Strawperson: The impact of new insitu observations in a world crowded with satellite data. Tom Hamil - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Strawperson: The impact of new insitu observations in a world crowded with satellite data. Tom Hamil

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Hypothesis: Cheap in-situ platforms will still have a substantial impact on ... Method: limited field program with cheap observations. ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Strawperson: The impact of new insitu observations in a world crowded with satellite data. Tom Hamil


1
Straw-personThe impact of new in-situ
observations in a world crowdedwith satellite
data.Tom Hamill
2
Concerns
  • Do cost / benefit of field programs vs. other
    ways of spending THORPEX funds. Do field
    programs only to extent theyre a research
    bargain.
  • Non-parochial need to have field program that
    will garner international support and
    participation.

Proceed under assumption that the following is of
value
3
The impact of new in-situ observations in a world
crowdedwith satellite data.
4
If we add no new in-situ, what will be the
changes to NWP 10 years hence? Presumably better,
because
  • New satellite platforms
  • Hyperspectral sounders
  • GPS-Met occultations
  • many more.
  • Better models and assimilation systems
  • Higher resolution, less representativeness error
  • Better fidelity, better background forecasts.
  • 4D-Var with weak constraint, allowing model
    errors

5
Then again
  • New systems still mostly will observe where the
    clouds are not.
  • Tough to develop efficient H operators, so a new
    satellite doesnt necessarily mean new obs into
    NWP models
  • Singular-vector (energy norm) literature suggests
    that crucial errors are often in the cloudy,
    precipitating baroclinic zones.

6
Will new in-situ have the impact 10 years hence
they do now?
  • Assumption Only cheap new in-situ platforms
    are likely to be deployed.
  • Hypothesis Cheap in-situ platforms will still
    have a substantial impact on forecast accuracy 10
    years hence, when flooded with sounder data.

7
Proposed program
  • Method limited field program with cheap
    observations.
  • Extensive OSSE development so they provide
    realistic assessments of observation impact.
  • Compare/validate impact from OSSEs to impact from
    real observations.
  • OSSEs of impact given network 10 years hence.
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