... did you vote for Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Joh

1
The Change Election Investing in Americas Future
November 18, 2008
Campaign for Americas Future Democracy Corps
2
Methodology and Overview

• The results of the following survey are displayed
  throughout this presentation
• Joint Democracy Corps and Campaign for Americas
  Future national post-election survey of 2,000
  voters, with calls conducted on Election Day 2008
  and the Wednesday following (November 4-5).
• Democracy Corps congressional battleground
  survey of 1,600 likely voters, conducted in 50
  GOP-held battleground districts October 13-16,
  2008.
• Public Interest Projects, Inc. survey of 800
  likely voters nationwide conducted June 17-26,
  2008.
• Time series data is from last decade of
  Democracy Corps surveys
• Data for each slide from Democracy Corps/CAF
  post-election survey unless otherwise noted.

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and Campaign for
Americas Future have collaborated on
post-election polls since 1996, and with
Democracy Corps starting in 2000.
3
Competitive Republican Congressional Districts

• Republican Tier 1
• Alaska 01
• Arizona 01
• Colorado 04
• Florida 08
• Florida 24
• Illinois 11
• Louisiana 04
• Michigan 07
• Minnesota 03
• Nevada 03
• New Jersey 03
• New Jersey 07
• New Mexico 01
• New York 13
• New York 25
• North Carolina
• Ohio 15
• Pennsylvania 03

• Republican Tier 2
• Alabama 02
• Arizona 03
• California 04
• Connecticut 04
• Florida 13
• Florida 21
• Florida 25
• Idaho 01
• Illinois 10
• Kentucky 02
• Maryland 01
• Michigan 09
• Missouri 06
• New Mexico 02
• New York 26
• New York 29
• Ohio 01
• Ohio 16

• Republican Tier 3
• Indiana 03
• Missouri 09
• Minnesota 06
• Nebraska 02
• Nevada 02
• Ohio 07
• Pennsylvania 15
• Virginia 10
• West Virginia 02
• Wyoming 01

Note Denotes open seat in which the incumbent
was not seeking reelection.
4
Political Landscape
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
Page 4
5
Over three quarters want a new direction for the
country
Generally speaking, do you think things in the
country are going in the right direction, or do
you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off
on the wrong track?
DNC Convention
RNC Convention
2008
Financial Crisis
Iraq surge
2006
Katrina
2008 Election
2006 Election
Net Difference
-35
-28
-10
-26
-25
-19
-42
-23
-28
-33
-24
-24
-27
-43
-41
-47
-43
-35
-47
-44
-41
-45
-44
-52
-52
-58
-63
-62
-46
-68
-75
-65
-62
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
Page 5
Note From Democracy Corps surveys conducted
over the last several years.
6
Obama wins popular vote by 6.7 point margin
Thinking about the election for president, did
you vote for Democrat Barack Obama, Republican
John McCain, Libertarian Party candidate Bob
Barr, Independent candidate Ralph Nader, or
Constitution/Louisiana Taxpayers Party candidate
Ron Paul?
RNC Convention
2008
2008 Election
Super Tuesday
Financial Crisis
DNC Convention
Net Difference
-1
1
-3
1
2
4
6
-2
3
10
5
4
5
9
7
6.7
Note 2008 election results based on official AP
report as of 11/14/08. Time series data from
Democracy Corps surveys conducted over the last
year.
7
Obama dominates on social insurance, economy
McCain on security
Now I am going to ask you something different. I
am going to read a list of issues and I want you
to tell me whether, overall, you think Barack
Obama or John McCain would do a better job with
this issue.
Education
Domestic Issues
Healthcare
Medicare and Social Security
Financial Crisis in the Country
The Economy
Economic Issues
Taxes
Gas Prices and Energy Crisis
Government Spending
Situation in Iraq
Security Issues
National Security
Note Advantage shows difference between total
choosing Obama as better and total choosing
McCain
8
At end majority say, Obama wont raise my taxes
Now Im going to read you a list of words and
phrases which people use to describe political
figures. For each word or phrase, please tell me
whether it describes Barack Obama very well,
well, not too well or not well at all Will raise
my taxes.
First Presidential Debate
Third Presidential Debate
2008 Election
Financial Crisis
Second Presidential Debate
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
Page 8
Note Data from Democracy Corps surveys
conducted over the last eight months.
9
Obama dominates closing tax debate
Now I am going to ask you something different. I
am going to read a list of issues and I want you
to tell me whether, overall, you think Barack
Obama or John McCain would do a better job with
this issue Taxes.
First Presidential Debate
Second Presidential Debate
2008Election
Third Presidential Debate
Financial Crisis
Net Difference
0
-5
-2
2
3
12
2
6
8
9
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
Page 9
Note Data from Democracy Corps surveys
conducted over the last three months.
10
The Economy as Dominant Issue
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
Page 10
11
Economy and jobs most important issue deficit
seen as less critical
Which problem should President Obama give the
greatest attention to? Which other problem should
he give the greatest attention to?
Reducing unemployment and getting the economy
moving
62
Investing in alternative energy and getting us
off foreign oil
44
Changing the health care system
21
Reducing the federal deficit
19
Cleaning up special interest influence in
Washington
16
Investing more in education and training
14
Investing in rebuilding our roads,
transportation, and economic infrastructures
8
12
Deficit less important to voters than it was in
1992
Which of the following problems should President
Obama/President Clinton give the greatest
attention to?
Reducing unemployment and getting the economy
moving
Reducing the federal deficit
Changing the health care system
Investing more in education and training
Note 1992 data from Greenberg-Lake, the
Analysis Group conducted November 4-8, 1992. 18
percent of 2008 voters chose Investing in
alternative energy as their top issue, but this
was not asked in 1992.
13
Most serious economic problem Personal debt tops
list
I am going to read you a list of issues relating
to the economy. For each issue I want you to tell
me whether today you think it is a very serious
problem, a serious problem, not too serious a
problem, or not a problem at all in the current
economy?
Too much debt, little savings and high interest
payments that leave people squeezed
94
6
14
Most serious economic problems Lack of
investment among top tier
I am going to read you a list of issues relating
to the economy. For each issue I want you to tell
me whether today you think it is a very serious
problem, a serious problem, not too serious a
problem, or not a problem at all in the current
economy?
The risk of losing a job and not being able to
find one with similar benefits like health care
very quickly
84
16
The inability to get good jobs because jobs are
being outsourced, company operations moved
overseas, or because products are now made abroad
86
13
Insecurity, where people could find their
pensions not offering the income they thought
they would receive
85
15
Failure to make the investments we need in
education and research to maintain America's
leadership.
84
15
15
Most serious economic problems Next tier
I am going to read you a list of issues relating
to the economy. For each issue I want you to tell
me whether today you think it is a very serious
problem, a serious problem, not too serious a
problem, or not a problem at all in the current
economy?
The richest 1 percent are seeing big increases in
their income and wealth and most other people are
seeing no increase or little increase in their
income each year.
73
25
Inequality, where the richest 1 percent are
seeing big increases in their income and wealth
and most other people are seeing no increase or
little increase in their income each year.
72
27
Most people in the country receiving no increase
or little increase in income each year.
74
26
16
The Agenda
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
Page 16
17
Priorities Investing in alternative energy tops
list of proposals
Im going to read you a list of proposals the new
president will consider. For each proposal, tell
me if you think is should be the SINGLE highest
priority, one of the TOP FEW priorities, but not
the highest, NEAR THE TOP of the list, in the
MIDDLE of the list, or TOWARD THE BOTTOM of the
list of priorities for the new president.
End dependence on foreign oil by 2025 by
requiring one quarter of U.S. electric power to
come from alternative energy where new
investments will create new jobs
81
End the war in Iraq responsibly and redeploy our
troops from Iraq to Afghanistan
75
Regulate the banking system to make sure a
financial crisis like this one can never happen
again.
74
Make health insurance affordable and accessible
to all Americans
73
18
Priorities Infrastructure investment in middle
of the pack
Im going to read you a list of proposals the new
president will consider. For each proposal, tell
me if you think is should be the SINGLE highest
priority, one of the TOP FEW priorities, but not
the highest, NEAR THE TOP of the list, in the
MIDDLE of the list, or TOWARD THE BOTTOM of the
list of priorities for the new president.
Repeal the Bush tax cuts for those making over
250,000 and cut taxes for middle class families
and anyone making under 200,000
60
Make job-creating investments in America's aging
roads and transportation systems and stimulate
new economic activity
60
Repeal tax breaks that benefit companies that
move jobs overseas
59
Raise the minimum wage so full-time workers earn
a living wage that can cover basic needs for
their family
54
Enact a three-month moratorium on all
foreclosures so that people don't lose their homes
51
Make college affordable to all Americans with a
tax credit of 4,000 in exchange for community
service
48
Expand opportunities for employees to organize in
unions so full-time workers earn a living wage
that can cover basic needs for their family
42
19
Caution on Unaccountable Spending, Taxes
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
Page 19
20
Voters more worried McCain would continue
economic policies than Obama being a tax and
spender
Now I'm going to read you a pair of statements.
After I read the pair, please tell me whether the
FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes
closer to your own view, even if neither is
exactly right.
Statement 1 When I voted, I was more concerned
that Obama will raise taxes and increase
government spending.
Statement 2 When I voted, I was more concerned
that McCain will continue the economic policies
that have cost us jobs and caused higher prices.
-4
50
46
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
Page 20
21
Independents more worried Obama would tax and
spend
Now I'm going to read you a pair of statements.
After I read the pair, please tell me whether the
FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes
closer to your own view, even if neither is
exactly right.
Statement 1 When I voted, I was more concerned
that Obama will raise taxes and increase
government spending.
Statement 2 When I voted, I was more concerned
that McCain will continue the economic policies
that have cost us jobs and caused higher prices.
First Second
-66
Obama Voters
80
14
2
Independents
48
50
67
McCain Voters
14
81
22
Voters split on investment vs. spending
Now I'm going to read you a pair of statements.
After I read the pair, please tell me whether the
FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes
closer to your own view, even if neither is
exactly right.
Statement 1 I'm more worried that we will fail
to make the investments we need to create jobs
and strengthen the economy.
Statement 2 I'm more worried that we will go too
far in increasing government spending and will
end up raising taxes to pay for it.
1
49
48
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
Page 22
23
Independents fearful government will go too far
in increasing spending
Now I'm going to read you a pair of statements.
After I read the pair, please tell me whether the
FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes
closer to your own view, even if neither is
exactly right.
Statement 1 I'm more worried that we will fail
to make the investments we need to create jobs
and strengthen the economy.
Statement 2 I'm more worried that we will go too
far in increasing government spending and will
end up raising taxes to pay for it.
First Second
38
Obama Voters
29
67
-14
Independents
54
40
-43
McCain Voters
70
27
24
Progressive Winds Shaping Role of Government
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
Page 24
25
Middle class is financially squeezed and in
decline
Now I'm going to read you a pair of statements.
After I read the pair, please tell me whether the
FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes
closer to your own view, even if neither is
exactly right.
Statement 1 America has been a middle class
country but now the middle class is financially
squeezed and in decline.
Statement 2 America is a country where there is
still broad opportunity to become middle class.
15
56
41
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
Page 25
26
MC threatened by global and economic forces, not
minorities/immigrants
Now I'm going to read you a pair of statements.
After I read the pair, please tell me whether the
FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes
closer to your own view, even if neither is
exactly right.
Statement 1 The middle class now is more
threatened by global trade, CEOs who care more
about their companies than their own country and
politicians who support free trade agreements
backed by corporate special interests.
Statement 2 The middle class today is more
threatened by affirmative action for minorities
who don't take responsibility for their own lives
and by illegal immigrants getting free government
benefits.
26
60
34
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
Page 26
27
More worried that we will give more tax breaks to
rich and corporations
Now I'm going to read you a pair of statements.
After I read the pair, please tell me whether the
FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes
closer to your own view, even if neither is
exactly right.
Statement 1 I'm more worried that we will give
more tax breaks to the rich and corporations
Statement 2 I'm more worried that we will go too
far taxing the rich and corporations.
28
61
33
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
Page 27
28
Voters more worried that too little will be done
to enforce fair trade
Now I'm going to read you a pair of statements.
After I read the pair, please tell me whether the
FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes
closer to your own view, even if neither is
exactly right.
Statement 1 I'm more worried that we will do too
little to require fair trade and enforce worker
and consumer protections.
Statement 2 I'm more worried that we will go too
far burdening free trade accords with protections
for consumers and labor.
19
53
34
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
Page 28
29
Government regulation seen as necessary to
protect the public
Now Im going to read you some statements. Please
tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND
statement comes closer to your own views, even if
neither is exactly right

Election 2002
Election 2008
Election 2004
Net Difference
17 29 18 24 27 6 7
18
30
The New Era
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
Page 30
31
Voters see times as more analogous to FDRs 1930s
than Reagans 1980s or Clintons 1990s

• 1930s Our current situation most closely
  resembles the early 1930s with our economy laid
  flat by speculative excesses on Wall Street and
  by rising inequality and stagnant wages. Like
  Franklin Roosevelt did, we must restore middle
  class prosperity by investing in hometowns and
  regions throughout the country and by curbing the
  power of big business special interests.
• 1970s Our current situation most closely
  resembles that of the late 1970s with rising oil
  and food prices and our country being challenged
  by enemies abroad. Like Ronald Reagan did when he
  was elected in 1980, we must restore our
  prosperity and position of strength in the world
  by cutting taxes, reducing regulation, and
  increasing military spending.
• 1990s Our current situation most closely
  resembles that of the early 1990s with a stagnant
  economy suffering from irresponsible management,
  huge deficits and economic inequality. Like
  Clinton did when he was elected, we must regain
  our prosperity by restoring fiscal discipline,
  making millionaires pay their fair share and
  giving working Americans real tax relief.

Note Public Interest Projects, Inc. survey of
800 likely voters nationwide conducted June
17-26, 2008.
Page 31
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
32
Voters see times as more analogous to FDRs 1930s
than Reagans 1980s or Clintons 1990s
Now I'm going to read you a pair of statements
about the current times. Please tell me whether
the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes
closer to your own views, even if neither is
exactly right.
10
-7
52
50
43
42
1990s vs. 1970s
1930s vs. 1970s
Note Public Interest Projects, Inc. survey of
800 likely voters nationwide conducted June
17-26, 2008.
Page 32
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
33
Independents see times as more analogous to FDRs
1930s than Reagans 1980s or Clintons 1990s
Now I'm going to read you a pair of statements
about the current times. Please tell me whether
the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes
closer to your own views, even if neither is
exactly right.
15
-10
53
50
40
38
1990s vs. 1970s
1930s vs. 1970s
Note Public Interest Projects, Inc. survey of
800 likely voters nationwide conducted June
17-26, 2008.
Page 33
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
34
Middle class is source of strength dramatic
changes needed to preserve
Now I'm going to read you a couple of statements
that describe America today. Please tell me, how
much truth you think there is for each one - a
great deal of truth, a fair amount of truth, not
very much truth, or no truth at all?
Dramatic Change to Restore Middle Class
Middle Class is Source of our Standing in the
World
America's greatest leaders, like Jefferson,
Lincoln, and FDR, recognized that our greatness
is built on a vibrant and growing middle class.
That's why they invested in programs that allowed
the middle class to thrive. But now our middle
class is being squeezed by stagnant wages and
rising costs while all of the gains in our
economy go only to the wealthiest among us. If we
don't want to see the American middle class
disappear we need to dramatically change our
country's economic policies.
The development of an educated and affluent
middle class is America's greatest achievement
because it is the foundation of our democracy and
our source of power and strength in the world.
But we are now at a global crossroads. Our
failure to invest in our economy, our dependence
on imported energy, and the outsourcing of middle
class jobs have undermined our economic strength
and reduced our standing in the world, leaving
our way of life under assault.
85
82
Note Public Interest Project survey of 800
likely voters nationwide conducted June 17-26,
2008.
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
Page 34
35
Less truth seen in Reagan vision
Now I'm going to read you a couple of statements
that describe America today. Please tell me, how
much truth you think there is for each one - a
great deal of truth, a fair amount of truth, not
very much truth, or no truth at all?
Reagan vision of small government, American
exceptionalism
66
Ronald Reagan demonstrated that prosperity is
best achieved when government is kept small and
taxes low. And he showed us that America, and the
world, are strongest when we use our power
exceptionally to promote freedom and liberty
abroad in the face of totalitarian enemies. With
our prosperity and confidence now threatened
again by a broken government at home and Islamic
extremists abroad, we would be wise to look to
Reagan's vision for guidance.
Note Public Interest Project survey of 800
likely voters nationwide conducted June 17-26,
2008.
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
Page 35
36
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
Page 36