Agenda -- C/AFT Core Team Meeting

1
Agenda -- C/AFT Core Team Meeting

• 830 Welcome Russ
• 900 Summary of C/AFT Accomplishments
• ATSP FG, Phase 3
• European Data Link Final Report
• ATSP Phases 1 2, Navigation, Surveillance, US
  Data Link
• 1000 Todays Airspace Management Issues Russ
  / Dave J.
• 1030 Proposal -- C/AFT Future Russ/Dave
• Operations Analysis FG
• Financial Performance FG
• Integrated Solutions FG
• 1130 Proposed Deliverables / Influence
• 1200 Lunch
• 100 Group Discussion of Proposal
• 230 Proposed Work Breakdown, Schedule,
  Commitments
• 430 Next Steps

2
Proposal C/AFT Future
3
Value of C/AFT to Airlines

• FAA modernization is no more sensitive to
  airlines than they are to other stakeholders.
• Our ability to compete with each other is based
  on a system that has adequate infrastructure to
  support competition
• We need to represent current situation to the
  traveling public, Congress, FAA -- impact
  modernization

4
Goals for Airspace Modernization

• Airspace system must provide capacity for air
  carriers to compete
• Balance of asset utilization and revenue
• System must allow enough control by air carriers
  so that capacity can be used in innovative ways
• Flexibility innovation
• Control predictability. Block times increase
  due to variance, if we can reduce variance we can
  reduce block time, even if actuals dont change.
• Provide perspective of traveling public.
• System safety
• System performance (arriving on-time)
• Ticket cost

5
Timeframe of C/AFT Influence

• Planning horizon is 15 years
• Action horizon is mid-term
• Near-Term, 2002 - 2003
• Develop common vision between airlines and Air
  Traffic Service Providers
• evaluate hooks into future
• Mid-Term, 2003-2005
• Air Traffic Service Provider should provide an
  environment that defines available capacity and
  allows airlines to determine how they utilize it.
  
• Airlines can balance flexibility and
  predictability
• Define needs by characteristics (eg
  over-capacity).
• What are characteristics of capacity-burdened
  areas.
• Define on business characteristics rather than
  airspace characteristics.
• Far-Term, 2005 - beyond
• TBD

6
Original C/AFT Terms of Reference (September 30,
1997)

• C/AFT is a forum which will gather economic,
  technical, and risk data to develop methodologies
  for use by airlines, air traffic service
  providers, government agencies, and industry in
  determining the economic-driven strategy for
  CNS/ATM deployment. This strategy should focus
  on quantifying the problems and solutions
  associated with existing industry plans, and
  developing consensus to facilitate implementation
  of these enhancements. Consensus will be used to
  promote harmonization of the regional plans.
  C/AFT will help guide CNS/ATM deployment, by
  providing feedback through the following
  activities

7
C/AFT Terms of Reference, continued

• Establish Problem
• Frame the Problem
• Collect, compare, and validate existing analyses
  and modeling efforts.
• Establish common performance baseline metrics for
  quantifying performance.
• Evaluate Solutions
• Collect existing proposed solutions
• Use common performance metrics to evaluate
  proposed solutions
• Where deficiencies in proposed solutions are
  found, identify potential alternatives
• Develop recommendations to existing industry
  groups
• Develop Consensus to Facilitate Implementation
• Develop consensus on the validity and magnitude
  of problems
• Develop consensus on the validity and priorities
  of proposed solutions
• Provide economic guidance on operational and
  political implementation issues.

8
Proposal Three New Focus Groups

• The C/AFT Focus Groups will develop and implement
  a methodology for measuring the airspace
  management problems, to prioritize their impact
  on airline operations and to assess the business
  cases of potential air traffic system
  improvements to resolve these problems. The task
  will be accomplished using data at an airline
  industry level and the results will be used to
  influence ATC modernization priorities in the
  mid-term (2003 - 2005) and beyond.
• Operations Analysis Focus Group
• Identify, size, and prioritize problems
• Identify and classify airspace constraining
  events, including dynamic system constraints and
  operationally challenged days
• Integrated Solutions Focus Group
• Evaluate integrated solutions and develop
  recommendations for prioritized solutions
  problems identified by OAFG.
• Financial Performance Focus Group
• Develop aggregate business case taking into
  consideration airline aircraft utilization/investm
  ent and ATC infrastructure cost.

9
Mapping of Terms of Reference to each C/AFT
Focus Group

• Operations Analysis Focus Group
• Frame the Problem
• Collect, compare, and validate existing analyses
  and modeling efforts.
• Establish common performance baseline metrics for
  quantifying performance.
• Develop consensus on the validity and magnitude
  of problems
• Integrated Solutions Focus Group
• Collect existing proposed solutions
• Use common performance metrics to evaluate
  proposed solutions
• Where deficiencies in proposed solutions are
  found, identify potential alternatives
• Develop consensus on the validity and priorities
  of proposed solutions
• Develop recommendations to existing industry
  groups
• Financial Performance Focus Group
• Provide economic guidance on operational and
  political implementation issues

10
Proposed Methodology

• Evaluate markets with highest value
• Establish baseline performance requirements
• Develop traffic growth estimates
• Determine operational factors on high-value
  markets
• Use data to determine effects of dynamic
  constraints (e.g. weather) on baseline
• Initial focuse on highest value makets in
  Domestic U.S gt area east of ORD
• It is where airlines are most impacted by delay.
• In this area demand and capacity are either very
  close together or demand exceeds capacity.
• Areas of high traffic volumes ORD, DTW, CLE,
  PIT, BOS, NYC/EWR, PHL, IAD/BWI.
• Problems
• Cleveland center with traffic going to/from NE
  corridor and ORD with flights going in from all
  directions.
• ORD is terminal problem.
• CLE, PIT tend to be en-route (CLE has miles in
  trail restrictions because of crossing traffic).

11
Guidelines for defining high-value market

• A high growth market creates need to improve the
  air traffic system
• High value markets require more air traffic
  system improvements
• Market may be city pair or may be regional flow
• current market vs. projected market demand?
• Concentrate on overlap market frequency and
  growth balance each other
• flows will be dynamic in nature
• air service and demand will grow

12
December 2000 Deliverables (Russ Chew
presentation to FFSC)

• Process Strawman for a key market
• Operations Analysis
• value of market (estimate of RPMs)
• Define systemperformance constraints
• Differentiate by en-route, terminal, and airport
• Recommend Integrated Solutions
• identify candidate operational enahancements
• Develop Aggregate Business Case
• Finalize schedule for follow-on activities

13
Required Resources

• Operations Analysis FG
• airline market analysis expertise
• airline operations analysts
• Integrated Solutions FG
• ATC and operational experts
• Financial Performance FG
• ATC and airline financial experts

14
Next Steps

• Russ to take this proposal to ATA steering
  committee next week (Sept 7), get commitment for
  resources
• Next meeting -- Operations Analysis FG
• Goals
• Choose first high value market to evaluate (may
  be regional flow)
• Define process for determining constraints in
  this market
• Identify data requirements
• Set up telecons for future work
• Set up meeting for Integrated Solution FG (Dave
  Jones / Brian Harkness chairs)
• September 13 - 14th (1 1/2 days)
• Location Chicago
• Participants OA People Rose Hsu, United?,
  Boeing,
• Data
• LMI will provide market listing
• MITRE will provide Future Demand Generator data
• OAs will provide recommendations for initial
  high value market

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Next Steps, continued

• Integrated Solutions Focus Group
• Meeting 1
• Date October 5, 6 or October 12, 13 (1 1/2
  days)
• Location Seattle
• Meeting 2
• Week of November 13th
• Location Seattle
• Core Group Meeting
• 29/30 November -- Kathleen to coordinate with
  Russ
• Location DFW

16
People

• Operations Analysis FG
• Rose Hsu will chair
• ?UAL
• Chris Scofield NASA will provide data
• LMI / MITRE will provide data for first meeting
• Integrated Solutions FG
• Dave Jones and Brian Harkness will chair
• AAL will provide Flight Ops Technical expertise
  (David Strand or Brent Blackwell?)
• ?UAL
• ??FAA to provide ATC people
• FAA. Art Politano will participate
• NASA. Chris Scofield may provide data