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Regional Analysis

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Employment in the Twin Cities is up 37,000 jobs over the last 6 years- a 2.1 percent increase. ... Job Vacancy Survey Findings: Twin Cities ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Regional Analysis


1
The Twin Cities Changing Labor Market
  • Kyle Uphoff
  • Regional Analysis Outreach Unit
  • Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic
    Development (DEED)
  • Labor Market Information Office
  • www.mnwfc.org/lmi

2
Where can we (or employers) find this
information? www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi
3
About DEEDs Regional Analysts
  • Collaborate with regional stakeholders on new
    research
  • Extend access to DEED reports and statistics
  • Conduct presentations and training on regional
    economy labor market
  • Original research and analysis intended to
    answer the tough questions
  • Five regional analysts stationed across the state

4
Where have we been?
  • Employment in the Twin Cities is up 37,000 jobs
    over the last 6 years- a 2.1 percent increase.
  • The unemployment rate is at 3.3. 61,000
    unemployed but that doesnt count discouraged
    workers or the underemployed
  • Monthly unemployment insurance claims are down
    considerably from the recession
  • Why are we still talking about an event from 5
    years ago?

5
Where are we at right now?
  • Unemployment and UI claims are trending downward.
  • Renewed growth in personnel supply services
  • Overall job growth showing faster growth.
  • Corporations showing profits- a necessary
    precondition for job growth.
  • An end to loose labor markets? If so, what will
    the coming labor market look like? Structural
    shifts will change the face of employment…

6
Where have we been recently?
  • The Twin Cities has gained 37,000 jobs since
    August 2000 (an increase of 2.1)
  • Manufacturing -33,500
  • Fabricated Metals -6,000
  • Machinery Mfg. -9,300
  • Computer/Electronics -6,200
  • Transportation -7,100
  • Information -11,800
  • Prof. Technical Services -3,000
  • Mgmt. of Companies -2,200
  • Employment Agencies -7,100

7
Some industries have been hiring over the last 6
years
  • Healthcare 23,800
  • Leisure and Hospitality 26,100
  • Social Assistance 10,700
  • Construction 11,400
  • Credit Intermediation 10,200
  • Real Estate 3,700
  • Medical Supplies Mfg 3,600
  • Medical Devices Etc. 2,300
  • Legal Services 2,200
  • Education 5,700

8
Employment Change since 1991 MN Manufacturing
vs. Healthcare
9
Labor markets tighten and loosen but its not the
same for all industries
  • The Minnesota Job Vacancy Survey
  • Numbers and job titles of current openings
  • How long have positions been open?
  • Required education experience?
  • Starting wage offers?

www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi/publications/jobvacancy/
10
Job Vacancy Survey Findings Twin Cities
  • 37,300 job openings in the job market during 2nd
    Q 2006
  • 2.4 job vacancy rate
  • Hiring demand is highest in some high-skill
    occupations
  • Architecture and engineering
  • Healthcare support
  • Management
  • Healthcare practitioners and technical
  • Computer and mathematical
  • Business and financial

Beginnings of a skills shortage? Too early to
tell!
11
Vacancies are down but the nature of vacancies
has changed as well.
Source DEED, Labor Market Information Office,
Minnesota Job Vacancy Survey, 4Q 2005.
12
Are we heading for skill shortages? (too early
to tell)
  • Occupations gaining the most openings (2003-06)
  • Computer-related 345
  • Sciences 132
  • Management 121
  • Engineering 85
  • Education 74
  • Office/Admin 58
  • Food Preparation 58
  • Transportation 58
  • Business Fin. Ops 57
  • Occupations gaining (losing) the least openings
    (2003-06)
  • Sales 31
  • Production 29
  • Building Maint. 26
  • Healthcare Practitioners 23
  • Personal Svcs. 8
  • Installation Repair -2
  • Healthcare Support -14
  • Construction -23
  • Comm./Social Svcs. -23

48 of total Job Vacancies require more than a
high school diploma
13
Occupations with the most vacancies
  • Registered Nurses
  • Install., maintenance, repair
  • LPNs
  • Business Operations
  • Software Engineers
  • Management Analysts
  • IT Managers
  • Managers, all other
  • Med. Lab. Technicians
  • Home Health Aides
  • Laborers/Material Movers
  • Nurses Aides Orderlies
  • Customers Service Reps.
  • Truck Drivers
  • Receptionists/Info. Clerks
  • Security Guards

14
Future Prospect Which industries and
occupations are projected to grow in coming years?
  • Project industry trends for state and regions
  • Next, overlay industry growth with state staffing
    matrix
  • Result Occupational projections
  • www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi/tools/projections

15
Projections
  • Projections are estimated over a 10 year period
    every two years for the state and regions (also
    nationally).
  • Projections are largely based on past trends. We
    cannot predict
  • Recessions, depressions, energy crises...
  • Wars
  • Natural Disasters
  • Technology change
  • Legislation

16
MN Industry Projections 2004-2014
17
MN Industry Projections (2004-2014) Employment
Loss
18
MN Occupational Projections 2004-14
19
Replacement will drive openings in Production
Related Occupations
20
Year of Peak Manufacturing Employment
21
The aging population will drive healthcare growth
between 2004-2014
22
Some occupations will lose employment, 2004-2014
23
Employment and Innovation
Employment
Commoditization
Maturation or the Golden Age
Microchips?
Computer Mfg?
Correction
Expansion/ Speculation?
IT Services?
Inception
Nanotech?
Time
Biotech?
24
Projected Percent Employment Growth by
Educational and Training Requirement Minnesota
2002-2012
25
Workforce shortages or skills shortages
(2002-2012)
  • Skills areas projected to be most utilized by
    future occupations
  • Reading Comprehension
  • Active Listening
  • Speaking
  • Writing
  • Active Learning
  • Coordination
  • Monitoring
  • Instructing
  • Critical Thinking
  • Knowledge areas projected to be most utilized by
    future occupations
  • Customer Service
  • Mathematics
  • Clerical
  • Education/Training
  • English
  • Sales/marketing
  • Psychology
  • Computers/electronics
  • Administration Mgmt.

26
Demographics Working in an era of shortage
Labor Availability- Twin Cities Region
27
Projected Population Distribution Twin Cities,
2000-2030
28
Labor Force growth slows dramatically after 2015
29
While renewed economic growth will tighten the
labor market, demographics play an even bigger
role.
How long will they stay In the labor force?
How productive can they be?
Will there be enough?
30
Labor Force Participation, 2000
31
Labor Availability
  • Overall participation rates have not grown with
    expanding employment. Some of the decrease in
    Unemployment rate has to do with job seekers
    dropping out of the labor market.
  • Participation rates for youth and women have been
    in decline- are the same factors at work?
  • Lack of opportunity may be at work for youth
  • Some of the downturn for women may have to do
    with demographics
  • A larger issue may be education- more people are
    going to school, especially women.

32
Population Change 1990 to 2000
Source 1990 2000 Census
33
Percent of Population Age 45
34
Female Labor Force Participation
35
Female Labor Force Participation, 2000
36
Percent of Total Occupational Positions filled
by Women U.S.
BLS Women at Work A Visual Essay
37
Will workplace conditions change with skills
shortages?
  • The percent of women in professional business
    positions has doubled between 1972 allowing
    employers to tap into a new pool of talent.
    However,…
  • 37 of women in professional positions take time
    off of work voluntarily (24 for men).
  • Of those who take off, 93 would like to return
    to work but experience major reductions in
    salary.
  • 74 come back to work but 0 report that they
    would prefer to return to their former place of
    work
  • Off Ramps and On-ramps, Keeping Talented women
    on the road to success Harvard Business Review,
    March 2005

38
What Factors could Impact a Skills or Workforce
Shortage?
  • Economic growth attracts the necessary inmigrants
    from beyond MN.
  • Outsourcing/Offshoring Some jobs leave the
    state due to lower wages or simple labor
    availability
  • Technology Jobs go away everywhere but the ones
    that remain require high skills. Is this as
    scary as outsourcing?
  • Retirement on hold Pension funds become so
    depleted that people hold off retirement.
  • What else?

39
Employer Solutions
  • Increase Hours- Get more work from fewer workers.
  • Capital Deepening Substitute technology for
    labor.
  • Seek new workers from previously underutilized
    labor pools
  • Immigrants
  • The Disabled
  • Retirees
  • The Underemployed

40
Future Prospects for Local Employers
  • Increasing labor shortage as the economy emerges
    from the shadow of recession.
  • Wage pressure for skilled workers.
  • Increasing use of technology to increase
    productivity.
  • Greater use of customized training- particularly
    important for small employers.
  • Increased diversity in the workplace
  • Communication Issues
  • Assistive technology and flexible hours etc.

41
Occupational Wages Employment
  • Occupational Employment Wage Stats (OES) are
    based on rolling survey of 22,000 employers
  • Updated quarterly and annually for state,
    regions, and MSAs
  • Third Quarter 2005
  • Distribution stats for 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th,
    and 90th percentiles
  • Minnesota Salary Tool
  • www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi/tools/oes/

42
Where can I get this Information?
  • DEED Website www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi
  • DEED Publications Hotline 651-296-6545
  • DEED Twin Cities Regional Analyst Rachel
    Hillman
  • 651-296-5347
  • Regional Analysis Unit Manager Kyle Uphoff
  • 651-296-8713
  • DEED LMI Help Line 651-282-2714
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