Australia, Malaysia and the coming politics of climate change MalaysiaAustralia Dialogue on Asian Fu - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Loading...

PPT – Australia, Malaysia and the coming politics of climate change MalaysiaAustralia Dialogue on Asian Fu PowerPoint presentation | free to view - id: ac9c4-OGIxM



Loading


The Adobe Flash plugin is needed to view this content

Get the plugin now

View by Category
About This Presentation
Title:

Australia, Malaysia and the coming politics of climate change MalaysiaAustralia Dialogue on Asian Fu

Description:

... of Global Climate Change, Center for a New American Security, November 2007 ... global system imperatives will penetrate and shape domestic national politics ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

Number of Views:69
Avg rating:3.0/5.0
Slides: 26
Provided by: xxx963
Category:

less

Write a Comment
User Comments (0)
Transcript and Presenter's Notes

Title: Australia, Malaysia and the coming politics of climate change MalaysiaAustralia Dialogue on Asian Fu


1
Australia, Malaysia and the coming politics of
climate change Malaysia-Australia Dialogue on
Asian Futures, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 12-16
August 2009
  • Richard Tanter
  • Nautilus Institute
  • rtanter_at_nautilus.org

2
Outline
  • What policy outcomes ought we to be aiming for?
  • Reminder Mitigation and adaptation
  • Climate change as a case of the species of
    global problems
  • Climate change as a security problem
  • Global politics in a carbon-constrained world
  • REDD as a paradigm of destructive interdependence
  • Psycho-social and problem definition frames for
    conflict and cooperation
  • Requirements for an adequate framework

3
1. What outcomes should we - government and civil
society - be aiming for?
  • Near-term consequences non-lethal
  • Adequate recognition of complexity and understood
    consequences
  • Based on knowledge of complexity adequate to
    understanding both the problems and their
    solutions
  • Mitigating rather than exacerbating play of
    fantasies and their political manipulation
  • Outcomes based on shared character of problems
    and necessary cooperation for just anf effective
    solution

4
2. Characteristics of mitigation and adaptation
(Bosello et al, 2007)

5
3. Climate change as a case of the species of
global problems
  • Characteristics of global problems
  • Effects are potentially universal
  • Effects are cascading
  • Complex/non-linear
  • Highly inter-related
  • Causes and effects may be separated by time and
    geography
  • Solutions/strategies may be separated
  • Knowledge ranges from open knowledge to
    classified information
  • Knowledge is multi-disciplinary/inter-disciplinary
  • Solutions must be multiple, interlinked, and
    close to simultaneous to avoid destructive
    feedback

6
Global problems - one list Jean-Francois
Rischard, High Noon 20 Global Problems, 20 Years
to Solve Them
  • Sharing our Planet Issues involving the global
    commons
  • Sharing our humanity Issues whose size and
    urgency requires a global commitment
  • Sharing our rulebook Issues needing a global
    regulatory approach

7
4. Climate change as a security issue
  • Booming field
  • different players/interests/definitions of
    security
  • almost all deeply flawed
  • Three main groups
  • Informed enthusiasts
  • Academic sceptics
  • (gtgtAcademic adaptation approaches as compromise)
  • Systems approaches
  • Comprehensive list of studies, Nautilus
    Institute
  • Climate change and security - analysis, Nautilus
    Institute
  • http//www.globalcollab.org/Nautilus/australia/ref
    raming/cc-security/cc-sec-policy/

8
Informed enthusiasts
  • Key official document
  • Energy, Security and Climate - Security Council
    open debate, April 2007 especially the UK
    concept paper.
  • Best to date
  • The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and
    National Security Implications of Global Climate
    Change, Center for a New American Security,
    November 2007

9
Age of Transitions, CSIS, 2007 - three plausible
climate scenarios
  • Lead authors now Obama senior White House, NSC,
    Defense and CIA, plus climate specialists.
  • Severe scenario motif massive non-linear
    events in the global environment give rise to
    massive non-linear societal events.
  • Looking for security consequences of plausible
    futures.
  • Most to date based on probable futures
  • in fact levels of uncertainty in CC predictions
    are high, and have turned out to be conservative

10
Problems with the enthusiasts
  • Sentence structure too many
  • could/may/possibly/might lead to …
  • imagine if …
  • i.e. weak modelling of CC-security impact
    relationships
  • Suspicion that political agenda drives demand for
    definition of the field
  • Still limited models of indirect and adaptation
    consequences.

11
Academic sceptics
  • Follows from 1990s critiques of environmental
    security
  • Statistically-based evidence not present
  • Causal chains too long excluding nothing
  • Central criticisms of enthusiasts
  • based on speculation and questionable sources
  • difficult to substantiate given data
    constraints
  • focus on possible scenarios in the future, which
    are inherently difficult to test
  • Best of sceptics Barnett and Adger
  • Vulnerability varies with extent of dependence on
    natural resources and ecosystem services,
    sensitivity of those resources, and adaptive
    capacity
  • Environmental change does not undermine human
    security in isolation form a broad range of
    social factors

12
Best of the sceptics Jon Barnett/Neil Adger
  • shifted to institutional adaptation
    robustness/vulnerability focus, with conflict
    theory/human security emphasis
  • Vulnerability not identical with insecurity
  • Vulnerability varies with extent of dependence on
    natural resources and ecosystem services,
    sensitivity of those resources, and adaptive
    capacity
  • the more people are dependent on climate
    sensitive forms of natural capital, and the less
    they rely on economic or social forms of capital,
    the more at risk they are from CC
  • Environmental change does not undermine human
    security in isolation form a broad range of
    social factors

13
Problems with some of the sceptics
  • Reliance on past as baseline
  • There is no precedent in human history for a
    global disaster that affects whole societies in
    multiple ways at many different locations all at
    once. J.R. McNeill, Age of Transitions
  • Analytic approach seems to militate against
    holistic requirements
  • Conflict and security research models are not
    wide
  • To date not a lot of attention to complex
    interactions of CC with trade, economic
    structure, culture (religion), urban structure,
    public health
  • Adaptation as new conflict variable not yet on
    agenda
  • Purchase on vulnerabilities of advanced
    industrial systems?

14
5. Global politics in a carbon-constrained world
  • some assumptions - unless a climatic tipping
    point is reached early with visible
    socio-ecological major consequences
  • Technically efficacious mitigation efforts will
    be inadequate in our lifetime
  • dependent on spatial/national/class location,
    conscious, planned adaptation efforts will be
    inadequate and widely perceived as unjust
  • some adaptation processes will have highly
    negative consequences, with uneven degrees of
    local, or geographically or sectorally
    constrained vs universal impacts

15
Global politics in a carbon-constrained world
best parallel Cold War, but …
  • no historical precedents for carbon-constrained
    world
  • global bio-physical systemic driver, with lethal
    socio-ecological consequences differentially
    distributed
  • global system imperatives will penetrate and
    shape domestic national politics
  • cross-cutting formations of interest and
    resentment
  • reluctant and incipiently failing interdependence
  • more nuclear weapons and nuclear energy
  • carbon policing missions disposition to
    carbon-regime intervention
  • new version of the west vs the rest, but
    cross-cut by contested multipolarity

16
6. REDD politics as a paradigm of destructive
interdependence
  • REDD Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and
    Destructive forest practices
  • REDD Plus - Bali Action Plan
  • Policy approaches and positive incentives on
    issues relating to reducing emissions from
    deforestation and forest degradation in
    developing countries and the role of
    conservation, sustainable management of forests
    and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in
    developing countries.

17
  • basic model industrial/rich countries purchase
    carbon emission reduction credits by paying
    developing/tropical rainforest countries to avoid
    deforestation or plant/manage forests
  • to be established as global institution under
    UNFCC at Copenhagen? Market or fund?
  • already pilot schemes, aid projects, carbon
    credit trading, and widespread consequent crime
    and unrest
  • existing and planned rich country emissions
    reduction schemes highly dependent on huge REDD
    Plus plans

18
REDD problems
  • Some variation dependent on scheme structure
  • Cross-national institutional interdependence for
    viability of national carbon regimes
  • Criminal/fraud possibilities very high
  • Sub-prime carbon carbon derivatives markets
  • With best will, very hard to implement
  • Buyer country view failure of compliance on a
    massive scale, and exacerbation of existential
    threat
  • Seller country view imposition of ecological
    debt external exacerbation of social tensions
  • Carbon-complicance aid and intervention

19
7. Psycho-social and problem definition frames
for conflict and cooperation
  • Capacity for highly negative psycho-social
    dynamics re climate change impacts and
    responsibilities.
  • existential and intangible (?) character of
    threat parallel to Cold War structure of nuclear
    terrors
  • denial, projection and scapegoating central
    mechanisms
  • political utility and resource (Bush/Howard)
  • religious expressions
  • already in play first world and third world
    examples displaying root senses of threat
  • salient to enforcement of carbon regimes - and
    resistance

20
Mal-adaptation as a feedback element
  • treat mitigation an early, relatively
    straightforward, form of adaptation
  • Adaptation not necessarily positive
  • Mal-adaptation experiences
  • Perceptions and reality
  • blindspots
  • Will definitely feedback into system

21
Mal-adaptation possibility Australian-Southeast
Asia energy adaptation
  • SEA countries and Australia adapting to climate
    change by shifting nuclear energy issues
  • Indonesian, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia,
    Phillipines, nuclear power proposals
  • Australian uranium expansion waste import
    proposals uranium enrichment advocacy
  • last now justified by likely NE Asian and
    possible SEA nuclear proliferation
  • regional response to Australian arms spending and
    doctrine, now amplified by Australian nuclear
    developments.
  • Perfect vicious circle feedback system unless
    altered intentionally by rectification of
    perceptions and avoidance of maladaptive
    responses.

22
Reframing Australia Indonesia security relations
through shared global problem solving strategic
goals?
  • To document the impact of climate change on the
    two societies
  • to map the impact of climate change on the
    security relations between the two countries
  • to develop policy responses by both government
    and civil society in both societies and between
    them.
  • to develop a model of bilateral policy responses
    to shared global problems potentially applicable
    to other cases.

23
  • Against a background of recurring crises in
    Australias most sensitive security relationship,
    the aim is to explore security aspects of
    relations between Australia and Indonesia based
    on new communities of shared interests to face
    the challenges of emerging global problems faced
    by both societies.
  • The key hypothesis is that global problems
    manifest in the fabric of the two societies, and
    whose causes lie beyond their national systems,
    not only will generate deep security challenges
    but also new possibilities of cross-border
    communities of shared interest.
  • The secondary hypothesis is that this process
    will enhance the capacity to manage the difficult
    bilateral problems already evident by placing
    them in a context of larger security
    collaborations.

24
Layered frames for analysing bilateral security
impacts
  • bio-physical and social-ecological systems under
    consideration
  • historically formed relationship between the two
    societies and states
  • intentional collective efforts to address actual
    and expected climate change through mitigation of
    greenhouse gas generation and release, and
    adaptation to specific patterns of climate change

25
  • Reframing Australia-Indonesia security
  • http//www.globalcollab.org/Nautilus/australia/ref
    raming
  • Mapping Causal Complexity in Climate Change
    Impacts and Responses - Australia and Indonesia
  • http//www.globalcollab.org/Nautilus/australia/ref
    raming/cc-security/mapping/
  • Australia-Indonesia nuclear dynamics
  • http//www.globalcollab.org/Nautilus/australia/ref
    raming/aust-ind-nuclear
About PowerShow.com