Environmentally Induced Population Displacements

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Environmentally Induced Population Displacements

• CARE Population Resource Center Briefings
• Disaster Displacement The Human Face of
  Climate Change

• Susana B. Adamo
• Alexander de Sherbinin
• Center for International Earth Science
  Information Network (CIESIN)
• The Earth Institute at Columbia University

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Outline

• Definitions
• Overview of research on environmentally induced
  migration
• How environmental factors affect population
  mobility
• Types of population mobility
• Selected research results
• Climate change events with potential consequences
  for migration
• Sea-level rise
• Change temperature and precipitation
• Extreme events
• Potential indirect impacts of mitigation and
  adaptation on migration
• Current estimates of climate change induced
  displacements
• Conclusions and research needs

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Definitions

Refugees The 1951 Convention relating to the
Status of Refugees defines a refugee as a person
who owing to a well-founded fear of being
persecuted for reasons of race, religion,
nationality, membership of a particular social
group or political opinion, is outside the
country of his nationality and is unable, or,
owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail himself
of the protection of that country (UNHCR, RPG and
IOM 1996). Internally Displaced Persons Persons
or group of persons who have been forced to flee
or to leave their homes or places of habitual
residence, in particular, as a result of, or in
order to avoid the effects of, armed conflict,
internal strife, systematic violations of human
rights, or natural or man-made disasters, and who
have not crossed an internationally recognized
State border (OCHA 2004). Environmental migrants
Persons or group of persons who, for compelling
reasons of sudden or progressive changes in the
environment that adversely affect their lives or
living conditions, are obliged to leave their
habitual homes, or choose to do so, either
temporarily or permanently, and who move either
within their country or abroad (IOM 2007).
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How do environmental factors affect migration
decisions?
Multiplicity and Complexity
Environmental Hazards
Social Vulnerability
(Location households socio-demographic
characteristics livelihoods, their components
and diversity individual characteristics like
gender and age poverty status)
RISK
(Location, timing, duration and intensity of
events)
FEEDBACKS
Governmental responses, institutional capacity
Past experience with migration as a risk
reduction strategy
Availability of other types of responses
Perceptions and experiences of environmental
hardship
Population mobility (displacement, permanent and
circular migration, commuting, etc.) as
demographic response
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Types of Mobility

• The movements mostly internal, some
  international short term, short distance,
  circular permanent displacement
• The people who is impacted and who is likely to
  leave?
• Some changes in selectivity flows can differ
  from normal flows

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Selected Research Results
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Selected Research Results (2)
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Selected research results (3)
Environmental Change and Forced Migration
Scenarios (EACH-FOR Project)

• PRELIMINARY FINDINGS FROM THE 22 CASE STUDIES
• Land tenure matters
• Disasters, development and slow-paced
  environmental change are three factors that
  contribute to environmentally induced migration.
• Migration may be a climate change adaptation
  strategy but the worst-off people might not have
  the resources to move and may not move very far
  (likely not internationally)
• Environmental stressors in combination with lack
  of sufficient aid or capability to maintain or
  establish alternative livelihood options can lead
  to migration
• Environmental stressors are increasingly
  prompting governments in developing countries to
  plan for the relocation and resettlement of
  affected and vulnerable populations.
• A modeling exercise (global scale) suggests that
  after the established push-pull factors are
  accounted for in migration decisions,
  environmental factors have a statistically
  significant relationship with migration,
  suggesting a small but significant environmental
  signal in migration

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Climate change events
Long-Term Migration Response
Speed of Event

• Sea level rise
• Rising average sea level
• Salt water intrusion in aquifers
• Water availability
• Increasing
• Decreasing
• Extreme weather events
• Droughts
• Heat waves
• Violent Storms
• Floods

Slow Onset Fast onset
Higher Certainty Lower Certainty
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Sea Level Rise
Source Balk, D., G. McGranahan, and B. Anderson.
2006. Population and Land Area in Distribution in
Urban Coastal Zones A Systematic Assessment.
Earth System Science Partnership Open Science
Meeting, Nov 2006, Beijing.
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Changes in Runoff
By 2015, there will be gt405 million people in
regions where runoff is projected to decline by
more than 20 by 2080
Source Adamo and de Sherbinin (forthcoming). The
impact of climate change on the spatial
distribution of populations and migration.
Proceedings of the Expert Group Meeting on
Migration, UN Population Division, January 2008.
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Natural Hazards (1)
Are drought and environmental conditions behind
increased migration from West Africa to Europe,
or are there other factors anemic economic
growth, lack of opportunities, the influence of
returning migrants, or images of the good life
on TV?
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Natural Hazards (2)
Hazard risk represents a cumulative score based
on risk of cyclones, flooding, landslides and
drought. Source de Sherbinin, A., A. Schiller,
and A. Pulsipher (2007). The vulnerability of
global cities to climate hazards. Environment
Urbanization. 19(1) 39-64.
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Climate Change Mitigation Adaptation Impacts

• Biofuel plantations
• Forest plantations
• Hydroelectric power facilities
• Water transfer schemes
• Sea wall construction

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Conflict as a Cause of Migration
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Estimated Magnitudes of Displacement
The range is from 50 million to 634 million -
but often we have no idea how these numbers were
developed!
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Conceptual Model Flooding Migration
Source Perch-Nielsen, S.L., M.B. Bättig, and D.
Imboden. (2008) Exploring the link between
climate change and migration. Climatic Change,
Vol. 91375393.
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Conclusions Further Research

• There is still a lack of consensus/clarity on
• Definitional issues (though its getting better)
• Exactly how different climate change impacts will
  affect different types of population mobility
• Magnitudes of population displacements
• The research community is rapidly intensifying
  its efforts
• The linkages among climate change, development,
  security, and migration are complex and require
  careful inquiry
• Over-simplifications can lead to misguided policy
  responses