When the Grid Goes Down Planning your nondisaster

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When the Grid Goes DownPlanning your
non-disaster

• Setting up services
• Communications
• ( quiz that follows )
• The opinions expressed herein are those solely of
  the presenter and do not necessarily represent
  the views of any organization or institution

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What is a Disaster?

• disaster   noun a calamitous event,
  especially one occurring suddenly and causing
  great loss of life, damage, or hardship.
  "DISASTER." Dictionary.com Unabridged (v 1.1).
  Random House, Inc.
• Blackout A specialized disaster with unique
  qualities based upon loss of power.
• A disaster is a disaster based on the impact to
  the affected.
• Its a VERY subjective call
• A Real Disaster typically swamps local or
  anticipated restoration capabilities
• An event may be a disaster to one party but
  not another
• A long blackout is a disaster for a meat packer
• But only a minor nit in a home with a generator /
  lanterns
• Its a non-event to groups camping out

• What do you need to make the next blackout or
  disaster a non-disaster for you?

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Quiz

• Who was the first recorded disaster / crisis
  manager in history? Why?

• Noah he built his boat before the flood

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Questions before the lights go out (or the
water rises or earth shakes)

• Length of blackout (or hurricane, or predictable
  disaster)
• What preparation is needed prior to the event
• What are we not preparing for
• Who do I need to communicate with and for how
  long
• How long can police communicate
• (aka, when does anarchy start, and what does my
  COOP Plan cover)
• What critical items require power through a
  blackout
• Continuous processes
• Grandma in ICU
• Frozen foods
• Most all communications (what about PSTN / POTS
  vs. IP phones)

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Sun Tzu, The Art of War says Know your enemy,
including Disasters ?

• No lights, chaos, lack of law order (free
  TVs in 2005)
• No / Low public communications you (try to)
  call for help
• No pumps to move water from low lying areas
• Telco, Hospitals critical infrastructure on
  temporary generators
• Some backup generators will not start, many will
  not last
• No pumps for gasoline, diesel, or water to water
  towers
• More difficult access to Fire, Police, EMS, if
  any
• No AC / Heat (Natural / LP Gas not typically
  affected (hint))
• Minor issues for the healthy adaptive become
  threats to others

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Historical blackout size vs. duration How long
will it last
of Homes affected 2KW/ home
5 M
500K
50K
5K
500
30 sec. 6 min. 1 Hr.
10 Hr. 4 Days 1
Mo.
Duration of Blackout
www.nerc.com
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Where do you get your power from?Where would you
rather be? What is the cost?
Rates from http//www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricit
y/epm/table5_6_b.html
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Blackout causes and severity
FLOODS Days - Weeks
HURRICANES Days - Months
HUMAN Error Minutes - Hours
?
TERRORISM / WMD Minutes - Years
WEATHER Minutes - Weeks
GRID Fault Minutes - Hours
EARTHQUAKES Hours - Months
FIRES Hours - Days
Knowing your specific threats makes the planning
your non-disaster much easier.
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The Grid as an inviting WME target Killing
the economy by attacking the gridSimple example
of the ripple effects

• Communications for ordering requires power
• Manufacturers need electricity to make and move
  product
• Vehicles require fuel pumped by electricity
• 18 wheelers, delivery vehicles, mass transit,
  cars, tractors.
• Distribution centers need power for lights and
  computers
• Just In Time operations arent
• Impaired local / basic services may affect a much
  larger area
• Customers quickly take business elsewhere,
  businesses close

WME Weapon of Mass Effect
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More WME issues to consider

• Water for drinking and fire response requires
  pressure which requires pumps to feed gravity
  based water towers
• Many Cell sites have limited backup lt 1 day,
  some have none
• PSTN (Central Offices) can run OM 1 day off
  (BIG) generators
• Grocery stores require power to prevent spoilage
• Few schools have backup power No kids in school
  means
• Hospitals typically have limited backup power for
  critical efforts
• How many days without power until it all shuts
  down?

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A blackout named Katrina

• Power was out from Texas to Mississippi
• Much of the affected area was underwater
  inaccessible
• Most communications infrastructure was destroyed
  or unusable
• Communications infrastructure not damaged by
  Katrina was often
• Inaccessible
• Running on un-refueled generators
• Running off batteries that had no recharging
  ability
• Connected to non-functioning equipment
• Lesson Your communications rely on the entire
  communications infrastructure chain, not just
  something in your hand.

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SATCOM during Katrina

• Iridium reported a usage level 30 times the
  normal traffic volume in the first 72 hours of
  the disaster. Other Satcom vendors reported
  similar statistics. (Satellite Industry
  Association)
• Satellite comms require a clear view of the
  sky, and
• a little training. Few work in buildings or
  basements.

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How fast can you restore communications and
provide needed capacity?
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How long will these last without power? Which
are most critical?
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Getting Creative for your Non-Disaster
Alternative Communications Options
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More Creativity78 Chevy LUV Old Sat TV antenna
WiFi

• Serious bandwidth to the last mile (or 3 or
  5 )
• A WiFi Access Point and old Satellite antenna
  high speed medium distance communications

You may find some simple, inexpensive point to
point solutions
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GETS and WPS excellent solutions

• GETS Government Emergency Telecommunications
  Service
• WPS Wireless Priority Service
• Both provide a priority queue which gives you the
  next available circuit on PSTN or cellular
  networks
• Can you qualify for a GETS card?
• Must show youre a responder or essential
  recovery personnel
• see their websites http//gets.ncs.gov/
  http//wps.ncs.gov/

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Communications that work in a blackout (or other
disaster)

• SneakerNET nearly ALWAYS works
• SatCom almost guaranteed (phone / HughesNet
  service)
• PSTN (regular telephone service) good for a
  day
• Paging (1 or 2 way paging) good, a Katrina
  star
• WPS and GETS Card excellent if you can get them
• Walkie Talkies Great for short range service
• Texting better, more efficient than cellular
  voice
• Cell Phones iffy, reporters keep the line
  open
• TV on-scene (make a sign to Mom)

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Communications Services Summary in a blackout or
disaster

• Planning for the situation is the most important
  consideration
• Identify critical vs. just nice to have needs
  and time periods
• Disasters dramatically increase the number of
  comms users
• Users will send more data in a disaster, reducing
  availability
• Systems that worked before may not, or may just
  limp along
• Identify critical needs construct a solution
  supporting them
• Under stress, Interoperability really does drop
  to a known robust medium (aka 911 Pentagon P3N
  Privates with Paper, Pencil and Nikes)

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Setting realistic expectationsand
communications sucked

• Why is this a most common moniker for disaster
  comms?
• Comms are scaled (and affordable) for routine
  operations
• Disaster more users, often 2 10X (30x
  satellite _at_ Katrina)
• Existing (and excited) users will talk more often
  and longer
• Infrastructure may be impaired Power, towers,
  interconnects
• One impaired network component can bring down a
  network segment
• Service personnel are busy with critical
  operations, not yours
• The lesson here is to be prepared!

http//www.colorado.edu/hazards/research/qr/qr189/
qr189.html. http//www.whitehouse.gov/reports/ka
trina-lessons-learned/
In informal after action reviews, this is the
most common notation
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Quiz

• Do you have a COOP (Continuity of Operations
  Plan) that covers blackouts?
• What communication services would you
  realistically need in a 30 minute blackout? 30
  hour? 30 day? Do you have them?
• Do you have anything in your home or business
  where uninterrupted power is critical?
• What are YOUR communications alternatives in a
  long blackout?
• What are YOUR power alternatives in a long
  blackout?
• Each question is 20 points, score yourselves.
• Collaboration with others is encouraged.

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Comments, Questions, Tacky Remarks or Feedback?
Mike Barney NonDisaster_at_mikebarney.net