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UK Foresight Ageing Population

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UK Ageing Population. UK Foresight Ageing Population Exercise 1999-2001 ... UK Ageing Population Fertility. Slide courtesy BBC. 4/6/09 ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: UK Foresight Ageing Population


1
UK Foresight Ageing Population
  • Brian Ridsdale
  • Population Ageing Associates

2
Topics for Discussion
  • UK Ageing Population
  • UK Foresight Ageing Population Exercise
    1999-2001
  • Whats happened since 2001?
  • What should happen next?

3
Brian Ridsdale
  • Worked on two Foresight Task Forces
  • Founded UK Actuaries Ageing Population Group
  • Partner, Population Ageing Associates
  • Chairman, Continuous Mortality Investigation

4
1. UK Ageing Population
  • Longevity
  • Migration
  • Fertility

5
UK Ageing Population LongevitySlide courtesy BBC

6
UK Ageing Population Fertility Slide courtesy
BBC

7
UK Population Changes 2004-2050 Main Projection
8
UK Population Changes 2004-2050 Low Fertility
9
UK Population Changes 2004-2050 High Fertility
10
  • UK Foresight Ageing Population
  • 1999 - 2001 Cycle
  • Foresight is a national capacity to think ahead.
    The aim is to increase UK exploitation of
    science.
  • Foresight Programme 2004

11
UK Foresight Ageing Population
  • 2001 Conclusions

12
Doom or Boom?
  • The AGE SHIFT can be seen as a portent of doom or
    a challenge and an opportunity
  • We are faced with an ageing population
  • People are staying younger for longer

13
Key Areas Where the Ageing Population Will Impact
  • Employment, lifelong learning, leisure
  • Finance
  • Health and social care
  • Design of products and services
  • Use of information and communications technology
    (ICT)

14
Implications for Employment
  • Current perceptions about working life/retirement
    need to change
  • Reconsider the notion of formal retirement.
  • Flexible approach to retirement supported by
    flexible working patterns
  • Development of portfolio careers
  • Treatment on basis of competence rather than age
  • Positive incentives to remain in the workforce

15
Implications for Pensions
  • Can we sustain a culture in which people enter
    the workforce later and leave earlier?
  • When the state retirement pensions was introduced
    life expectancy beyond pensionable age was about
    3 years.
  • Keeping people economically active saves public
    money and boosts economy.

16
Lifelong Learning
  • Two out of three jobs require ICT and we shall
    create a new fault line in the employment of
    older people unless lifelong learning becomes an
    established part of our programme
  • Tessa Jowell
  • Minister for State for Employment

17
New Financial Services for an Older Population
  • Pensions
  • Equity Release
  • Long Term Care
  • The industry needs to differentiate its products
    so that it can cater both for younger, richer
    retirees and older, poorer pensioners

18
Implications for Health and Social Care
  • The fastest growing age group is the over 80s
  • Scope for technological advances to support
    independent living
  • Education for healthy ageing vital
  • Caring for more older people creating pressure on
    public sector budgets
  • Regional implications

19
Inclusion by Design
  • Design for the young and youll exclude the old
    design for the old and youll include the young
  • Gero von Randow
  • Siemens

20
Information and Communications Technology (ICT)
  • Internet shopping is only the start - there will
    be changes across the board, from education,
    healthcare, access to information, personal
    contacts and communication, public services and
    transport, through local and national government
    and democratic processes
  • As ICT use spreads into older age groups - and
    older people constitute an ever large proportion
    of the population - their lifestyles and needs
    will increasingly determine the demand for ICT
    based products, services and applications

21
The Grey Pound - Opportunities
  • Changes in existing markets
  • New home markets
  • New international markets

22
Challenges
  • Missing the boat!
  • Risk of increasing social exclusion
  • Need to balance needs of older people with
    reasonable taxation of others

23
The Age Shift- Priorities for Action
  • Recommendations fall into three groups
  • Helping business to meet the age shift
  • Planning for an ageing society
  • New research directions

24
UK Foresight Ageing Population
  • Whats happened since 2001?

25
UK Foresight Ageing Population Whats happened
since 2001? - examples
  • Public sector initiatives
  • Foresight The Age Shift Priorities for action
  • Winning the Generation Game
  • Securing Good Health for the Whole Population
  • Regional networks and groups
  • Business
  • Trade associations initiative
  • Voluntary/charity sector
  • Royal Society of Arts User-centred design
  • Age Concern initiatives

26
UK Foresight Ageing Population Whats
happened? - PAA activities
  • Regional Strategy Reviews
  • East of England
  • London
  •  Developing the Mature Market
  • 'Older Richer Fitter identifying the customer
    needs of Britain's ageing population'. Metz and
    Underwood. March 2005
  • Transport and Mobility
  • 'Evaluating Measures to Enhance the Mobility of
    Older and Disabled Persons'
  • Review of age discrimination in transport
  • Review of transport policies  for an ageing
    population

27
UK Foresight Ageing Population Whats
happened since 2001?
  • Conclusion?
  • Difficult to tell no published measures or
    reporting back
  • Successes
  • Some public sector individual initiatives
  • What might have helped?
  • Ageing population audit team or champions?
  • Stakeholder concept at start?
  • Formal follow-up?

28
UK Foresight Ageing Population
  • What should happen next?

29
4. What should happen next?
  • Within UK maybe .
  • 5 year review of impact?
  • Audit of ageing strategies?
  • Specific research and development project
    addressing an ageing issue?
  • Requires analysis of developments including
    international, and forecasts
  • Visions what success will look like
  • Recommendations to make the most of technology
  • Networks of people keen to take work forward

30
4. What should happen next?
  • Internationally maybe .
  • Review of UK Foresight findings and lessons?
  • International comparisons/benchmarking?
  • International research and development project
    addressing an ageing issue?
  • But within the new UK framework?
  • Industry is international tackle opportunities
    arising from Ageing Population ?

31
Conclusion
  • UK Ageing Population Foresight finished -
  • at least in old form
  • UK initiatives will need to fit in with new
    framework
  • International initiatives
  • Review UK lessons?
  • Comparisons or benchmarking?
  • A project in a specific field?

32
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