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Redistricting in CA and OH

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Title: Redistricting in CA and OH


1
Redistricting in CA and OH
  • Summary of Findings from Research Among Voters in
    Ohio and California

2
Methodology
3
Survey Methodology
  • Lake Research Partners designed and administered
    this survey that was conducted by telephone using
    professional interviewers between November 8 and
    November 10, 2005. The survey reached a total of
    600 registered voters in Ohio who indicated that
    they voted in the 2005 election and 800
    registered voters in California who indicated
    that they voted in the 2005 election.
  •  
  • Telephone numbers for the sample were drawn
    randomly from a statewide voter file screening
    for voters likely to turn out in November 2005.
    The data were weighted by party, age, race, and
    the actual voting results.
  •  
  • The margin of error for the Ohio survey is /- 4
    and for the California survey is /- 3.5 .

4
Key Findings
5
In both states
  • Voters support the underlying principles of
    redistricting reform.
  • Both redistricting initiatives failed for
    different reasons due to each states unique
    political dynamics.
  • Both initiatives were viewed as partisanthere
    was a huge partisan split in the vote.
  • A key to both losses was the inability to
    convince independents.

6
In California
  • Efforts to grab voters attention did work,
    nearly half of No voters support redistricting
    reform in principle.
  • Two-thirds of California voters think the
    redistricting system needs to be changed.
  • The effort lost support when specific weak
    components were picked apart and redistricting
    was connected to an unpopular Governor and his
    other proposed initiatives.

7
In Ohio
  • In contrast to California, Ohio voters were not
    engagedthey did not see the need for this reform
    relative to other priorities. Only the most
    liberal Democrats supported.
  • Voters got far less information on this
    initiative than in Californiamore said they got
    not enough than said they got too much.
  • To the extent they did hear about it, they
    perceived the whole effort to be focused on
    politics rather than their priorities.
  • Voters in Ohio are also cautious about
    initiatives which makes it easier to move voters
    to No in the end.

8
In both states
  • Voters did not see redistricting as a top
    priority. They do not see a connection to their
    daily lives.
  • Voters do not easily make the connection from
    their frustrations with government and politics
    to the solution of redistricting.
  • Voters do not tend to see redistricting reform as
    a solution to corruption. However, they can (and
    many do) see it as improving fairness and
    accountability.

9
Moving forward
  • The broad support for core principles of
    redistricting reform indicates that successful
    reform is possible. However, the dynamics of the
    initiative process in these two states were
    detrimental in 2005.
  • Raising the saliency of redistricting reform is a
    critical and very challenging task. In
    California, thanks to a well-funded effort and a
    celebrity governor, most voters at least came to
    understand what the problem is.
  • However, convincing voters to support a
    particular reform scheme is yet another hurdle.
    A determined opposition can and will poke holes
    in any plan because it tends to be complicated.
  • The strongest themes speak to the conflict of
    interest of politician drawing lines, voters
    should choose their representatives instead of
    being chosen, and lines should keep communities
    together.

10
Keys to future success
  • To succeed, future reform efforts must
  • Build on shared values, such as the belief that
    voters should choose their representatives rather
    than politicians choosing their voters,
  • Raise the saliency of reform as the key to making
    politicians accountable and government responsive
    to the people,
  • Have a well-funded, properly targeted
    communications plan,
  • Test carefully for weaknesses and potential
    attacks on the specifics of the reform plan, and
    develop effective responses to those attacks,
  • Be perceived as a grassroots, non-partisan reform
    effort rather than a partisan power-grab,
  • Be aimed at goals that voters share, such as
    accountability, fair elections, and keeping
    communities together,
  • Use independent validators including having the
    League of Women Voters visibly on board.

11
Context Voters in Ohio and California are
feeling negative about their state and state
government.
12
By a 2 to 1 margin, voters in Ohio are solidly
pessimistic about the direction of their state.
Do you think things in Ohio are generally moving
in the right direction or have they gotten off on
the wrong track?
13
Voters in California are even more pessimistic
about the direction of their state.
Do you think things in California are generally
moving in the right direction or have they gotten
off on the wrong track?
14
California and Ohio voters are feeling
distrustful of the federal government.
Ohio
California
People have different ideas about the
government in Washington. How much of the time
do you think you can trust the government in
Washington today to do what is rightjust about
always, most of the time, or only some of the
time?
Denotes split sample
15
State government fares even worse particularly in
California.
Ohio
California
People have different ideas about the state
government. How much of the time do you think
you can trust the government in Ohio/California
today to do what is rightjust about always, most
of the time, or only some of the time?
Denotes split sample
16
The 2005 Election California voters were
relatively more enthusiastic and informed about
redistricting reform than Ohio voters.
17
Enthusiasm for ballot initiatives did not drive
Ohio voters to the polls.
37
  • Thinking about Tuesdays election, how much did
    your support or opposition to ballot initiatives
    or proposition questions in this election
    motivate you to vote? Was it ROTATE _ extremely
    motivating, _very motivating, _somewhat
    motivating, _only a little motivating, or _not at
    all motivating?

18
However, voters in California were very motivated
by ballot initiatives.
67
  • Thinking about Tuesdays election, how much did
    your support or opposition to ballot initiatives
    or proposition questions in this election
    motivate you to vote? Was it ROTATE _ extremely
    motivating, _very motivating, _somewhat
    motivating, _only a little motivating, or _not at
    all motivating?

19
Twice as many Ohio voters felt they didnt have
enough information compared to Californians.
Thinking about the ballot initiatives in this
election. Overall, thinking about everything you
heard and read, would you say you saw or received
TOO MUCH information about these initiatives, NOT
ENOUGH information, or about the RIGHT AMOUNT?
20
Knowing who backs or opposes an initiative is
important to voters, even more intensely so for
Californians.
California
Ohio
Some voters say it is helpful to know who is FOR
or AGAINST a ballot initiative. How about you?
As a voter, is it VERY helpful to know this,
SOMEWHAT helpful, A LITTLE helpful, or NOT AT ALL
helpful?
21
Awareness of the redistricting initiative was
significantly higher in California.
Ohio
California
From what you remember, do you know if there was
an initiative on the ballot designed to reform
the way legislative and Congressional district
lines are drawn in California/Ohio?
22
The Redistricting Ballot The initiatives lost in
both states, partly due to lack of support from
independents.
23
Issue 4 was rejected by Ohio voters.
-40
Now I would like to ask you about one of the
measures that was on the ballot in Ohio. State
Issue 4 asked voters if the State Constitution
should be amended to reform Ohio's election
system by creating a five-member Ohio Independent
Redistricting Commission to draw the geographic
boundaries that determine who will represent you
in Congress and the State Legislature. Did you
vote _Yes, in favor of State Issue 4 or _No,
against State Issue 4, OR did you not vote on
this measure?
24
Democrats were split and the initiative lost
heavily among independent voters. Republicans
were solidly opposed.
Democrats Independents
Republicans
-76
-2
-46
25
Turning out infrequent voters would not have
helped Issue 4. Infrequent voters were even more
opposed.
Frequent Voters Infrequent
Voters
-38
-56
Note Smaller sample size for infrequent voters.
26
Liberal Democrats drove the Yes vote.
Lib. Dems Mod./Con. Dems
Lib./Mod. Reps Con. Rep
27
Voters in Ohio were mostly unsure of who was
behind Issue 4, but most likely to mention the
Democratic Party and like-minded interest groups.
29
17
9
9
8
7
6
5
Who do you think was MOST in favor of this
initiative on redistricting. Was it..
28
California voters rejected Prop. 77.
-20
Now I would like to ask you about one of the
measures that was on the ballot in California.
Proposition 77, asked voters if the State
Constitutions process for redistricting
Californias senate, assembly, congressional, and
Board of Equalization districts should be
amended. It requires a three-member panel of
retired judges selected by legislative leaders.
Did you vote _Yes, in favor of Proposition 77or
_No, against Proposition 77, OR did you not vote
on this measure?
29
In California it was Democrats solidly against
with Independents more split. Prop. 77 got strong
support from Republicans.
Democrats Independents
Republicans
-80
42
-12
30
Californians saw Gov. Schwarzenegger and the
Republican Party as in favor of redistricting,
but many also mention labor unions. Very few
mention citizen reform groups.
38
23
17
9
4
3
3
2
Who do you think was MOST in favor of this
initiative on redistricting. Was it..
31
Three quarters of Ohio voters decided their vote
on redistricting in the last few weeks of the
campaign.
7
15
35
19
14
7
About how long ago did you decide how you would
vote on Issue 4 -- more than two months ago,
within the past two months, within the past few
weeks, within the past week, within the past two
or three days, or on Election Day?
32
In contrast, half of California voters decided
two months or more out.
24
25
30
12
4
4
About how long ago did you decide how you would
vote on Proposition 77 -- more than two months
ago, within the past two months, within the past
few weeks, within the past week, within the past
two or three days, or on Election Day?
33
Late deciders in both states overwhelmingly
opposed redistricting.
VOTERS WHO DECIDED IN THE LAST WEEK ONLY
34
The Other Initiatives The initiative agendas
failed in both states.
35
Other Ohio initiatives tested
  • State Issue 2, asked voters if the State
    Constitution should be amended to permit voters
    to cast ballots by mail or in person at an
    appropriate county board of elections up to 35
    days before an election without stating a reason
    for voting early.
  • State Issue 3 asked voters if the State
    Constitution should be amended to limit campaign
    contributions from individuals to 2,000 to
    statewide candidates and 1,000 to legislative
    candidates. The current limit is 10,000 per
    person. The amendment would also ban political
    contributions from corporations.  
  • State Issue 5 asked voters if the State
    Constitution should be amended to change the way
    elections are administered in Ohio, by creating a
    bi-partisan State Board of Elections Supervisors
    to oversee elections and appoint an independent
    state director of elections.

36
Voters rejected the Ohio reforms across the
board.
37
Being on board with redistricting reform was
linked to supporting the other initiatives.
YES ON ISSUE 4 VOTERS ONLY
38
Other California initiatives tested
  • Proposition 73 prohibits abortion for an
    unemancipated minor until 48 hours after the
    physician notifies the minors parent or
    guardian, except in a medical emergency or with
    parental waiver.
  • Proposition 74 increases the probationary period
    for public school teachers from two years to five
    years. and modifies the process by which school
    boards can dismiss a teaching employee who
    receives two consecutive unsatisfactory
    performance evaluations.
  • Proposition 75 prohibits using public employee
    union dues for political contributions without
    individual employees' prior consent.
  • Proposition 76 limits state spending to the prior
    years level plus three previous years average
    revenue growth. It changes state minimum school
    funding requirements under Proposition 98. It
    permits the governor, under specified
    circumstances, to reduce budget appropriations of
    the governors choosing.

39
Voters in California rejected all the initiatives
on the ballot.
40
As in Ohio, supporters of the redistricting
initiative supported the other propositions.
YES ON PROP. 77 VOTERS ONLY
41
Reasons for the vote With the vote
underperforming how voters feel about
redistricting, other factors led to its defeat.
42
Nearly half of Ohio voters considered the reform
as part of a package. Voters in California did
not.
Some voters in Ohio considered State Issue 4 as
part of a package that included State Issues 2,
3, and 5 and voted for or against the whole
package. How about you? Did you consider these
measures as a package and voted the same on all
of them?
Some voters in California considered Proposition
77 as part of a package supported by Governor
Schwarzenegger and voted for or against the whole
package. How about you? Did you consider the
propositions supported by the Governor as a
package and vote the same on all of them?
43
Nearly half of the No voters in California say
they support redistricting reform, but did not
want to vote with the Governor.
NO VOTERS ONLY
Ohio
California
Do you agree or disagree with this statement, I
support redistricting reform but I did not want
to vote with the Democrats in Ohio.
Do you agree or disagree with this statement, I
support redistricting reform but I did not want
to vote with the Governor in California.
44
In California, a majority of voters support
reform in principle. In Ohio they do not.
Do you agree or disagree with this statement, I
support redistricting reform but I did not want
to vote with the Democrats in Ohio/ with the
Governor in California.
45
Perceptions of Redistricting in California and
Ohio Californians show more concern for
redistricting.
46
Just 30 of Ohio voters ranked redistricting high
on their list of issues.
30
  • Out of all the initiatives and propositions on
    the ballot in this election, was Issue 4
    regarding the redistricting process, the SINGLE
    most important issue on the ballot to you
    personally, one of the top TWO or THREE most
    important to you, just somewhat important, a
    little important, or not very important at all to
    you?

47
Redistricting did not rank high across partisan
groups in Ohio.
  • Out of all the initiatives and propositions on
    the ballot in this election, was Issue 4
    regarding the redistricting process, the SINGLE
    most important issue on the ballot to you
    personally, one of the top TWO or THREE most
    important to you, just somewhat important, a
    little important, or not very important at all to
    you?

48
Redistricting was more salient to California
voters.
45
  • Out of all the initiatives and propositions on
    the ballot in this election, was Proposition 77
    regarding the redistricting process, the SINGLE
    most important issue on the ballot to you
    personally, one of the top TWO or THREE most
    important to you, just somewhat important, a
    little important, or not very important at all to
    you?

49
In California, Republicans put a high priority on
redistricting reform.
50
While California voters are more intensely
dissatisfied with the status quo on
redistricting, a majority in both states say
changes are needed.
66
53
Ohio
California
Do you think the way the governor and
legislature go about drawing legislative district
lines in Ohio/California is in need of major
changes, some changes, minor changes, or is it
fine the way it is?
51
Beliefs and Themes Despite their vote, Ohio and
California are onboard with reform in principle.
52
Voters in both states have conflicted views on
the initiative process. They like having a say,
but worry about complexity and making things
worse.
Agree
93
94
We can end up making things worse if voters do
not have enough information on complicated reform
initiatives or ballot measures.
89
90
-darker colors show intensity asked of half the
sample
Ohio is green California is purple
Now I am going to read you some statements and I
want you to tell me if you agree or disagree with
each statement. If agree/disagree ask Is that
strongly or not so strongly?
53
Voters in both states firmly agree with the
underlying principles of redistricting reform.
Agree
70
It is a conflict of interest for the politicians
in the state legislature to draw their own
district lines that determine who elects them.
78
75
We need an election system where voters choose
their representatives, instead of a rigged,
gerrymandered system where politicians choose
their voters.
77
82
80
Ohio is green California is purple
-darker colors show intensity
Now I am going to read you some statements and I
want you to tell me if you agree or disagree with
each statement. If agree/disagree ask Is that
strongly or not so strongly?
54
Voters have a difficult time connecting
redistricting to their lives. Populist
arguments against reform resonated even more
strongly in Ohio.
Agree
68
When people talk about reforming government, they
never show how it will make things better for
people like me.
57
Changing the way elections are run does nothing
to help families struggling to make ends meet in
Ohio/California
62
55
So-called government reforms usually lead to
taxpayers footing the bill for a new government
bureaucracy.
71
61
Ohio is green California is purple
-darker colors show intensity
Now I am going to read you some statements and I
want you to tell me if you agree or disagree with
each statement. If agree/disagree ask Is that
strongly or not so strongly?
55
Voters did not see redistricting as addressing
corruption. More than a quarter of voters in Ohio
believed Issue 4 would increase it.
In Ohio, those most likely to think corruption
would increase are strong Reps., Rep. Men, and
conservatives.
In CA, those most likely to think corruption
would increase are Dems, Liberals, and Hispanics.
Ohio
California
Regardless of how you voted, do you think Issue
4/Prop. 77 will INCREASE corruption in state
government or DECREASE corruption in state
government?
56
The theme of increasing competition was more
resonant in California. Still a plurality of
voters saw no difference or a negative impact on
competition.
47
57
Regardless of how you voted, do you think Issue 4
will INCREASE competition in state legislative
and Congressional elections or DECREASE
competition in state legislative and
Congressional elections ?
57
Yes and No voters in Ohio drew on similar sources
of information - coverage in newspapers, radio,
and TV.
There are many different ways that voters get
information during election campaigns. I am
going to read you some different sources of
information for voters. For each one, please
tell me how important a source of information
that was for YOU in deciding how to vote on Issue
4 regarding redistricting very important,
somewhat important, not very important, or not at
all important
58
No voters relied more on newspaper coverage in
California. Late deciders relied on TV ads.
There are many different ways that voters get
information during election campaigns. I am
going to read you some different sources of
information for voters. For each one, please
tell me how important a source of information
that was for YOU in deciding how to vote on
Proposition 77 regarding redistricting very
important, somewhat important, not very
important, or not at all important
59
In Ohio, the LWV is the most trusted information
source, especially for Yes voters. No voters
did not strongly trust anyone.
Please tell me whether you would give the views
of that person or organization a GREAT DEAL of
weight, SOME weight, NOT MUCH weight, or no
weight AT ALL on the subject of the redistricting
initiative
60
Teachers were a strong voice for No voters in
California. They also trust the LWV.
Please tell me whether you would give the views
of that person or organization a GREAT DEAL of
weight, SOME weight, NOT MUCH weight, or no
weight AT ALL on the subject of the redistricting
initiative
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