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A Changing United States

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... state level and is a very political mix of politics, cartography, and 'black art' ... LA-Riverside-Orange CA (16.4) Chicago-Gary-Kenosha IL-IN-WI(9.2) ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: A Changing United States


1
A Changing United States
  • What the census shows

2
A popular-style presentation of census history
and data
3
Barbara Everitt Bryant
  • Research Scientist,
  • University of Michigan Business School
  • Director, Bureau of the Census 1989 - 1993

4
THE CONSTITUTION
5
Article 1 Section 2
  • Representatives and direct Taxes shall be
    apportioned among the several States which may be
    included in this Union, according to their
    respective numbers…The actual Enumeration shall
    be made within three Years after the first
    meeting of the Congress of the United States, and
    within every subsequent Term of ten years, in
    such Manner as they shall by Law direct.

6
It was put in the Constitution to
  • Divide up taxes among the states (this was
    discontinued after War of 1812)
  • Reapportion House of Representatives between the
    states

7
Other Uses of Census Data
  • Redistrictingdrawing boundaries for
    Congressional, legislative, etc. districts
  • Distribution of federal funds
  • Site location
  • Marketing
  • Program needs planning
  • Demographic change research

8
The Law Title 13 U.S. Code
  • Delegates to Secretary of Commerce, then Census
    Director
  • Guarantees individual privacy
  • Supreme Court has interpreted cant use
    statistical sampling for apportionment, probably
    OK for other uses of census data

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10
The census is controversial
  • It moves power Congressional reapportionment
    Congressional, state legislative redistricting
    redistricting of many elective bodies--city
    councils, school boards, etc.
  • It moves money Over 100 federal programs that
    allocate 180 billion/year have census counts in
    some part of formulae

11
Three things people fight about
  • Money
  • Power
  • Sex
  • The census measures them all

12
  • Census creates winners and losers
  • 1860 Slave vs Free States
  • 1870 Effect of 14th Amendment former slaves now
    full persons
  • 1911 Size of Congress fixed at 435
  • 1920 Rural vs Urban
  • 1962 Baker v Carr (one person/one vote)
  • 1965 Voting Rights Act
  • 1968 Housing Act
  • Federal aid becomes 15 of state and local funds

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14
In 210 years we grew from a nation of 3.9 to
281.4 million
15
Population Growth 1790 - 2000
16
The Center of the U.S. PopulationA History
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18
Population Growth by State
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20
100 Years of Population Shifts
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22
Reapportionment after 1990 2000 censuses
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24
Redistrictingdrawing the boundaries
  • The census gets blamed, but has no role in
    redistricting. It is done at the state level and
    is a very political mix of politics, cartography,
    and black art

25
In his later years, Dr. Rorschach dabbled in
Congressional redistricting
26
Housing Units
  • 2000 116.9 million 9 vacant
    Occupied 66 owner
    34 renter
  • 1990 102.3 million 10
    vacant Occupied 65 owner
    35 renter

27
The 10 largest cities
  • 1. New York
  • 2. Los Angeles
  • 3. Chicago
  • 4. Houston
  • 5. Philadelphia
  • 6. Phoenix
  • 7. San Diego
  • 8. Dallas
  • 9. San Antonio
  • 10. Detroit
  • Lost population in decade

28
Nine Metropolitan Areas of 5 Million or More
  • NY-NJ-LI-CT-PA (21.2)
  • LA-Riverside-Orange CA (16.4)
  • Chicago-Gary-Kenosha IL-IN-WI(9.2)
  • Washington-Baltimore DC-MD-VA-WV (7.6)
  • San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose CA (7.0)
  • Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City PA-NJ-DE-MD
    (6.2)
  • Boston-Worcester-Lawrence MA-NH-ME-CT (5.8)
  • Detroit-AA-Flint MI (5.5)
  • Dallas-Ft Worth TX (5.2)

29
An increasingly diverse population
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33
Data that highlight local differences
34
Ann Arbor is the most integrated city in Michigan
(William Frey, University of Michigan)
35
Our population is aging
36
Median Age of the Population
37
In a university town, the population never grows
old
  • MEDIAN AGE
  • 35.3 United States
  • 33.5 Michigan
  • 28.1 Ann Arbor

38
Immigrants keep the nation younger. Median age
  • 38.5 Whites
  • 35.3 TOTAL POPULATION
  • 32.3 Asians
  • 30.5 African Americans
  • 28.5 American Indians
  • 26.6 Hispanics

39
Foreign-Born Population History
  • 1860- 1920 13-15
  • 1930 11.6
  • 1970 4.7
  • 2000 11.1
  • Early immigration mostly from Europe 2000
    half from Latin America, one-fourth from Asia

40
Language other than English spoken at home
  • 1990 13.8
  • 2000 17.0

41
Illegal immigrants now estimated as 7-8 million
42
Household Structure
43
Families With Children
44
Median household income 41,343 (1990 - 30,056)
  • RANGE
  • 54,226 New Jersey
  • 43,448 Michigan
  • 28,569 West Virginia

45
Education (persons 25)
46
College Graduates 2000
47
Bathrooms show how the U.S. has changed since 1940
  • Complete plumbingpiped
  • hot and cold water, flush
  • toilet, tub or shower
  • 1940 55 of housing
  • 2000 99

48
And here are some changes since 1930…
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50
How accurate is the U.S. census?
51
  • George Washington complained of an undercount in
    the 1790 census
  • But neither he nor Thomas Jefferson, who directed
    the census, knew how to fix it

52
Discovery of the differential undercount - 1940
  • More men 18-45 registered for the draft in fall
    1940 than were counted in the 1940 census in
    April
  • Draft registration was particularly higher among
    black men

53
1940s Start of Demographic Analysis with
Non-census Data
  • Births Deaths Immigration Emigration
    Estimate of population

54
Demographic Analysis Undercount
  • 1940 5.4
  • 1950 4.1
  • 1960 3.1
  • 1970 2.7
  • 1980 1.2
  • 1990 1.8
  • 2000 -0.7

55
Demographic Analysis cant be used to adjust (add
estimate of uncounted to) a census
  • Not enough detail
  • National only
  • Black or non-black only

56
1950s and on Census Bureau uses surveys as
evaluation tools
57
Why Adjustment Is Political Issue
  • Undercount level varies by race, ethnicity, sex,
    age, home ownership
  • This means undercount is geographically
    differentially distributed between states and
    within states
  • Overcounted are those with 2 housing units and
    college studentsvery different socioeconomically
    than undercounted

58
2000 Census
  • Count higher than expected 281,424,177
  • Demographic Analysis estimate Overcount of
    0.7
  • Post-census survey estimates 2000 -Undercount of
    1.18 Revised 2001 to 0.6 Revised 2003 to
    Overcount of 0.5
  • Census Bureau could not recommend adjustment for
    redistricting or other uses of census data to
    Secretary of Commerce

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60
Summary
  • The U.S. census is amazingly accurate for a
    population in which nearly half of households
    live in a different housing unit than they did 5
    years earlier!

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63
After 1990 and 2000 Censuses
  • Post-enumeration survey
  • 150,000 households-1990 300,000-2000
  • Capture/recapture methodology
  • Estimates undercount of 1.6-1990 0.6 (revised
    from earlier 1.2)-2000

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