Outflanked How Fredrik Reinfeldt succeeded to outsocial democrat the Social Democrats

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Outflanked!- How Fredrik Reinfeldt succeeded to
out-social democrat the Social Democrats

• By Peter Gustavsson

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The Swedish political system

• Proportional representation, with a 4 threshold
  to get into parliament
• Simultanous elections to all three levels
  local, regional and national. Strong local
  influence on how policies are implemented.

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Political parties and figures from the September
17th election

• Social Democrats, 34,99
• Left Party, 5,85
• Green Party, 5,24

• Moderates (Conservatives), 26,23
• Centre Party, 7,88
• Liberals, 7,54
• Christian Democrats, 6,59

Others Sweden Democrats 2,93, Feminist
Initiative 0,68, Pirate Party 0,63, Swedish
Pensioners Interest Party 0,52, June List
0,47, Health Care Party 0,21
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1932-76 Fourty-four years of Social Democratic
government

• The Peoples Home
• Universal welfare state Only the best is good
  enough for the people. Schools, hospitals, elder
  care, child care as well as social insurances
• Rehn-Meidner model Combine full employment with
  low inflation. Solidarity wages policy, active
  labour market policy, government regulating the
  level of demand.

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1976-90 The Swedish exception

• Right-wing government elected with full
  employment highest on its agenda. Constant
  governmental crisis 1976-82.
• Social Democratic government again from 1982.
  Sweden an exception to the European mass
  unemployment levels between 2 and 3 per cent.
• Adaption to neo liberal wave from 1985 -
  November revolution deregulating credits.
• Massive speculation on real estate and stocks
  causing economic bubble in the late 1980s.

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1990-91 War of the Roses

• 1990 Social Democratic government proposing
  crisis programme temporarily abolishing strikes
  unions protest. Left Party withdraws its
  parliamentary support for the government.
• New Social Democratic government, same direction.
  Inflation prioritized over unemployment, tax
  reform reducing taxes for the rich, joining the
  ERM, application to join the EU.
• Big electoral loss for Social Democrats right
  wing govt formed led by Carl Bildt in 1991.

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1991-94 ERM crisis and system change

• ERM disaster in November 1992.
• Three years of right wing government doubled
  state debt, tripled unemployment, quadrupled
  deficit.
• Privatisations, school vouchers, preparations for
  pension reform etc

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1994-98 Budget sanitation

• New Social Democrat government in 1994 Tax rises
  and massive cuts in welfare systems.
• Increasing protests on the amount of cuts and the
  need for an employment policy
• Peace between Social Democrats and unions in 1997
  declaration that open unemployment is to be
  reduced to 4 per cent in 2000.
• Proud, not satisfied, schools, hospitals,
  care
• Election in 1998 big setback for Social
  Democrats, but the Left Party took the votes and
  the left/green alliance could stay in power

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The price of high unemployment drop in party
membership

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1998-2002 Successful employment policy

• In 2001, the Social Democrats succeeded achieving
  4 per cent unemployment.
• 2002 election won on fighting Moderate demands on
  big tax cuts rather welfare than big tax cuts
  for the rich

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The post-ERM red-green majority
Source (Synovate) TEMO polls 1991-2002
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The road downwards

• September 14th 2003 Referendum on the euro
  hard internal split and Göran Persson is said to
  be bullying eurosceptics in his own party
• September 11th, 2003 Anna Lindh, presumed
  successor as leader, is murdered
• October 25th, 2003 Fredrik Reinfeldt is elected
  leader for the Moderates, setting a new course
  called the New Moderates or the new labour
  party (nya arbeiderpartiet)
• June 13th, 2004 Social Democrats loses the
  European elections to a new eurosceptic party,
  the June List
• Summer 2004 Göran Persson decides to hang on as
  leader, while already thinking of his future as
  owner of a big estate in the rural areas of his
  native county Sörmland

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The 2003-04 recession open unemployment figures
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The New Moderates I

• Acceptance for trade unions and collective
  bargaining
• Acceptance for publicly financed schools and
  hospitals
• Reduction in demand for tax cuts
• The soap as soon as you start to attack them,
  they slide away and change position

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The New Moderates II

• Pushing for cuts in social insurances
• Pushing for privatisations
• Pushing in EU for directives that weaken Swedish
  social model
• Presented as reformist rather than
  revolutionary as right wing policy has to be
  carried out by stealth

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Two years of election campaign, episode one

• August 30th, 2004 Alliance for Sweden is formed
  in Högfors by the leaders of the four right-wing
  parties
• September 2004 National television broadcast two
  programs on the Left Partys communist past and
  present, resulting in intensified infightings in
  the Party. Popular support plummits.
• Autumn 2004 Scandals in trade unions hurt govt
  trust
• December 26th, 2004 Tsunami in East Asia kills
  453 Swedes, govt blamed for slow response. A long
  lasting media campaign starts

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Two years of election campaign, episode two

• January 2005 Big storm destroying vast forest
  lands in southern Sweden.
• February-March 2005 Scandal in Social Democratic
  Youth expands, leading to chairs resignation
• May 2005 Social Democrat leader in Stockholm,
  Annika Billström, attacks party comrades publicly
  for conspiring against her. Two TV programs start
  the attacks on new feminist party
• August 2005 Youth congress compromise ends
  infighting in the Social Democrats
• November 2005 Social Democrat congress decides
  to change labour market policy and make full
  employment the number one priority

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Red-green majority broken
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Election debate I

• Social Democrats
• Good times for Sweden, good in international
  comparison
• The jobs are coming
• Let all benefit from this

• Moderates
• Social Democrats have governed for 12 years,
  theyre tired and out of visions
• Social Democrats are just hiding unemployment

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Election debate II

• Social Democrats
• They are the same old moderates
• They fight the unemployed, not unemployment

• Moderates
• Sweden need more jobs we want to make it worth
  the while to work instead of living on benefits

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Heard on the doorstep

• Im not against the Social Democrats, but I
  dislike Persson
• Social Democrats have left their ideals, youre
  doing right-wing policies. It doesnt matter how
  I vote
• There are so many unemployed, and you havent
  fixed that
• Youve been in power for 12 years, I think its
  time for a change

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The result

• Small majority 178 seats for the government,
  171 for the opposition.
• Good results in Social Democratic heartlands and
  in areas where we campaigned well.
• Fairly good results in Gothenburg and Malmö due
  to high confidence in local politicians and good
  local campaigns.
• Biggest losses in the capital. Without the
  capital, the Social Democrats would have won.

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Extreme right knocking on the door

• Sweden Democrats had 2,93, compared to 1,42
  last election.
• Seats in many local councils all over the
  country. Landskrona 22!
• Grow from unemployment and increasing social
  inequalities. As long as we dont have a strong
  policy against that, the will continue to grow.
• In the next election they will get into
  parliament unless we counter them effectively.

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Unemployment the main electoral liability

• Economic policies adapted when neo-liberalism was
  strong has kept unemployment on high levels
• The party lacked a clear vision for the future
• The movement and the government was involved in
  scandal after scandal
• Persson looked tired
• Persson was building a big mansion unpopular
  among voters (especially our core vote)

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Best Social Democrat wins

• Most Swedish elections are won by the Social
  Democratic Party.
• When Social Democrats lose, its most often
  because other parties are better at seeming to be
  Social Democrat
• In 1976, the Centre Party promised to stick to
  full employment and close down nuclear power
• In 1998, the Left Party acted as the safeguard of
  the welfare state to Social Democrat cuts
• Only one exception the 1991 election after a
  terrible War of the Roses

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Outflanked

• Social Democrats said that the jobs are coming,
  Moderates said that we need political measures to
  create jobs
• Social Democrats seemed tired and out of a
  vision, Moderates promised change.
• The New Labour message made voters think that
  the New Moderates was just a better form of
  Social Democrats. The voters who could afford the
  risk, dared voting for the opposition.

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Summary

• Both labour parties plummeted in electoral
  support at the same time the communicating
  vessels went out of function.
• Long time in power, problems renewing in
  government. Disappointment with results of right
  wing economic policies.
• The Moderates made a total political make-over
  and succeeded in sticking together with the rest
  of the right wing.

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One month later

• Social Democratic leader resigned election night
  and the leader of the Stockholm Social Democrats
  was sacked by an overwhelming majority
• We stood as New Moderates, we will govern as New
  Moderates
• but the honeymoon was short. New scandals every
  day two ministers have already resigned. The
  worst start for a government ever

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Three things we must change

• Re-build the party! Have gone from a million
  members to 140 000 in 15 years. Re-establish the
  connection to the citizens in their daily lives.
• Renewal! A 21st century vision that continue
  building on what made Social Democracy strong in
  the 20th century. The inequalities in the new
  service society. Investing in education to meet
  tomorrow. Facing gender inequalities with
  efficient policies. Anti-racist policies fighting
  injustices. Global challenges and opportunities.
  Climate change and the green peoples home.
  Modern leaders speaking modern language
• Reconsider our near past! This failure is closely
  related to failed economic policies. The party
  needs a new economic theory, that puts employment
  and human well-being at the centre.