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Aristotle University of Thessaloniki Lectures on freight : contemporary economics and policy issues

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White Paper of European Commission, 2001 (a medium range ... enlargement of Union will create massive flows in new member-States. congestion of trunk lines ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Aristotle University of Thessaloniki Lectures on freight : contemporary economics and policy issues


1
Aristotle University of ThessalonikiLectures on
freight contemporary economics and policy
issues European Transport Policy decoupling
economic growth and transport growth
  • Michel Savy
  • savy_at_enpc.fr
  • professor, ENPC and University of Paris 12
  • director, OPSTE ( www.cnt.fr )

2
1. A new political concern
  • White Paper of European Commission, 2001 (a
    medium range political agenda)
  • economic growth will mechanically generate an
    additional need of mobility (38 for freight and
    24 for passengers within 10 years)
  • enlargement of Union will create massive flows in
    new member-States
  • congestion of trunk lines
  • accessibility of remote regions and upgrading of
    infrastructure will require huge investment

3
Decoupling as a strategic target
  • the necessary introduction of transport into
    sustainable development requires to slow down
    transport demand ()
  • in this context, progressive decoupling of
    economic growth and transport growth is a
    strategic target, on which the White Paper
    relies
  • the term "decoupling" disappears from the 2006
    revision of the White paper
  • Aim of this presentation Is this target
    realistic ? How to implement it ?

4
2. A scientific approach
  • a controversial issue
  • shippers associations opposed to the very notion
  • unrealistic or even impossible (transport is
    fatal)
  • costly, bad for European competitiveness
  • green parties support the idea
  • a comparison decoupling of energy consumption
    and economic growth in the 70 and 80 (first oil
    shock)
  • a need for independent approach

5
European comparison GNP and freight
6
European comparisons development and freight
7
A retrospective enquiry
  • A long range analysis (1962 - 2000)
  • The French case, then some European comparisons
  • 4 macroeconomic data series taken into account
  • GNP (in volume)
  • industrial production index
  • domestic freight transport (t lifted)
  • domestic freight transport (t.km hauled)

8
A questionable (or unstable) correlation
Transport augments due to distances, not to
lifted tonnage !
9
A close correlation transport (t.km) / industrial
production
Transport volume amplifies industrial production
short-range fluctuations
10
Three different periods
  • 1962 - 1975 fordist growth
  • stable homogeneous growth of industry,
    production, transport
  • 1975 - 1985 restructuring
  • heavy industry crisis, service economy
  • specific French energy policy
  • actual decoupling !
  • 1985 - 2000 lean production growth
  • longer domestic distances, and single market
  • strong transport consumption again
  • is decoupling possible ?

11
European comparisons
5 big, comparable, neighbour European countries
France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK only t.km and
GNP are considered, 1970 - 1997
12
European comparisons (2)
  • 2 distinct periods
  • 1970 - 1985 divergent evolutions
  • growth for Italy and Spain, entrance into
    European market
  • average evolution in Germany and UK
  • restructuring industries in France
  • 1985 - 1997 parallel evolutions
  • coupling economic growth and transport
  • medium range elasticity about 1,4
  • more recently elasticity below 1, but still
    positive
  • Conclusion decoupling is not obvious !

13
International comparisons Japan
Domestic freight transport in Japan. 2000 index
100
14
International comparisons United States
Transition towards a high tech industry
15
Road freight intensity US, Europe, Japan
16
3. What is the target ?
  • The White Paper is ambiguous
  • is the aim to diminish the quantity of goods to
    be transported ?
  • or to diminish transport nuisance ?
  • Diminish
  • volume of flows (t) ?
  • transport (t.km) ?
  • traffic (v.km) ?
  • Or just road traffic ? traditional modal shift
    issue...

17
4. Proposals
  • the issue is not only goods transport
  • upstream of transport, distances
  • spatial division of activities
  • trade-off polarisation vs. haulage
  • a new field for public policy location
    contracts
  • comparison of several logistics organisations,
    from a private and a public point of view
  • public support for less costly solutions
    (including external costs)

18
Proposals (2)
  • downstream of transport, traffic
  • size of vehicles
  • loading factor
  • empty running factor
  • why not super-lorries ?
  • 60 t maximum weight
  • with clean and safe technologies
  • only on highways and slip roads, linked to
    freight villages
  • and environment friendly distribution technology
    in urban areas
  • also, a dedicated railway network for freight
  • more short sea shipping, inland waterway, and
    intermodal solutions

19
Original contribution from big consumer goods
producers
  • Transport costs and prices cannot go on declining
    for ever
  • road pricing, eco taxes
  • congestion
  • drivers shortage
  • better make proposals than wait for new
    constraints (proactive)
  • experimental method, best practice exchange, and
    then proposals for policy makers

20
Practical solutions
  • modify goods density and packaging
  • include logistics efficiency into marketing and
    design of products
  • more homogeneous delivery units (pallets)
  • standard, versatile boxes and pallets (diminish
    empty return haulage)
  • modify vehicles (more efficient use of volume)
  • quicker availability of information, so as to
    anticipate on logistics management of transport,
    co-operation along supply chain
  • experiment alternative modes of transport

21
Practical solutions (2)
  • select closer suppliers and customers
  • more numerous and divided plants and warehouses
  • less just-in-time organisation (more inventory
    for more full load transport)
  • more full load less hub and spokes (shorter
    haulage)
  • more storage surface in shopping facilities
  • longer lead time for delivery
  • separate invoice for goods and for transport
  • tariff incentives for efficient transport

22
Conclusion
  • Still in discussion
  • Flexibility is limited in the short term, most
    results will occur at medium and long term only
  • Previous experience of energy saving
  • A wide range of means will be necessary (no
    single solution, such as pricing)
  • innovation and technology
  • information and training
  • regulation
  • incentives and penalties
  • A need for appraisal of different scenarios
  • A need for more international comparison and
    research
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