Ministry for Foreign Affairs - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


PPT – Ministry for Foreign Affairs PowerPoint presentation | free to view - id: b3578-NzM4Z


The Adobe Flash plugin is needed to view this content

Get the plugin now

View by Category
About This Presentation

Ministry for Foreign Affairs


Rapidly ageing society, low birthrate (1,29) and decreasing population ... in 2006 a table top exercise for fighting avian influenza, in 2008 in maritime security ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

Number of Views:65
Avg rating:3.0/5.0
Slides: 26
Provided by: For5150


Write a Comment
User Comments (0)
Transcript and Presenter's Notes

Title: Ministry for Foreign Affairs

Security environment in Asia from Japans
Ambassador Jorma Julinat Renvall
Institute, University of Helsinki on September
8, 2008
Security developments in Asia relevant for Japan
  • Chinas emergence not only as major economic and
    political power but its rapid and already
    long-lasted military build-up
  • India coming
  • Russia weakened but economy and self-confidence
    again boosted up by huge energy revenues
  • Korean issue unresolved despite much efforts
  • US still a key player
  • Japan still restrained by its Constitution from
    1945 but military alliance with US, defence
    capacity very significant
  • multilateral security processes, not yet
  • multipolar Asia is emerging

Japan today
  • exceptionally long economic downturn affected
    Japan in a very harsh manner but
  • Japan is back modest economic growth for some
    six years since 2002
  • advanced and mature economy
  • globally still no 2 in terms of size of economy
    after US and prior to China
  • traditionally strong manufacturing country

Japan today
  • a lot of low and medium-skilled jobs have
    migrated to China and other low cost countries.
  • Japan is focusing even more on high valued added
    and technology intensive products and services.
  • medium-term potential some two percent growth
  • major long-term challenge how to sustain growth
    as population is declining

Japan today
  • US still no. 1 export market for Japan though
    diversification taking place.
  • China (incl. HK) already the biggest overall
    trading partner for Japan
  • China is the biggest recipient of Japans FDI
  • almost half of Japans trade takes place with
    East and SE Asia
  • revenue from investments abroad bigger than trade
    balance surplus

Technology giant
  • Japan invests 3,4 of her GDP to research and
    development (RD)
  • as creator of technical, technological knowledge
    Japan is clearly no. 2 in the world US 40,
    Japan 16, others have only one digit figures
  • on global top for instance in robotics,
    nanotechnology, developing ubiquitous network
    society, life sciences such as biomedicine and
    regenerative medicine, miniature manufacturing...

Japans challenges
  • Rapidly ageing society, low birthrate (1,29) and
    decreasing population
  • need for fiscal consolidation
  • public debt of 180 of GDP has to be scaled down
    through a medium-term programme cutting public
    expenditure and increasing public sector
    productivity, broadening tax base
  • globalisation particularly addressing and
    adapting to pressures stemming from emergence of
    China and India as major economic powers and
  • securing sufficient energy imports as country
    highly dependent on imports
  • normalisation and getting rid of legacy from
    WWII restrained by the Constitution from 1945

Japan still seeking proper role and of becoming
a normal state
  • legacy of WWII and military restrictions in the
    pacifistic Constitution imposed on Japan still
    have much influence on her policies and room for
  • critisized for cheque book diplomacy
  • as an economic giant trying now to strengthen her
    foreign policy role as a regional and global
  • defence alliance with the US as important as ever
    especially because of Chinas vigorous military
    build-up however

Legacy from WWII
  • especially China and South Korea feel that Japan
    has not treated the war and her deeds then in the
    same way as Germany did
  • visits to Yasukuni shrine, sincerity of
    apologies, denials of comfort women, history
    formulations in school books irritate neighbours
  • restraints in the pasifistic constitution from
    1945 only self-defence forces, though 2nd
    biggest military expenditure in the world
    Furthermore, Japan has interpreted narrowly how
    collective self-defence can be pursued
  • now gradually taking more largely part in PKO and
    creating peace-building capacity also Defence
    Agency transformed to full Ministry of Defence

Japan aims at strengthening her role and
influence regionally and globally
  • in peace-keeping and -building operations
  • lobbying for permanent seat at UN Security
    Council (in the context of UN reform)
  • multiple initiatives
  • for Asian integration
  • Arc of Freedom and Prosperity
  • opening cooperation with NATO

Security alliance with the US
  • Japan knows that the alliance does not help to
    build confidence with her Asian partners
  • though there is a clear underlying wish to take
    more distance from US no political party nor any
    serious politician sees that really possible
    despite rhetorics
  • security alliance further strengthened in 2006
  • realignment of troops
  • introduction of ballistic missiles
  • reinforced cooperation, conformity of equipment,
  • Japan protected by US nuclear arms

Japans energy needs
  • best energy efficiency among OECD countries
  • very high dependence on imports (some 95)
  • great concern as to sufficiency of future energy
  • recently activated resource diplomacy in Central
    Asia, Russia, Africa, diversify her imports
    from Middle-East
  • nuclear energy part of policy but...
  • China and India also highly dependent on energy
    imports. Only Russia has abundant energy.

Japan as a regional power
  • ASEAN countries were for Japan first important
    trading partners and locations for investment and
    establishment in Asia. ODA and technology
    transfer have played an important role.
  • South Korea and China have come later. India even
  • Taiwan has been important economic partner for
  • Asian economic integration business-driven until
    relatively recently
  • currently important developments underway in
    terms of economic integration - free trade
    agreements - and several initiatives to promote
    political cooperation

East Asian Summits
  • Japanese initiative
  • ASEAN1033
  • Summits dialogue and political declarations, no
    real influence yet
  • gradual confidence building
  • long term objective East Asian Community

ASEAN Regional Forum
  • no real influence, only symbolic meaning
  • original idea
  • CBMs
  • preventive diplomacy
  • conflict resolution
  • has remained talk shopof already 27 members
  • heterogeneous grouping, tradition of
  • in 2006 a table top exercise for fighting avian
    influenza, in 2008 in maritime security

FTA/EPA network growing
  • most important development in Asian integration
    and cooperation
  • key players ASEAN, Japan, China, ROK, India
  • in addition to lowering/abolishing tariffs
    agreements going beyond existing WTO regime (on
    investments, services, migration, competition
    rules, intellectual property protection,..)
  • FTA/EPAs becoming generator for closer economic
    integration and growth, also for interdependence

Japan and China
  • China is the biggest challenge for Japan as
    economic partner and competitor as well as in
    military terms
  • twofold approach for coping with China
    engagement and containment
  • engagement involving China in economic
    integration and political cooperation
  • containment strengthening of defence security
    ties with the US and others (Australia, NZ,
  • natural rivalry of leadership - also territorial
    dispute on some small islands - but already very
    important mutual interdependence which is
    fostering political stability

Japan and Russia a lot of untapped potential
  • natural economic partners much complementarity
  • energy needs and increasing business
    opportunities in Russia driving Japan to try to
    find a solution to the territorial dispute
    (Northern territories or Kuril islands), but a
    quick deal unlikely
  • however, Japan-Russia economic cooperation -
    trade and investment - are growing rapidly as
    Russias economy is thriving and Japan is
    pursuing a very active resource diplomacy
  • Russia playing especially China and Japan against
    each other and making them compete

Korean issue
  • unsolved Korean issue a major problem for Japan
    because of North Koreas nuclear tests and
    missile launches. No denuclearisation yet.
  • South Korea a major economic partner for Japan
  • North Korea tries to isolate Japan in the 6-Party
    Talks (six Koreas, US, China, Russia, Japan) as
    Japan also keen on finding a satisfacory solution
    to the abductions of its citizens
  • Korean peninsula denuclearisation and
    normalisation of relations with North Korea is
    naturally also in Japans interest.
  • Has Korean reunification in short or medium term
    any supporters in the negotiations?

North-East Asian PeaceSecurity Mechanism
  • 6-party talks are the most concrete and
    important multilateral security process underway
    in Asia
  • if the talks evolve to formal negotiations they
    could produce many significant results and a
    multilateral security arrangement
  • on the provisional agenda are probably at least
  • denuclearisation of North Korea
  • removal of sanctions on North Korea
  • establishment of diplomatic relations (US and
    Japan with NK)
  • economic aid package(s)
  • normalising economic and other cooperation
  • security guarantees and CBMs
  • peace treaty (now only truce on Korean peninsula)

Japans new foreign policy doctrine
  • Prime Minister Fukuda launched in April a new
    foreign policy doctrine whose basic principles
  • strengthening cooperation with Asian countries
  • emphasizing ASEANs key role and
  • seeing the US-Japan defence alliance as a useful
    instrument in maintaining stability in
    Asia-Pacific region
  • typically Japanese bowing both to US and China
  • different from Koizumis policy which was more

The way forward for Japan
  • multifaceted dialogue and growing cooperation
    with China and South Korea and also with Russia
    to continue despite unsolved issues and differing
  • At the same time Japan is working towards
    assuming a role of a normal state
  • already gradual military normalisation underway
    Defence Ministry set up in short term collective
    self-defence will be possible after
    reinterpretation of Constitution, later its
  • militarisation of Japan highly unlikely and very
    unpopular among citizens.
  • However, pressures mount for defence build-up
    because of developments around Japan. Nuclear
    option? not publicly much discusssed.

The way forward for Japan
  • growing economic interdependence and increasing
    cooperation and exchanges will likely positively
    influence political relations between Japan and
    her neighbors
  • Japan will remain long an economic and technology
    giant, and assuming role of normal state
    progresses only slowly
  • Japans soft power policy getting active

Can Japan deliver?
  • in terms of size Japans relative economic
    importance will be decreasing gradually but,
  • Japan will remain a very strong and influential
    regional player especially in trade and
  • Japans role is also welcome by the ASEAN
    countries as a balancing factor in the region
  • Japan will prefer pluri/multilateral approaches
    to promote her political and economic objectives
    especially in Asia
  • there is a risk that progress in attaining
    domestic and foreign policy objectives will be
    hampered by weak leadership of governments