Global Warming Prediction

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Global WarmingPrediction

• L. David Roper
• Professor Emeritus of Physics
• Virginia Polytechnic Inst. St. Univ.
• roperld_at_vt.edu
• http//arts.bev.net/RoperLDavid
• http//www.roperld.com/science/GlobalWarmingPredic
  tion.htm

Global Warming and Peak Oil may be the greatest
challenges that humans have encountered in the
last 10,000 years.
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Global Warming Prediction

• It is very important to account for fossil-fuels
  depletion when calculating Global Warming
  predictions.
• Otherwise, it might be assumed that more carbon
  can be put into the atmosphere from burning
  fossil fuels than physically possible.
• Calculating fossil-fuels depletion is not exact,
  but can be estimated reasonably well.

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Fossil Fuels Global Warming

• Fit depletion curves to extraction data for coal,
  crude oil and natural gas using discoveries data
  and reserves estimates.
• Calculate the carbon emitted due to burning
  fossil fuels and the CO2 concentration in the
  atmosphere, accounting for residence time.
• Calculate the Earth temperature due to the CO2 in
  the atmosphere, including time lag.
• Consider triggering of other effects that raise
  temperature, including temperature feedbacks that
  increase CO2 concentration.

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Verhulst Function for resources depletion.
Q? amount already extracted amount left to be
extracted total amount to be extracted
n ? 1 allows asymmetry.
Verhulst Function An asymmetric peaked curve.
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Oil discoveries will not allow higher average
extraction.
Peak Oil
Skewed toward later times.
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You cant extract it if you have not discovered
it!
Areas under both curves are the same. That is,
the amount discovered equals the amount extracted.
discoveries
extraction
The areas under the two curves are the same
2x1012 barrels.
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Gas discoveries will not allow higher average
extraction.
Peak Gas
Skewed toward later times.
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You cant extract it if you have not discovered
it!
Areas under both curves are the same. That is,
the amount discovered equals the amount extracted.
discoveries
The areas under the two curves are the same
8x1015 cu. ft.
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Peaks between 2060 2100
Double known coal. Unlikely!
Known existent coal (EIA)
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Factors and Assumptions

• Coal 50 carbon, short ton 0.907 tonnes
• Crude oil 84 carbon, bbl 0.136 tonnes
• Natural gas 76 carbon, tcf 0.0189 tonnes
• CO2 concentration in ppmv 0.47 x gigatonnes
  carbon emitted (may increase with high
  concentration i.e., may be nonlinear see later)
• Climate sensitivity 3C for doubling CO2
• 25 of fossil fuels are used to make useful
  materials or are lost instead of being burned.
• Background year 1700 CO2 concentration 280 ppmv

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20 left after 250 years
10 left after 2000 years
6 left after 10,000 years
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Equation for CO2 left in nth year for emissions
in all previous years.
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Coal CO2 emissions and CO2 concentration
contribution.
Shift in ppmv is due to CO2 residence time.
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Crude-oil CO2 emissions and CO2 concentration
contribution.
Shift in ppmv is due to CO2 residence time.
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Natural-Gas CO2 emissions and CO2 concentration
contribution.
Shift in ppmv is due to CO2 residence time.
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Fossil-Fuels CO2 emissions and CO2 concentration
contribution.
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CO2 concentration due to Fossil-Fuels burning
Peaks at about 2110.
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CO2 concentration due to Fossil-Fuels burning
background
Below measured data, as it should be.
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Non-Fossil-Fuels CO2 Emissions

• Deforestation
• Soil depletion
• Cement production
• Domestic animals

• Assume that non-fossil-fuels CO2 concentration is
  proportional to concentration due to burning
  fossil fuels.

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Fit of CO2 Concentration Data to Fossil-Fuels
Emissions
NFF14 of FF
Pre-fossil-fuels industrialization
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CO2 concentration due to Fossil-Fuels burning
Non-fossil-fuels sourceslatter assumed
proportional to fossil-fuels concentration.
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CO2 concentration due to Fossil-Fuels burning
Non-fossil-fuels background
465 ppmv
It peaks at about 2100 instead of rising into the
next century as many assume.
Carbon-dioxide concentration due to burning
fossil fuels with non-fossil fuels
emissions, assuming that no Earth states are
triggered.
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• Climate Sensitivity (s)
• Earth average atmospheric temperature rise due to
  doubling the carbon-dioxide concentration in the
  atmosphere. Accounts for fast feedbacks, such as
  ice melting.
• The average is about 3 degrees Celsius.
• It must be applied each year using the
  carbon-dioxide concentration for that year.
• C0concentration for reference year (1700).

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Climate-Response Function

• There is a time lag for the atmospheric
  temperature after carbon emissions.

Due to energy absorbed and released later in
mostly the oceans, but also in ice.
Fit of two hyperbolic tangents to the data.
Data errors are large.
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Climate-Response Function
The climate-sensitivity function is multiplied by
a series of two hyperbolic tangents
Temperature lag is due to energy absorbed and
released later in mostly the oceans, but also in
ice.
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1.3 degrees C
Although the temperature is not extremely high,
it hangs around for a long time.
Close to the current measured value.
Does not account for fluctuations due to global
dimming.
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Why such a high projection?!
Disaster region!
Peak in this calculation.
Ice age to current interglacial is about 8
degrees C in Antarctica and about half that in
the temperate regions.
8C
Temperature CO2 are mutually reinforcing
(positive feedback).
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Assume carbon sequestration or a coal-burning
moratorium.
Probably optimistic!
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Assume carbon sequestration or a coal-burning
moratorium.
Coal
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CO2 is somewhat reduced by carbon
sequestration or a coal-burning moratorium.
430 ppmv reduced from 465
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Temperature is somewhat reduced by carbon
sequestration or a coal-burning moratorium.
1.1 degrees C reduced from 1.3
Will we have waited too late?!
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Double the coal extracted.
Coal
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CO2 concentration due to doubled coal extraction
490 ppmv
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Temperature is increased due to doubled coal
extraction.
1.65 degrees C Instead of 1.3
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Temperatures for some of the cases considered
Double Coal
Coal Moratorium or Carbon Sequestration
Assumes that there is no triggering of Earth
states.
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• !Some Nightmares!
• Suppose concentration/emissions factor changes
  with increasing concentration from 0.47 to 0.94
  (land and ocean become saturated with CO2).
• Suppose permafrosted tundra release of carbon
  during the next century (example of temperature
  feedback).
• Suppose climate sensitivity changes from 3 to 4
  over the next two centuries. (It is known that it
  changes to 6 over millennia because of slow
  feedbacks.)

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• Suppose concentration/emissions factor changes
  with concentration from 0.47 to 0.94 (doubled).

820 ppmv
Assumes hyperbolic-tangent change with 450 ppmv
break point and 50 ppmv width.
Disaster Region!
Due to land and oceans being saturated with
carbon dioxide.
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• Suppose emissions/concentration Factor changes
  with concentration from 0.47 to 0.94 (doubled).

2.7 degrees C
Dangerously high temperatures
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Assume permafrosted tundra release of carbon.
Total 400 gigatonnes
Example of temperature feedback there are other
temperature feedbacks.
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CO2 concentration due to permafrosted tundra
release of carbon
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Total CO2 concentration including permafrosted
tundra release of carbon
555 ppmv
Disaster Region!
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Temperature including permafrosted tundra release
of carbon.
1.8 degrees C
Disaster Region!
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Worst case CO2 concentration
1110 ppmv
!Calamitous!
Most likely fossil-fuels depletion, CO2 feedback
carbon release in Arctic
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Worst case temperature
Will cause terrible catastrophes for human life.
(See Six Degrees Our Future on a Hotter Planet
by Mark Lynas.)
4.5 degrees C for climate sensitivity change to 4
3.5 degrees C for climate sensitivity 3
Approximately the same temperature change between
the last glacial maximum and now!
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Temperatures for some of the cases considered
Double Coal
Coal Moratorium or Carbon Sequestration
!Could a coal moratorium keep those disastrous
Earth states from triggering?!
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• Fossil Fuels Burning Reduction

Reduces temperature below now, which might keep
from triggering carbon releases and other
temperature-raising feedbacks.
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Conclusions

• Peaking fossil fuels keeps CO2 concentration from
  going extremely high, unless it triggers other
  effects.
• Since temperature rise of about 0.8C from 18th
  century is already causing disastrous events, the
  continuing increase of another 1C or more will
  cause even more disasters and may other Earth
  changes that will cause a higher temperature.
• The peaking of fossil fuels may be as large
  immediate disaster as is global warming.

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World Population Projections
Population with renewable energy
Population without renewable energy

• Fit of population to available fossil-fuels
  energy 1950-2006.

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Next Major Ice Age with Global Warming Effect
Accounting for claim that Earth average
temperature changes are about half Antarctica
average temperature changes.
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• This lecture is on the Internet, along with other
  related lectures
• http//www.roperld.com/science/GlobalWarmingPredic
  tion.ppt
• http//www.roperld.com/science/energy.ppt (Future
  Energy)
• http//www.roperld.com/science/energyGWNMIA.ppt
  (Energy, Global Warming and the Next Major Ice
  Age)