprises like Sputnik!
• The ARPA Style
• Fast Response to New Ideas
• Long-Term (10-year) Focus
• Minimal Red Tape
• An Atmosphere of Trust

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Framework (1)A Compelling Mission

• J.C.R. Licklider (1960) Man-Computer
  Symbiosis
• Computers Rote, Algorithmic Tasks
• Humans Intuitive, Heuristic Tasks
• Computers Individual Empowerment
• Enhance Creativity, Exploration, Discovery
• Democratize Access to Information
• Encourage Community Collaboration

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Framework (2)The Right People

• Bureaucratic Allies
• AFOSR, NRL, NASA, NSF, NIH ...
• Fellow Travelers
• Project MAC (MIT) Doug Engelbart (SRI) Rand
  Newell Simon ...
• Centers of Excellence
• MIT, Carnegie Mellon, Stanford, Berkeley ...

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Framework (3)Communication Feedback

• Activist Manager
• Right direction? Making Progress?
• PI Meetings
• Intergalactic Network (April 26, 1963)
• If such a network as I envisage nebulously
  could be brought into operation, we would have at
  least four large computers, perhaps six or eight
  small computers ... not to mention the remote
  consoles and Teletype stationsall churning
  away.

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Framework (4)A Self-Exciting System

• Hand-Picked Successors
• Ivan Sutherland Pushed Graphics
• Bob Taylor Launched ArpanetOrganized PARC
  Computer Group
• Larry Roberts Designed and Completed Arpanet
• Education
• A rising generation of computer science
  students trained in the ARPA visionLicks vision

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The Bottom Line?

• A Framework for Innovation?
• Prerequisite Long Time Horizon
• I. A Compelling Mission
• II. The Right People
• III. Communication Feedback
• IV. A Self-Exciting System
• A New Research Agenda?
• Explore the many metaphors for Control Without
  Control