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Title: From Brave New

  • From Brave New
  • Unwired World to
  • the Ever Smarter World
  • Opportunities for Internet Innovators
  • North American IPv6 Global Summit
  • June 25, 2003
  • By Alex Lightman
  • Cal(IT)2 Scholar
  • CEO, Chairman, Cofounder of Charmed Technology
  • Conference Chairman, Global IPv6 Summit

June, 2003 A Month of Milestones
  • Invention of Ethernet, Bob Metcalfe, Xerox PARC,
    Palo Alto, June, 1973
  • TCP/IP (IPv4), Stanford University, Palo Alto,
    June, 1973
  • 100th Birthday of George Orwell, June 25, 2003
    (Big Brother)

Opening Thought
  • Our primary objectives in implementing IPv6 are
    to improve customer experiences while also
    improving civilization for all humanity

Improve experience Getting 4 relationships/custo
  • Bank of America experienced churn.
  • We were stuck at 13 million customers because 3
    million would join but 3 million would leave each
  • We found that if and when people had four or
    more different relationships with B of A
    (checking, savings, credit card, bill paying,
    auto loan, mortgage) then our retention went UP
    and our churn for these people went way down.

Service Provider Revenues

Total Revenue
Old Sources
New Sources
Cambrian Explosion
Bacteria ?
Adaptive Radiation/Chaos/ Pseudo-Random
Search Evolution
Complex Environmental Interaction
Selection/Emergence/ Phase Space Collapse/ MEST
Collapse Development
Multicellularity Discovered
570 mya. 35 body plans emerged immediately after.
No new body plans since! Only new brain plans,
built on top of the body plans (homeobox gene
duplication). Body/brain plans eukaryotic
multicell. evolutionary developmental substrates.
What is a Commercial Explosion?
  • Rapid growth of a new product / service
  • Deep penetration of market
  • Spawns new, supporting industry
  • Transforms the economy
  • Examples automobiles, PCs

Drivers Of Commercial Explosions
  • Satisfies a compelling consumer need
  • Possibly one they didnt know they had
  • Leads to deep penetration of the market
  • Requires convergence of
  • Technologies
  • Government policy
  • Standards
  • Companies via partnerships and alliances
  • Ultimate winners represent best trade-off along a
    number of dimensions
  • Simple metrics not easy to define early on
  • Transportation why did the gasoline powered
    automobile win?

Economics Powered by Convergence
  • Convergence of devices and innovations clock,
    axle, wheel, lever, odometer, steering,
    speedometer, better tires, brakes, navigation
    systems, CDs) with a dozen or more improvements
    every year.
  • Convergence of networks (oil industry
    consolidation, self service stations, national
    highways, cheap maps, drivers licensing, parts,
    used cars, repairs, warranties, AAA) with
  • Many parallels to communications industry.
    Success is about the convergence of multiple
    device capabilities and of networks.

Wanted IPv6 Prosumer Innovators
  • We need people who create supply and demand for
    new IPv6 services. Ministry of Science and
    Technology, Madrid IPv6 Summit.
  • George Washington Carver (100 uses for peanut,
    entire dinner, SW)
  • Thomas Edison (over 1,050 patents, direct
    current, AC, and hundreds of way to use it)
  • Larry Smarr (from 100 scientists with SC access
    to 30,000, Mosaic/IE, Apache). The importance of

Ten Opportunities Made Possible by IPv6 Adoption
  • The basis for an explosion of evolutionary
    experiments, followed by robust survivors.
  • Massive increase in feedback loops (output
    changes input), assisting civilization.
  • Historical opportunity to increase
    subscriptions, and thus service exports.
  • Million fold increase in sensors (and data)
  • Commercial explosion, keep public interest.

Ten Opportunities Made Possible by IPv6 Adoption
  • 6. Give every person thousands of IPv6 addressed
    nanodocs, reduce cancer, aging.
  • 7. Head start in 5 way race to be 1st in 4G and
    win a multitrillion dollar grand prize.
  • 8. Augmented memory (hyper documentation of ones
    life, uploading) and augmented reality (info
  • 9. Endowing users with superpowers.
  • 10. Computational collective intelligence.

Feedback Loops The Ultimate Multiplier
  • Feedback loops allow for learning outputs to
    change behavior, prices, decisions
  • IPv6 adoption fosters HUGE feedback loops.
  • Advanced civilizations are based on an ever
    expanding quality, quantity and diversity of
    feedback loops. IPv6 supports this growth.
  • Societies with the most sophisticated ecosystems
    of feedback loops win in war and peace. IPv6
    adoption will determine social progress, justice,
    and prosperity.

Trade Deficit Feedback Export Services!
  • Services over 80 of US 11 T GDP.
  • Annual deficit of 500 B in goods (about one
    third oil, one third autos)
  • Annual surplus of 15 B in agriculture, 50 B in
  • Biggest leverage increase service exports from
    less than 1 to 5 of US services.
  • First Next Gen Cluster has opportunity to double
    GDP as service export and 4G hub.

Microsofts advanced R D discovery
  • Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R D for Microsoft
    The most valuable thing weve learned is that
    in the future everything that costs over 25
    except food will be connected to the Internet.
  • IP a pico radio could compliment, then embrace
    and extend, then replace, bar codes and RFID
  • Gillette just ordered 500,000 RFID tags.
    Razorblade sweeping.

Sensor subscriptions very valuable!
  • Eric Frost 30 measures of oil extraction allows
    doubling, from 35 to 70, of recoverable oil
    from a given reservoir.
  • Will Recker World Wide Wagon Train of 737
    million to 1 billion vehicles that exchange
    information on the road ahead.
  • John Orcutt From Buoys to MEN (Marine
    Environmental Networking). Weather prediction,
    climate change, government.
  • Articles are on http// Search
    site for Alex Lightman

The Mobile High Performance InternetThe Next
Boom, and the Next 4 Relationships
Source Ericsson
Wireless Billing
  • Minute buckets
  • Pre-pay
  • By-the-packet
  • Micropayment
  • Wireless wallet
  • QoS (conversational, streaming, interactive,
  • Bundling
  • IDC value of packet-based billing will rise from
    94.6 million in 2001 to 855.7 million in 2005.

The Mobile Internet is a Huge Opportunity
  • Aspect Fixed Mobile
  • Users 2003 Fewer More
  • Cost of device More Less
  • Billings Cumbersome Easy
  • Micropayments Very difficult Built in
  • Willingness to pay
  • Want for Free Assume it will
  • cost

Rules of Thumb for Wireless Profits
  • Any technology sufficiently advanced is
    indistinguishable from magic Arthur C. Clarke
  • MAGIC Mobile Anytime Globally Integrated
    Customized (NTT DoCoMo)
  • PAIR Personal Available Immediate Real time
  • 0-1-2-3 0 manuals, 1 button to Internet, 2
    seconds max delay, 3 keystrokes maxi to any svc
  • SMS messages set the pain threshold for billing
    (10 to 15 cents/message) so use grows

Wireless Money The 5 Ms
  • Movement escaping the fixed place
  • Moment expanding the concept of time
  • Me extending myself and my community
  • Money expending financial resources
  • Machines empowering devices.

Deeper Services
  • Movement Mobility, Locality, Globality, Home
    Base, Positioning
  • Moment Plan, Postpone, Fill Time, Catch Up,
    Multitask, Real Time
  • Me Customized, Relevant, Community, Permission,
    Presence, Multisession (most powerful, relates to
    cool self image)
  • Money M-commerce, Micropayments, M - banking,
    M-wallet, M-advertising, Sponsorship
  • Machines Telematics, Metering, Remote Access,
    Appliances, Robotics, Automation, Connecting with
    Anything and Everything

Granularity Ever Smarter Guide
  • Location aware pull information
  • Location aware pull information with location
  • sensitive map
  • Location aware pull information with map and
  • Preference based pull information with map and
  • Preference based push information with map and
  • Time sensitive push information with map and
  • Preferences learning intelligent guide with map
    and guidance

Adventures in Transparent Infrastructure
  • Broadband Internet Connection via Wireless Wi-Fi
  • Over 600 Access Points on the Campus
  • Year- Long Living Laboratory Experiment 2001-02
  • 500 Computer Science Engineering Undergraduates
  • 300 Entering UCSD Sixth College StudentsFall
  • Experiments with Geo-Location and Interactive

UC San Diego
UC Irvine
Cal-(IT)2 Team Bill Griswold, Gabriele
Wienhausen, UCSD Rajesh Gupta, UCI
The New World of Mobile Geolocation
Source Bill Griswold, CSE, UCSD
Local Wi-Fi Can Be Linked With Wide Area
Cellular Internet
  • First US Taste of 3G Cellular Internet
  • UCSD Jacobs School Antenna
  • Three Years Before Commercial
  • Linking to 802.11 Mobile Bubble
  • Tested on Campus CyberShuttle
  • You Can Ride it on Friday on the Tour!b

Rooftop Qualcomm 1xEV Access Point
Roberto Padovani, CTO Qualcomm
Movement Other Services
  • Launch soon and learn from feedback
  • Translation (typed in text, translate text and
    say the words, human interpreters, translate my
  • Business Services
  • Fleet control (get right vehicle in right place,
  • CRM and the corporate portal (present only vital
    data on customer, calendar, FAQs)
  • Order entry system (Purchasing history)
  • Telehealth (patient monitoring devices, remote
    care, access to doctors
  • Synchronizing devices (Virtual PDA)
  • Employee (monitoring, bundle h/o, Vir Home Env)

Moment Making use of every second
  • Mobile Entertainment (esp. games)
  • Micro Movies and advertainment
  • Entertainment bundling (jokes, horoscopes,
    puzzles, games, cartoons, spoofs, trivia, voting)
  • Repackaging serial content (daily subscription,
    content archive, content fan club, Hollycules
    to own or gift, viral marketing content)
  • Mobile information and infotainment (info push,
    news, premium news coverage, news partners)
  • Customized news, alerts (apartment finder)
  • Info pull (white and yellow pages, dictionaries,
    calendars, comparison shopper)

Me Mobile Extending Self, Community
  • Rich calls (enhancing voice with images, sounds)
  • Draw me the map/shared whiteboard)
  • Shared video image, shared original music
  • Games and rich call (taunting opponents)
  • Personalizing calls (custom ring and picture,
    Corporate Face Catalog, Look whos calling,
    Personal publicity photo, image of topic)
  • Show me (remote eye, repairman, real estate)
  • Video calls
  • CRM (money rewards, dynamic location lock)
  • Messaging for love (Dating, SMS, MMS)
  • Communities (spreading message, chat)

Mobile Money
  • M-Commerce (ticketinglook for lines)
  • Selling digital content (mass audience content
    that is already digital, know how in digital
  • Delivering digitally non digital content
  • Government fees, licenses, taxes
  • Tangible item purchase (vs. credit card, but on
    phone bill)
  • Mobile Advertising (mAd, NOT mAd spam, location
    based advertising at mass audience events,
    sports, ballet, church, movies)
  • Ads in music streaming, guaranteed listeners
  • Rewarding mAd/frequent viewer miles
  • Infovirus, call to action, Smart mobs, coupons,
    blue light.
  • M-banking, wiring money to mobile users phone

Machine Services The Internet Iceberg
  • Automobile Telematics (Car service and
    maintenance, car navigation, road advertisement
    requests, car security)
  • Car multitasking, games for kids in car
  • Service integration (Home Entertainment tells car
    what businesses you clicked on, streaming to PDA
    of MP3 on home computer, three degrees)
  • Remote views (inspections, Homeland security)
  • Remote control (home control, home alarm,
    industrial metering, traffic monitoring)
  • Law enforcement (speed trap, call criminal)
  • Feedback (customer surveys, auto check in)

Exercise Was the First Wireless Monitoring
As Our Bodies Move On-LineDigital Medicine Will
  • New SensorsVideo Pill
  • Battery, Light, Video Camera
  • Images Transmitted to Hip Device
  • Next StepPutting You On-Line!
  • Wireless Internet Transmission
  • Key Metabolic and Physical Variables
  • Model -- Dozens of Processors and 60 Sensors /
    Actuators Inside of our Cars
  • Post-Genomic Personalized Medicine
  • Combine Across Populations
  • Genetic Code
  • Digital Imaging
  • Body Data Flow
  • Use Powerful AI Data Mining
Conceptual Framework for a Personal Medical
  • WAN
  • PAN
  • Personal Medical Assistant
  • - Multi-Network Gateway
  • Processor
  • Sensor Data Analysis,
  • Monitoring,
  • Coding
  • -Communicates With Monitoring Station
  • Medical
  • Monitoring
  • Station
  • Event Analysis
  • Data Shaping
  • Control Data
  • Sensors
  • Sensor Data
  • Control Data
  • Local-area networking

Source Sujit Dey. UCSD ECE
Current and Potential Markets for Remote Patient
  • Wellness
  • Fitness Monitoring
  • Obesity Epidemic
  • Ambulatory Hospital Patients
  • Cardiac Out Patients
  • Elder Care
  • Global Population of People Over 65, Will
    Increase 88 by 2025
  • Clinical Trials
  • New Drug Discovery
  • Emergency Response
  • Natural Disasters
  • Homeland Security

What is a SensorNet?
  • Sensors
  • Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,
  • Sensor Platform
  • Computing, Power, Storage, Radios,
  • Telecommunications Infrastructure
  • Wired, Wireless, Internet,
  • Sensor Arrays
  • Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc,
  • Layered Software
  • Backend Data Systems

Environmental SensorNets--Water and Climate
Instrumentsin the Santa Margarita Ecological
Source, Dan Cayan, UCSD SIO
Integrate Remote Reconnaissance with Satellite
Imagery and Ground SensorNets

HOTLINKs for Damage Locations
using GPS and Digital Photos on GIS
Maria Feng UCI Civil Environmental Engineering
Putting Laboratories on a Chip
Source Greg McRae, MIT and ANL
Can Schools Become a Source for Data Intensive
California Air Resources Board
Potential for Dramatic Increase in Coverage!
Ad Hoc Mesh Wireless Distributed Sensor Network
Source Graviton
  • Application Examples
  • Homeland Security
  • Emissions Monitoring
  • M2M Communications

Multi-Sensor Data Fusion Control Rooms Will
Integrate SensorNets with Legacy Data
  • Common Needs for Research or Emergency Response
  • Situational Awareness
  • Common Operational Picture
  • Local Data Warehouse with Remote Data Access
  • AI Data Mining of Distributed Databases
  • Spatial Data Analysis
  • Consequences Assessment Tool Set

Image Source Panoram Technologies
CAL-(IT)2 WIISARD Scenario for Improving
Emergency Medical Response
Source Dr. Leslie Lenert, UCSD SOM
IPv6 Contributions to an Ever Smarter World
  • Data collection to knowledge synthesis, data
  • Data ? Information ? Knowledge
  • IPv6 will help us collect mine usable
    information from massive amounts of data.
  • Integrated technologies
  • Sensors, computation, data management
  • IPv6 will enable us to develop end-to-end
    applications which integrate ALL technologies.

IPv6 Contributions to an Ever Smarter World
  • Universal Access
  • Location-independence, ubiquitous access to
    computing, data, resources
  • IPv6 enables us to develop applications that can
    be initiated from anywhere at anytime
  • Global-scale collaboration
  • Collaboration tools, access, interoperability
  • IPv6 enables us to communicate, work, and
    recreate with people all over the world, even as
    we go nomadic and constantly mobile

Trends that will drive this decade
  • Shrinking computers
  • Coopers Law
  • Shifting from Hardware to software to services
  • Galaxy of Gadgets
  • AR and Milgrams Continuum

The Incredible Shrinking Computer

The Borgs are Loose and Coming for You(New York
Times, Oct., 1999)
  • BORGS ARE THE HARBINGERS OF 4G and use wearable
    computers all day, every day
    sort of onbody Google that searches and ranks
    each new input for relevance.
  • SOUND BORGS Greg Priest Dorman, dyslexic
    sysadmin, uses CharmIT to do text to speech for
    all his messages, at 3 to 5 times normal rate.
  • VIDEO BORGS Steve Mann has been wearing video
    cameras for over a decade of souveillance. Asks
    wife to pick fruit remotely friends for
    location advice.

Market Adoption
  • Innovators
  • Research Labs, Universities
  • Technophiles
  • Govt / Military
  • Early Adopters
  • Field Technicians
  • Medical Specialists
  • Stock Brokers
  • Early Majority
  • Gen Y
  • Upper / Middle Income Entertainment
  • People with Disabilities
  • Late Majority
  • Mobile workforce

Applications of Wearable Computers
  • Mobile Entertainment Systems
  • Point of Sales Terminals
  • Portable Test Equipment
  • Industrial Automation
  • Automotive Repair Diagnostics
  • Banking
  • Kiosks
  • Thin Client/Server Applications
  • Embedded Internet/intranet Appliances/Gateways/Fir
  • Wireless Network Repeaters or Base Stations
  • Scientific Surveys
  • Construction
  • Academic Instruction
  • Personnel training
  • Customer and user studies
  • Network analysis mobile nfs diagnosis, intruder
    detection, packet sniffing

Value Proposition
Wearable Computers
High Functionality
Cell Phones PDAs Pagers
Old Mainframes
Low Functionality
High Mobility
Low Mobility
The New Powers of Ten
Network Operations Model
Old network management systems were single
vendor solutions optimized for cost in rigid
five-year preplanned networks.
Mainframe/ IBM era
101 people/machine ratio
Minicomputer/ DEC era
11 people/machine ratio
Workstation/ PC era
110 people/machine ratio
New network operations systems must be designed
for adaptability and change (new equipment,
multiple vendors, new service offerings/
Enterprise networks/ Cisco era
1100? people/machine ratio
Broadband packet networks ?
11000? people/machine ratio
Source Paul Johnson
1000s of subscriptions/person
  • Given Imagings camera/sensor pill that you
    swallow, with data recorded onto a hiptop
    Personal Black Box.
  • Medical Microelectronic Machines (later nanodocs)
    tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment
    against millions of high resolution medical
    records, each with IP address.
  • Localizers as described in Vernor Vinges A
    Deepness in the Sky will link internal and
    external bodies.
  • The value of curing cancer, heart disease approx.
    50 trillion each. Milken Institute.

Source Pister,Berkeley
16 mm3 total circumscribed volume4.8 mm3 total
displaced volume
Source Pister, Berkeley
Over the Next Decade NanobioinfoengineeringWill
Revolutionize SensorNets
How do you manage all those tiny doctors?
  • IPv6
  • features
  • 3.41038 unique addresses available
  • Stateless autoconfiguration
  • Security authentication and encryption
  • Mobility management

How can we secure these doctors? IPv6
  • IPSec
  • uses IPv6 extension headers
  • security modes
  • authentication on IP level
  • encryption on IP level
  • based on private and public key algorithms
  • manual or automatic key distribution
  • allows secure end-to-end communication and
    Virtual Private Networks

Mobility management in IPv6
  • Goals
  • transparency of mobility to higher layers
  • addressability using the home address





Mobile node



The mobile cyborg
Coopers Law
  • Spectral efficiency doubles every 2.5 years

The Shifting Market
  • Hardware ? Software ?Services
  • Services
  • Hardware
  • Software


Endowing IPv6 Users with Superpowers
  • Omniscience ability to know almost anything,
    instantly (John Doe)
  • Clairvoyance ability to see what is happening
    anywhere on earth
  • Omnipresence ability to project power or
    influence anywhere
  • Collective Intelligence joining minds

The Killer App of Ubiquitous IP
  • Six billion people online
  • using human-centric wearable devices
  • that allow reception, context-aware processing,
    retransmission of signals
  • including electromagnetic spectrum (television,
    radio, cellular, satellite, medical, etc.)
  • and molecules (smells and chemicals)
  • all provided for an affordable fee
  • and constituting the largest industry.

The Wireless Broadband University
  • Any data, images, videos, animations, avatar
    mentors living or dead or imaginary or composite
    are available to anyone at anytime.
  • Augmented reality presentations replace
    Powerpoint presentations.
  • Pocket College any course, any test, anytime,
    anywhere, anyone.
  • Upgrading the workforce every quarter.

Campuses Are Increasingly Covered With High
Bandwidth Wi-Fi Wireless Internet Zones
  • UCSD Wireless Projects
  • ActiveClass
  • ActiveCampus
  • Explorientation
  • CyberShuttle
  • UCI Wireless Projects
  • GPS PDAs
  • Intelligent Transportation
  • Wearables

Municipal Broadband Roll Out
  • Municipalities cover over 300 square miles with
    802.11x (two circles with a 7 mile radius, pi x r
    squared, 49 sq. miles x 3.14) if they have
    backhaul. System now working at UCSD Wi Fi
    Bubble, including on the Cyberbus at gives
    bursts of 2 Mbps and, more typically, about 450
    Kbps. Malls, campuses, bases can afford.
  • With 6WiFi and participation in CIBER, the CTIA
    administrated roaming billing system, this
    becomes roamable, and economically fungible.
  • Give citizens wireless broadband as a public
    good, like fountains that create a positive
    microclimate in dry, hot cities, only for
    business and communication.

The Great Augmentation
  • Augmented memory allows hyper documentation of
    ones life, recording everything and keeping the
    Life Bits on your 100 GB hard drive on your hip.
  • In the future, after emergence of AI, you may
    want to upload yourself to the net.
  • Augmented reality allows us to overlay
    semitransparent text, images, video, from context
    awareness. Head tracking enables hands free

The Paradigm Shift
Milgrams Continuum (1994)
  • Tangible AR interfaces support transitions along
    the Reality-Virtuality Continuum

The Next Logical Step In Wireless Data
The Information Foundation
  • Just as foundation of building (brick vs.
    structural steel) determines how high it can go,
    the information foundation (structure of
    networks) determines how high civilization can
  • Jim Bound IPv6 is infrastructure!
  • Latif Ladid IPv4 is straining to support just
    one application like the World Wide Web. IPv6
    could support at least ten applications the size
    of the WWW.
  • Like putting round peg in round hole how do we
    drop entire industries into the expanding IPv6,
    creating commercial explosions?

A Mania for Measures and New Names
  • The Measure of Reality Quantification and
    Western Society 1250 to 1600 by Alfred Crosby
  • Europeans were nothing special around 1000, were
    the science leaders in 1500, and then dominated
    the world. Why? Many excuses, but only one clear
    difference mania for measurement and
  • Measuring India to the yard. Mad dogs and
  • Musical notation thousand singing from the same
  • Perspective in painting 50 innovators in
    Temperance, greater realism led to being on
    walls, led to goals setting, historical
    recognition, and objective mentality.
  • Clocks went from town squares gt tables gt wrists,
    and helped determine longitude.
  • Science led to technology led to victory and

The Seven Wonders of the Ancient World
  • The Pyramids of Giza
  • The Hanging Gardens of Babylon
  • The Colossus of Rhodes
  • The Lighthouse of Alexandria
  • The Mausoleum of Halicarnassus
  • The Temple of Artemis at Ephesus
  • The Temple of Zeus at Olympiad

The Seven Wonders of the IPv6 World
  • Terra Sapiens create us as superorganism.
  • Earth, Incorporated all of us shareholders
  • 4GEO Give every square meter its own unique IPv6
    address, then link to GIS software, GPS, and
    allow posting messages.
  • The World Water Web put RF sensors almost
    everywhere to signal Wet, Hot, etc. and get real
    time measure in liters.
  • The Great Replication 3D copy of everything
  • The Great Augmentation sharing POV
  • The Ultimate Market anyone buy, sell, anything.

The Colossus of Rhodes
The Statue of Liberty
  • We Don't Want to
  • Wait For 2000 Years!

  • Atlas application, supports the world
  • Voice (500 billion annually)
  • Radio (add personalization, location)
  • Television (Every show ever made)
  • Medical Monitoring
  • Simulations
  • High resolution Location Based Services,
    including security

Powers of IPv6
  • Power of Numbering
  • Power of Sequencing
  • Power of Ranking
  • Power of Naming
  • Power of Leading
  • Power of Granularity
  • Power of Bounding
  • Power of Finer Address (from c/o General
    Delivery to street to 5 digit zip to 9 digit zip
    to 128 digit zip)
  • Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
  • Power of Containerized Cargo
  • Power of Tight Targeting
  • Power of Better Modeling and Simulation

Closing Thought
  • The future is here.
  • Its just not evenly distributed.
  • William Gibson.
  • Alex Lightman

Books come with 24 hour tech support, lunch, and
a friendship
Closing Thought
Thank you! Please stay in touch. Alex
Lightman Tel. 310 717 7745
  • Thank you for coming! See you in November at the
    next Summit.