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Winds Role in the Global Energy Market


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Title: Winds Role in the Global Energy Market

Winds Role in the Global Energy Market
Prof. Arthouros Zervos Chairman
Global Wind Energy Council
President European Wind Energy Association
  • Athens 28-2-2006

Global representation for the wind energy sector
  • Wind energy is increasingly becoming an
    international business sector, spreading beyond
    its original markets in a few European countries,
    India and the United States. The major
    manufacturers and project developers now operate
    across all five continents. At the same time,
    the leading wind power Associations around the
    world have become increasingly linked through
    overlapping membership and bilateral activities.
  • The Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) has been
    established to be the global forum for the wind
    energy sector, uniting the wind industry and its
    representative associations.

The Members of GWEC
  • GWEC represents a broad sectorial and
    geographical cross section of the Global wind
    energy community.
  • Members are the leading national and continental
    associations representing the different
    continents, plus the major turbine and components
    manufacturers, developers and energy companies.
  • The members of GWEC operate in over fifty
    countries and represent
  • Over 1500 companies, organisations and
  • 99 of the worlds 59.000 MW installed wind power

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The mission of GWEC
  • GWEC s mission is to ensure that wind power
    establishes itself as one of the worlds leading
    energy sources, providing substantial
    environmental and economic benefits. The main
    objective is to promote the development and
    growth of wind energy around the world through
  • Policy development
  • To participate in policy and regulatory forums
    that can assist the creation of frameworks for
    wind power development.
  • Business leadership
  • To provide the strategic and business leadership
    needed to engage external stakeholders.
  • Global outreach
  • To work with emerging markets to transfer
    know-how and strengthen the development of wind
    energy worldwide.
  • Information and education
  • To serve as a platform for providing quality
    information, expertise, analysis and data about
    wind energy.

Evolution of energy prices
Energy prices have reached a new floor from which
they can only recede temporarily.
World primary energy demand (IEA)
Are the world's fossil fuel resources abundant
enough to feed such an impressive growth?

Adequacy of Resources
  • The energy outlook studies from government bodies
    and trans-national organisations present, in
    consonance, a comforting picture looking to the
  • soaring energy needs will be met by an ever
    expanding supply base.
  • These studies, trusted and quoted by key business
    players and policy makers, have lately been
    challenged by a growing faction of dissenters who
    question their basic assumptions.
  • Concerns over the adequacy of resources have been
    stirred in the context of consistently rising
    energy prices

Conventional oil discoveries and production
Production overtook discoveries in the 80s
opening a growing gap we are consuming every
year more than three times as much oil as we can
Source F.Varela, RES, GWEC
The Oil Gap
Oil production will peak in the next decade and
decline ever after. Unconventional sources cannot
compensate for the massive gap.

Source F.Varela, RES, GWEC
Gas discoveries and production
Source F.Varela, RES, GWEC
Gas supply forecast vs. projected demand
Natural gas production will peak 15 years later
and wont be able to support the expected
additions of power generation capacity.
Primary energy oil and gas supply gaps in IEAs
projected demand
The gaps in oil and gas supply combined represent
10 of the primary energy demand in 2020 and 18
by 2030.
Source F.Varela, RES, GWEC
Gas demand by sector vs. available supply
Gas-fired power generation capacity, projected
vs. sustainable
Source F.Varela, RES, GWEC
  • The worlds energy resources are not sufficient
    to sustain the expected growth trends. The
    current fuel mix will change significantly in the
    mid term future as a growing gap develops between
    the expected demand and the available supply of
  • There will be no such thing as a business as
    usual future. An unforeseen potential will
    become available to wind energy as a result of
    gas supply limitations. Up to 1200 GW of extra
    capacity could potentially be installed by 2030
    without major policy efforts as wind power enters
    its market era sooner than expected.

The Candidates to Fill the Gas Gap
  • Coal
  • Nuclear
  • Wind
  • Other renewables (PV, Solar Thermal Power,
    Biomass, Geothermal)
  • The gas gap offers an enormous additional
    potential for wind power that was not foreseen in
    the traditional wind capacity forecasts. Not only
    is this potential technically realizable, but it
    wouldn't require any extraordinary policy
  • Although wind power would have to vie against
    other alternatives for this new market, it
    clearly stands in a privileged position as one of
    the most cost-effective.

Wind Competitive Posture
Near-Term Opportunity
Long-Term Competitiveness
Challenge Period
Wind without support
Wind with support
New Coal-Fired Generation Cost
New Gas-Fired Generation Cost
Source Platts Analytics
Short Term Projections
Global growth scenario 2005 2010
Total MW installed - 2005
Annual MW installed - 2005
Projected Installations (MW) 2006-2010

Total MW installed - 2010

Top 15 total installed MW 2006-2010
  • 1. United States 15,000 19.8
  • 2. Spain 10,000 13.2
  • 3. Germany 6,600 8.7
  • 4. India 6,000 7.9
  • 5. Canada 4,300 5.7
  • 6. France 4,000 5.3
  • 7. United Kingdom 3,500 4.6
  • 8. Portugal 3,000 4.0
  • 9. China 3,000 4.0
  • 10. Brazil 2,000 2.6
  • 11. Australia 1,500 2.0
  • 12. Japan 1,500
  • 13. Italy 1,300 1.7
  • 14. Greece 1,000 1.3
  • 15. Sweden 1,000 1.3
  • The rest 11,800 15.6
  • Total the world 75,500 100

84.4 63,700
Top 16-30 total installed MW
2006 - 2010
16. Mexico 1,000 1.3 17. Norway
900 1.2 18.
Denmark 800 1.0 19. Korea South
800 1.0 20. New Zealand
800 1.0 21. Taiwan 700 0.9 22. Ireland
600 0.8 23. Netherlands 600 0.8 24.
Turkey 600 0.8 25. Egypt
0.8 26. Austria 500 0.7 27.
Poland 400 0.5 28.
Argentina 400 0.5 29.
Belgium 300 0.4 30.
Finland 300 0.4 The
rest 2,500 3.3

12.3 9,300

Global vision
Why Scenarios?
  • images of alternative futures
  • neither predictions nor forecasts
  • image of how the future could unfold
  • useful tools for investigating alternative future
    developments and their implications
  • Scenarios can create a vision for the future and
    guide decision makers

  • Are the worlds wind resources large enough and
    appropriately distributed geographically to
    achieve a level of 12 penetration?
  • What level of electricity output will be required
    and can this be accommodated in the existing grid
  • Is wind technology sufficiently developed to meet
    this challenge?
  • With the current status of the wind industry, is
    it feasible to satisfy a substantially enlarged
    demand and what growth rates will be required?

Is There Enough Wind?
  • The worlds wind resources are estimated to be
    53.000 TWh/year.
  • 2001 global electricity consumption is
  • This is predicted to rise to 25.579 TWh/year by
    2020 (IEA).
  • Lack of resource is unlikely ever to be a
    limiting factor.
  • The total global wind resource that is
    technically recoverable is more than twice as
    large as the projection for the worlds entire
    electricity demand by 2020.

The worlds wind resources, TWh (World total
53,000 TWh)
Offshore wind resources in Europe (electricity
production in TWh/year)
12 wind powered by 2020 Annual new capacity MW
12 wind powered by 2020 Cumulative New Capacity

Projected global electricity consumption and
wind electricity output figure is the increase
in global electricity demand
12 wind power in 2020 Regional breakdown of GW
Global Summary for the Year 2020
  • 12 global electricity demand.
  • 716,491 wind turbines installed.
  • 3,054 TW hours of wind powered electricity.
  • 1,245,030 MW wind installed.
  • Cost reduction to 2.45 eurocents/kWh,
    installation cost of 512 euro/kW.
  • 2,338,000 jobs.
  • Annual investment of 82 billion euro.
  • Cumulative savings of 10,771 million tons of CO2.

Wind energy capacity projections and potential
extra capacity due to gas unavailability
Source F.Varela, RES, GWEC
EREC - Advanced Policies Scenario for Primary
Energy Supply
EREC - Advanced Policies Scenario for Electricity
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