Science vs. Fiction: Thinking and Living the Future on Fast Forward

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Science vs. FictionThinking and Living the
Future on Fast Forward
Rick Luce Vice Provost and Director
Libraries Emory University
Irish Universities Information Services
Colloquium Athlone -- March 7, 2007
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Thinking about the future

• To leave with new thinking
• Looking at past predictions, today, and probable
  future directions
• Ask ourselves hard questions
• Strategic thinking is a skill
• We cannot experience the future until it becomes
  the present the core skill for
  understanding the future is the willingness
• to see it -- and see it in perspective.
• Jennifer James, Thinking in the Future Tense

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1954 Popular Mechanics Magazine
Caution
Scientists from the RAND Corporation created this
model to illustrate how a home computer could
look in 2004. However the needed technology will
not be economically feasible for the average
home. Also the scientists readily admit that the
computer will require not yet invented technology
to actually work, but 50 years from now
scientific progress is expected to solve these
problems. With teletype interface and the Fortran
language, the computer will be easy to use.
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Signposts and Dangerous Ideas

• Signposts taking a look at the world around us
• More change in science is forecasted in next 50
  years than in the last 400 since 1606
• Information expansion growth rate of 66 year
  while physical production grows by only 3 year
  (China 7 - 8).
• On a scale of decades or longer, information is
  the fastest growing thing on the planet
• What would stop this trend?

• A dangerous idea is one not assumed to be false,
  but possibly true
• History of science is replete with discoveries
  considered socially / morally
• dangerous (e.g., Copernican Darwinian
  revolutions)
• Royal Society president M. Rees said the most
  dangerous idea today is
• public concern that science and technology are
  running out of control
• What do you believe is true even though you cant
  prove it?

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Looking Ahead Perspective from Science

• Science is changing the process of how we know
  things - and the foundation of our culture and
  knowledge
• Hypothesis search and deep real time simulations
  drive data collection and information
  manipulation

• Distributed instrumentation and experiments
  will yield smart-mob, hive mind science
  operating fast, cheap, and out of control
• Triple blind experiments emerge through massive
  non-invasive statistical data. No one realizes
  experiment is going on till much later
• Negative results have positive value
• see Journal of Negative Results in Biomedicine.
• How will life be changed by the rise of infinite
  computer power?

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Emerging new ways of knowing in science

• Evolutionary search combinatorial exploration of
  variations derived from the best of a previous
  generation of good results. Best results are
  mutated and bred for better results
• Multiple Hypothesis Matrix matrix of many
  scenarios are proposed and managed simultaneously
• Adaptive Real Time Experiments real time result
  evaluation and modification of large scale
  experiments. Analysis happens in parallel with
  collection and design of the test is shifted on
  the fly
• Wiki-science experiments involving thousands of
  investigators collaborating on a paper which is
  ongoing and never finished
• Tools for tracking credit and contributions are
  vital
• Zillionics ubiquitous always-on sensors in
  bodies and environments
• Intelligent bio-machines putting nanobots into
  our bloodstream
• What will be the impact of going beyond the
  limits of biology?
• Kevin Kelley, Speculations on the Future of
  Science. Edge, the Third Culture

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Heads up 4 info/technology trends

• Cell phones - not PC, will be our primary access
  device
• Allows constant pervasive data entry, including
  streaming A/V and instant locationally-aware
  receipt of relevant intelligence
• Smart data - via XML, Geocoding, standards
  context is in
• Content Googlization of intelligence, when
  enhanced, will put industrial era aggregators out
  of business Factiva, LEXIS, DIALOG -- dead
• World Brain - IBM linked DB2 with Google
  Enterprise add CISCO AON and CISCO IPICS -gt
  globally distributed, instantly exploitable
• Open Hypertext Document from Bootstrap (Doug
  Englebart) allows links, discovery, and
  micro-cash purchase at the paragraph level
• Gaming, not reports, will rule
• Virtual reality games, not reports, will teach,
  inspire, allow for safe testing of different
  scenarios and investment strategies
• Who should Google partner with next?

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Hot Data and Information Issues

• eScience, cyber-infrastructure and data curation
• Data publishing on the grid
• Data integration - tying together data from
  various sources
• Annotation - adding comments observations to
  existing data, becoming a new form
  of communication
• Provenance - where did this data come from?
• Exporting/publishing in agreed formats - to other
  programs people
• Security - Specifying/enforcing read/write access
  to parts of your data

• A day walking in London 700-900 photos, what
  happens to them?
• What happens to our libraries when surveillance
  technologies and security trump privacy?

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e-Resources Libraries

• e-Libraries
• Success adding value providing a compelling
  experience
• Users looking to find, not to search
• Evaluate the library experience
• Therefore take greater control of serving up
  content
• Why do we license content in the current mode?
• Focus on working the puzzle, not the piece
• The alternative web referral linking
  purchasing agents

What will dominate our attention after the
information knowledge age matures in 20 years?
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Web 2.0

• All information is brought to user's desktop by
  existing web services
• E.g., Amazon's recommendation, review, and book
  cover
• Libray 2.0 Implement library services with
  industry-strength software and practice
• Reflects a transition in the way services are
  delivered to library users
• What does a library catalog or article database
  look like if it took full advantage of the web?
• See YouTube Web 2.0 ... The Machine is Us/ing
  Us
• Social software
• Blogs - allowing more people to publish in
  diverse ways
• Wikis - MIT OpenWetWare, applies the same
  approach to sharing lab protocols and data among
  bio groups worldwide
• Collaborative filtering to reduce information
  overload
• Whats next for collaboration?

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Some Library 2.0 Trends

• Mashups
• Website or web application seamlessly combines
  content from multiple sources into an integrated
  experience
• Content is typically sourced from a third party
  via a public interface
• Google allows public interactions with Google
  Maps software so individuals can develop creative
  uses for the mapping software, e.g., the Chicago
  Crime map LibraryThing.com
• Mash culture collaboration is in and consumers
  demand to be part of product development process
  personal power in a no-wait world

• Why the difference between the library world and
  the web world?

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Deep vs. Shallow Infrastructure

• Shallow infrastructure cool, fast, micro
  formats, doing the right thing, breadth
• Microformats to exchange data on web contact
  cards, calendar events, directions, mapping
  services, etc.
• Live Clipboard MS system to copy/paste
  structured web information
• Deep infrastructure durability, depth, emphasis
  on quality metadata
• Contrast
• SRW Z39.50 with dozens of developers vs. Amazon
  web API with millions of developers
• METS community (encoding metadata about objects
  within a digital library, using XML) vs. MPEG-21
  community
• Which one would you choose?
• Why do we have so many silo standards' and
• special purpose software?

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Looking Out on the Horizon

• Time compression is changing the lifestyle of
  library users
• People sleep two hours less per night vs. 80
  years ago, (8.9 to 6.9 hrs)
• 34 of lunches today are eaten on the run
• 66 of young people surf the web watch TV at
  the same time
• 43 in our society have trouble making decisions
  due to data overload

• Early stages of (re)transitioning to a verbal
  society ?
• One need that will go away is the need to use
  keyboards
• As we say goodbye to keyboards we begin the
  transition to a verbal society
• What is the next project to change the
  information
• world significantly?

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The Book in Evolution

• Transitioning from a product-based economy to an
  experience based economy
• Going are the days of the solemn book-reading
  experience in the library. Activities are
  diverse and varied as a way of presenting and
  interacting with information in new and unusual
  formats
• Books themselves will transition from a product
  to an experience.
• As the form of the book changes from words on a
  page to various interactive digital
  manifestations of information, future books will
  be reviewed and evaluated by the experience they
  create

In 2050 will literacy be dead?
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Critical opportunities for libraries in the next
5 years

• Machines - the next generation of readers
• Machines will "read" those new and old optimized
  book collections
• Data publishing on the grid
• Data curation - long term knowledge culture
  preservation
• Enhancing the user experience -- facilitating
  global user workflows
• Channel editing and sense making
• What are appropriate information management
  values and behaviors in the networld?

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Channel Editing weblog content Materials
Science portal includes new articles and
news fed by channel editors
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The reality of where we are today
If a miracle occurred and you woke up to find
that your library was exactly what you think it
should be - what would it be like? Meredith
Farkas, Other Voices blog

• From just-in-case to just-in-time, we have failed
  to understand that for most purposes what the
  user requires is just enough to complete the task
  at hand
• Its not about separate sources anymore
• Its not about human reading anymore
• Its about integrating everything
• Collecting relevant offline information
• Machine-aided collation exploitation
• Connecting experts and their students
• Presenting the information in a compelling way

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Southern Spaces _at_ Emory
What enhanced forms of peer-reviewed scholarship
are possible digitally that cannot be
accomplished in print?

• Peer-reviewed Internet journal with digital
  essays and presentations on spatial conceptions
  of the American South
• Pioneers new forms of interdisciplinary scholarly
  communication not feasible in print video/photo
  essays, timescapes, geospatial analysis of
  cultures, and hypermedia poetry
• Now used across the country for teaching and
  research

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Voyages _at_ Emory (Transatlantic Slave Trade
Database Online)
What integrated systems for quantitative and
geographic analysis have utility for
interdisciplinary inquiry?

• Public access to the canonical database
  chronicling the five centuries of the
  transatlantic slave trade
• Includes statistical and geographic charting
  capabilities for interdisciplinary research
• Represents the digital culmination of decades of
  historical research by an international team of
  scholars led by Emory faculty
• Creating web infrastructure for international
  collaboration on assembling primary research
  knowledge bases

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Who is citing my papers?
How do we make our tools compatible with user
expectations of how the web works?
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ActiveGraph _at_ LANL
Data set Papers published by LANL authors in
2002 and indexed SciSearch through August 2003
Patterns become clear after applying a
logarithmic transformation
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ScienceSifter _at_ LANL creating a category feed

• Profile a groups
• information needs
• Create aggregated, filtered
• RSS feeds
• Aggregate source feeds
• Filter source feeds by keywords

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ScienceSifter exploring results
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Whats at stake in this new paradigm?

• Earth systems science how the earth is changing
  and the consequences for life on earth requires
  systems supporting interdisciplinary analysis
• Astronomy Biosystems and life sciences
• Atmosphere bio migration patterns
• Lithosphere Population dynamics and migration
  patterns
• Hydrology Carbon cycles
• Geophysics and geology etc., etc
• Global climate change
• Natural disaster forecasting tsunamis,
  earthquakes, hurricanes, floods, fires, localized
  weather extremes
• Computational pathomics 21C disease detection
  and spread via study of the molecular basis of
  infectious disease

Problems cannot be solved at the same level of
awareness that created them Albert Einstein
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Component Models and Coupling Strategies
From National Center for Atmospheric Research
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Repositories, Workflow and Data Archiving
Enabling group-to-group interaction in persistent
electronic spaces
Profiles of scientists groups
Archived publications
Information feeds
Pre- published documents
Registry of instruments sensors
Access to resources and tools
Harvested information from other sources
Registry of data sets
Visualizations of data
Registry of Software toolkits
Data from instruments sensors
Analysis of data
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Feedback Loop is too long
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Log analysis for trend prediction
How will flipped axes of value affect our
futures?
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Differing views of information landscapes
ISI Journal Citation Reports 2003
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Preservation MetaArchive Project _at_ Emory

• Secure, distributed network for digital archives,
  with conspectus building, organizational
  agreements, content selection, format migration,
  and technical training
• Producing new open source applications of the
  LOCKSS software for distributed institutional
  archives
• Collaborative partnership of six universities,
  the National Digital Preservation Program, and
  the LOCKSS Alliance

U Louisville, Ky
Virginia Tech
Auburn U, Alabama
Florida State U,
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Repositioning the organization a few strategies
The world needs uninhibited thinkers, not afraid
of far out speculation it also needs
hard-headed conservative engineers who can make
their dreams come true. Arthur C. Clarke

• Cultivating customer loyalty -- measures that
  matter
• Quality of product and processes
• Innovation
• Research leadership
• Brand identity
• Market share
• Ability to attract and retain employees
• Demonstrate value to management by solving
  management needs
• How many do you use? Why not all of these?

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Some concluding thoughts the road ahead
Move from being custodians of information to
catalysts for renewal
We must do much more than aggregate and provide
access to digital scientific information ... Our
job now is to wire people's brains together so
that sharing, reasoning, and collaboration become
part of everyday work. Rick Luce,
Bits, April 1998
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Facing up to the future

• Help your organization thrive in a world of
  accelerating change 
• Ask and answer dangerous questions
• Actively question and redefine your role
• Continuously seek customer understanding - the
  real issue is how technology will influence how
  users behave and what they expect
• Focus on figuring out how to make continuous
  renewal an integral part of your organization /
  unit / team
• What actions can you take to be an enemy of
  complacency?

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My dangerous question
We all have positive or negative energy and
influence -- how will you choose to use your
influence?
As change accelerates, so must the pace of
strategic renewal

• What are you -- and we -- going to do about it?