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Universität Konstanz FB Politik und
Verwaltung Course Difficult Enlargement the New
Member States in the European Union Prof. Martin
Potucek Date 04.08.2006
Do the benefits of the EU-enlargement justify the
losses? By Johannes Hainzinger, Andreas
Schmidt, Christian Stegmaier
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Content
1.Introduction 2.Public Support for
Enlargement in 2004 3.Implications for Policy
fields 3.1 Justice and Home Affairs 3.2 Common
Foreign and Security Policy 3.3 Economy 4. Final
Discussion/ Conclusion?
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3.Implications for Policy fields
3.1 Justice and home affairs
The field justice ist one of the pillars, which
was created as the justice and home
affairs pillar in the Treaty of Mastrich
subsequently the Treaty of Amsterdam transferred
the areas of illegal immigration, visas,asylum
and judicial co-operation to the integrated first
pillar.
These are the common interests of the
EU-States 1. Asylum 2. Rules concerning the
entrance of external borders 3. Immigration
policies and policies concerning third countries'
citizens Conditions of entry and circulation
foreign citizens in the territory of the Union
Conditions of residence for foreign citizens
in the territory of Member States,
comprising families and employment access
Fight against irregular immigration, residence
and work of foreigners within the territory of
the Union 4. Combating illicit drugs where this
is not covered by point 7), 8) and 9) 5. Fight
against international fraud where this is not
covered by points 7), 8) and 9) 6. Judicial
co-operation in civil matters 7. Judicial
co-operation in penal matters 8. Customs
co-operation 9. Police co-operation for
preventing and fighting terrorism, drugs
trade and other grave forms of international
criminality, comprising, if necessary,
certain aspects of customs co-operation.
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Justice and home affairs
"Der ungehinderte Strom der Drogenhändler,
Zuhälter, Prostituierten und Geldwäscher wird
fröhlich in diesem Kontinent fließen, der immer
offener für die allerschwärzesten Märkte ist. Wer
wäre nicht zutiefst über diese Europäische Union
erfreut, wenn er wirklich überzeugt davon wäre,
dass die Politiker uns führten und nicht die
Bankiers "(France-Soir, Paris, zur
EU-Osterweiterung)
Dark blue Members in of the Schengen
Treaty light blue future members grey no
membership
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3.1 Justice and Home Affairs
Some figures - illegal migration decreased by
25 - Car theft goes down since 1995 (still
high) - drugs no increases with hard drugs since
1995 - light drugs still increasing - all in
all increasing drug-criminality (most
dangerous place Netherlands)
A model for succesfull cooperation the czech
and german police on the border (Deutsche
Polizei on http//www.br-online.de/bayern-heute/th
ema/osterweiterung/sicherheit.xml )
The EU-Enlargement has no influence to the
criminal-statistics. Gangs always tried to
commit crimes even with boundaries. (Gunter
Beckstein Minister for Home Affairs of Bavaria
on http//www.br-online.de/bayern1/thema/polizeir
eport/statistik-2004.shtml)
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3.2 Common Foreign and Security Policy
Will the EU after enlargement be able to speak
with one voice, or will decision making become
even more complicated?
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3.2 Common Foreign and Security Policy

• Characteristics of new Member states
• A. Geographical
• - East of EU 15
• New neighbouring countries Ukraine, Belarus,
  Russia (Kaliningrad), FRY
• B. Historical
• - post communist countries
• - Slavic culture
• Large ethnic minorities
• C. Political
• - Newly independent lack of Foreign Policy
  experience
• - Members of NATO
• - Modest defence Budgets Poland 4 Bn USD
  Slovenia 0,6 Bn USD

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3.2 Common Foreign and Security Policy

• Implications of Enlargement
• A. EU decision making process
• - It is more complicated to reach consensus with
  25 instead of 15 members
• - NMS are inexperienced with EU- working
  procedures
• - NMS are less constructive
• -gt Negative impact
• B. Lack of resources
• slows down the process of developing instruments
  and capabilities
• C. NATO membership
• - NATO first is NMS security strategy -gt no
  need of European one
• - Pro American? (USA is still counterweight to
  Russia in Europe -gt Iraq rift)

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3.2 Common Foreign and Security Policy

• D. Shift of Foreign Policy focus
• I. Higher priority of new neighbouring countries
  to the (South) East
• -gt Ethnic minorities, cross border trade,
  organised crime
• II. Changing relationship with Russia
• - Kaliningrad
• - Fear of Russian domination, personal experience
  with Human Rights violations
• Less pragmatic approach of NMS vis-à-vis Russia
  than established EU view
• III. Changing Relationship to the Western Balkans
• Hungary, Slovenia
• E. Intelligence capabilities
• NMS bring privileged positions into EU on
  neighbouring areas
• F. Valuable experience of NMS in Security Sector
  Reform

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Basic Economic Indicators
3.3 Economy

• EU-25
• Population 457 million
• Unemployment Rate 9.4
• GDP growth rate 1.7
• GDP by Sector
• Agriculture 2.2
• Industry 27.2
• Services 70.5
• Inflation 2.2

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EU-15 vs. EU-10
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EU-15 vs. EU-10
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Restrictions During the Interim Period

• Only the UK, Ireland and Sweden did not impose
  any restrictions to the access to their markets
  from the very beginning.
• Finland, Portugal and Spain (Belgien, France)
  have now decided to open their labour markets
• Other countries (e.g. Germany) have not yet
  opened their labour markets completely. (232
  regulation)

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Structural Funds

• With the Enlargement of the EU, the allocation
  of its financial means had to be reorganized. Due
  to this fact, many economically weak regions
  (e.g. the East of Germany, regions in Spain and
  Portugal), which until now had been financially
  supported, hardly receive any financial aid now.

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DISCUSSION!
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Actual Facts about the Enlargement

• Have markets got flooded with workers from the
  CEE-Countries?
• No, this did not happen. Neither in countries
  still having
• Labour market restrictions nor in those being
  entirely opened. Even in the UK and Ireland
  CEE-workers have not exceeded the level of one
  percent of the active working population yet.
  These immigrants merely helped to ease labour
  shortages in sectors such as agriculture and
  construction.

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Outsourcing/Relocating the
Business?

• Relocation of companies from the EU-15 to EU-10
  is minimal a larger threat is Asia
• Investing in CEE instead of India/China can help
  European industry to create jobs and growth
  throughout Europe

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Distortion of the Internal Market?

• It results from badly transposed or implemented
  common rules by both new and old member states
• The Commisions internal market scorecard proves
  that the new states are performing better

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Distortion of the Internal Market?
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Social Dumping??

• The enlargement has helped to reduce grey economy
  (black labour market).-gt legal workers are less
  prone to exploitation and poor labour standards,
  pay taxes and social security contributions
• The registered workers from the EU-10 had no
  relevant impact on increase of the social
  security spendings in the old member states (e.g.
  only 1 out of each 100 registered workers in UK
  has made any claims for social security benefits)

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Isnt the enlargement too expensive?

• The actual new members share of the Unions
  budget represents only 0,15 of the EUs GDP. The
  money is spent mainly on better infrastructure,
  which benefits across the whole EU.
• Since the new member economies are growing nearly
  twice as fast as the older ones (3,6 vs 2,
  2000-2004), the outlays spent to devolop them
  create the new business opportunities for the
  whole EU.

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Advanatages in the nutshell

• Better access to the Central and Eastern European
  Markets (lower Barriers of Entry)
• Higher Stability and Security of the new
  Economies-gt less threats for the new Investors
• Huge markets with high absorption and
  considirably growing GDP
• Neutralisation of labour shortages in sectors of
  economy
• A Level Playing Field for the Companies

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• Conclusion?
• Do the benefits of EU Enlargement justify the
  losses?

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Sources

• http//ec.europa.eu/enlargement/questions_and_answ
  ers/myths_en.htm
• http//europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?refe
  renceIP/06/557formatHTMLaged0languageENgui
  Languageen
• http//ec.europa.eu/eurostat/
• https//www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/
• http//europa.eu.int/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?
  referenceIP/06/192formatHTMLaged1languageEN
  guiLanguageen

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Sources

• Hix, Simon (2005). The Political System of the
  European Union. 2. ed. Basingsstoke Palgrave
  Macmillian
• Richardson, Jeremy J. (2006). Policy- Making in
  the EU. Interests, Idea and Garbage Cans of
  Primeval Soup. In Jeremy J. Richardson (ed).
  European Union Power and Policay- making (3rd
  ed.). Abingdon Routledge, pp. 3-30

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• Sources
• - Landeszentrale Zeitschrift Der Bürger im Staat
  1/2004
• - Bericht über die Vorbereitung Bayerns auf die
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• - http//www.iwkoeln.de/Publikationen/frs_publikat
  ionen.htm.
• - stabilität durch Integration? Südosteuropa
  als Herausforderung für die Europäische Union /
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  Image file . - (Reihe Eurokolleg 43). - ISBN
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  Library, 2000
• - EU-Osterweiterung eine komparative Bewertung
  der Fortschrittsberichte von zehn Kandidaten /
  Franz-Lothar Altmann. - Electronic ed.. -
  Bonn, 2001. - 9 S. 37b KB, Text . -
  (Politikinformation Osteuropa 87) Electronic
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• - EU Eastern enlargement and development
  cooperation / Michael Dauderstädt (ed.).
  Friedrich-Ebert-Stfitung, International Policy
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  160 KB, Text Image file - ISBN 3-89892-125-5
  Dt. Ausg. u.d.T. EU-Osterweiterung und
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• - Die erweiterte EU braucht eine wirksame
  Nachbarschaftspolitik / AG Europäische
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• - http//www.zoll.de/
• - http//www.polizei.bayern.de/
• - http//www.thueringen.de/de/polizei/content.html
  
• -http//www.bundespolizei.de/cln_029/DE/Home/home_
  _node.html__nnntrue
• - http//www.stmi.bayern.de/sicherheit/innere/sich
  erheitskonzept/