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Ministry for Foreign Affairs

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Rapidly ageing society, low birthrate (1,29) and decreasing population ... in 2006 a table top exercise for fighting avian influenza, in 2008 in maritime security ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Ministry for Foreign Affairs


1
Security environment in Asia from Japans
perspective
Ambassador Jorma Julinat Renvall
Institute, University of Helsinki on September
8, 2008
2
Security developments in Asia relevant for Japan
  • Chinas emergence not only as major economic and
    political power but its rapid and already
    long-lasted military build-up
  • India coming
  • Russia weakened but economy and self-confidence
    again boosted up by huge energy revenues
  • Korean issue unresolved despite much efforts
  • US still a key player
  • Japan still restrained by its Constitution from
    1945 but military alliance with US, defence
    capacity very significant
  • multilateral security processes, not yet
    arrangements
  • multipolar Asia is emerging

3
Japan today
  • exceptionally long economic downturn affected
    Japan in a very harsh manner but
  • Japan is back modest economic growth for some
    six years since 2002
  • advanced and mature economy
  • globally still no 2 in terms of size of economy
    after US and prior to China
  • traditionally strong manufacturing country

4
Japan today
  • a lot of low and medium-skilled jobs have
    migrated to China and other low cost countries.
  • Japan is focusing even more on high valued added
    and technology intensive products and services.
  • medium-term potential some two percent growth
  • major long-term challenge how to sustain growth
    as population is declining

5
Japan today
  • US still no. 1 export market for Japan though
    diversification taking place.
  • China (incl. HK) already the biggest overall
    trading partner for Japan
  • China is the biggest recipient of Japans FDI
  • almost half of Japans trade takes place with
    East and SE Asia
  • revenue from investments abroad bigger than trade
    balance surplus

6
Technology giant
  • Japan invests 3,4 of her GDP to research and
    development (RD)
  • as creator of technical, technological knowledge
    Japan is clearly no. 2 in the world US 40,
    Japan 16, others have only one digit figures
  • on global top for instance in robotics,
    nanotechnology, developing ubiquitous network
    society, life sciences such as biomedicine and
    regenerative medicine, miniature manufacturing...

7
Japans challenges
  • Rapidly ageing society, low birthrate (1,29) and
    decreasing population
  • need for fiscal consolidation
  • public debt of 180 of GDP has to be scaled down
    through a medium-term programme cutting public
    expenditure and increasing public sector
    productivity, broadening tax base
  • globalisation particularly addressing and
    adapting to pressures stemming from emergence of
    China and India as major economic powers and
    competitors
  • securing sufficient energy imports as country
    highly dependent on imports
  • normalisation and getting rid of legacy from
    WWII restrained by the Constitution from 1945

8
Japan still seeking proper role and of becoming
a normal state
  • legacy of WWII and military restrictions in the
    pacifistic Constitution imposed on Japan still
    have much influence on her policies and room for
    manoeuvre
  • critisized for cheque book diplomacy
  • as an economic giant trying now to strengthen her
    foreign policy role as a regional and global
    player
  • defence alliance with the US as important as ever
    especially because of Chinas vigorous military
    build-up however

9
Legacy from WWII
  • especially China and South Korea feel that Japan
    has not treated the war and her deeds then in the
    same way as Germany did
  • visits to Yasukuni shrine, sincerity of
    apologies, denials of comfort women, history
    formulations in school books irritate neighbours
  • restraints in the pasifistic constitution from
    1945 only self-defence forces, though 2nd
    biggest military expenditure in the world
    Furthermore, Japan has interpreted narrowly how
    collective self-defence can be pursued
  • now gradually taking more largely part in PKO and
    creating peace-building capacity also Defence
    Agency transformed to full Ministry of Defence
    recently

10
Japan aims at strengthening her role and
influence regionally and globally
  • in peace-keeping and -building operations
  • lobbying for permanent seat at UN Security
    Council (in the context of UN reform)
  • multiple initiatives
  • for Asian integration
  • Arc of Freedom and Prosperity
  • opening cooperation with NATO

11
Security alliance with the US
  • Japan knows that the alliance does not help to
    build confidence with her Asian partners
  • though there is a clear underlying wish to take
    more distance from US no political party nor any
    serious politician sees that really possible
    despite rhetorics
  • security alliance further strengthened in 2006
  • realignment of troops
  • introduction of ballistic missiles
  • reinforced cooperation, conformity of equipment,
    etc
  • Japan protected by US nuclear arms

12
Japans energy needs
  • best energy efficiency among OECD countries
  • very high dependence on imports (some 95)
  • great concern as to sufficiency of future energy
    supplies
  • recently activated resource diplomacy in Central
    Asia, Russia, Africa,..to diversify her imports
    from Middle-East
  • nuclear energy part of policy but...
  • China and India also highly dependent on energy
    imports. Only Russia has abundant energy.

13
Japan as a regional power
  • ASEAN countries were for Japan first important
    trading partners and locations for investment and
    establishment in Asia. ODA and technology
    transfer have played an important role.
  • South Korea and China have come later. India even
    later.
  • Taiwan has been important economic partner for
    long.
  • Asian economic integration business-driven until
    relatively recently
  • currently important developments underway in
    terms of economic integration - free trade
    agreements - and several initiatives to promote
    political cooperation

14
East Asian Summits
  • Japanese initiative
  • ASEAN1033
  • Summits dialogue and political declarations, no
    real influence yet
  • gradual confidence building
  • long term objective East Asian Community

15
ASEAN Regional Forum
  • no real influence, only symbolic meaning
  • original idea
  • CBMs
  • preventive diplomacy
  • conflict resolution
  • has remained talk shopof already 27 members
  • heterogeneous grouping, tradition of
    non-interference
  • in 2006 a table top exercise for fighting avian
    influenza, in 2008 in maritime security

16
FTA/EPA network growing
  • most important development in Asian integration
    and cooperation
  • key players ASEAN, Japan, China, ROK, India
  • in addition to lowering/abolishing tariffs
    agreements going beyond existing WTO regime (on
    investments, services, migration, competition
    rules, intellectual property protection,..)
  • FTA/EPAs becoming generator for closer economic
    integration and growth, also for interdependence

17
Japan and China
  • China is the biggest challenge for Japan as
    economic partner and competitor as well as in
    military terms
  • twofold approach for coping with China
    engagement and containment
  • engagement involving China in economic
    integration and political cooperation
  • containment strengthening of defence security
    ties with the US and others (Australia, NZ,
    India)
  • natural rivalry of leadership - also territorial
    dispute on some small islands - but already very
    important mutual interdependence which is
    fostering political stability

18
Japan and Russia a lot of untapped potential
  • natural economic partners much complementarity
  • energy needs and increasing business
    opportunities in Russia driving Japan to try to
    find a solution to the territorial dispute
    (Northern territories or Kuril islands), but a
    quick deal unlikely
  • however, Japan-Russia economic cooperation -
    trade and investment - are growing rapidly as
    Russias economy is thriving and Japan is
    pursuing a very active resource diplomacy
  • Russia playing especially China and Japan against
    each other and making them compete

19
Korean issue
  • unsolved Korean issue a major problem for Japan
    because of North Koreas nuclear tests and
    missile launches. No denuclearisation yet.
  • South Korea a major economic partner for Japan
  • North Korea tries to isolate Japan in the 6-Party
    Talks (six Koreas, US, China, Russia, Japan) as
    Japan also keen on finding a satisfacory solution
    to the abductions of its citizens
  • Korean peninsula denuclearisation and
    normalisation of relations with North Korea is
    naturally also in Japans interest.
  • Has Korean reunification in short or medium term
    any supporters in the negotiations?

20
North-East Asian PeaceSecurity Mechanism
emerging?
  • 6-party talks are the most concrete and
    important multilateral security process underway
    in Asia
  • if the talks evolve to formal negotiations they
    could produce many significant results and a
    multilateral security arrangement
  • on the provisional agenda are probably at least
  • denuclearisation of North Korea
  • removal of sanctions on North Korea
  • establishment of diplomatic relations (US and
    Japan with NK)
  • economic aid package(s)
  • normalising economic and other cooperation
  • security guarantees and CBMs
  • peace treaty (now only truce on Korean peninsula)

21
Japans new foreign policy doctrine
  • Prime Minister Fukuda launched in April a new
    foreign policy doctrine whose basic principles
    are
  • strengthening cooperation with Asian countries
  • emphasizing ASEANs key role and
  • seeing the US-Japan defence alliance as a useful
    instrument in maintaining stability in
    Asia-Pacific region
  • typically Japanese bowing both to US and China
  • different from Koizumis policy which was more
    US-oriented

22
The way forward for Japan
  • multifaceted dialogue and growing cooperation
    with China and South Korea and also with Russia
    to continue despite unsolved issues and differing
    views.
  • At the same time Japan is working towards
    assuming a role of a normal state
  • already gradual military normalisation underway
    Defence Ministry set up in short term collective
    self-defence will be possible after
    reinterpretation of Constitution, later its
    revision
  • militarisation of Japan highly unlikely and very
    unpopular among citizens.
  • However, pressures mount for defence build-up
    because of developments around Japan. Nuclear
    option? not publicly much discusssed.

23
The way forward for Japan
  • growing economic interdependence and increasing
    cooperation and exchanges will likely positively
    influence political relations between Japan and
    her neighbors
  • Japan will remain long an economic and technology
    giant, and assuming role of normal state
    progresses only slowly
  • Japans soft power policy getting active

24
Can Japan deliver?
  • in terms of size Japans relative economic
    importance will be decreasing gradually but,
  • Japan will remain a very strong and influential
    regional player especially in trade and
    investments
  • Japans role is also welcome by the ASEAN
    countries as a balancing factor in the region
  • Japan will prefer pluri/multilateral approaches
    to promote her political and economic objectives
    especially in Asia
  • there is a risk that progress in attaining
    domestic and foreign policy objectives will be
    hampered by weak leadership of governments

25
THANK YOU!
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