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Evolution of Cities, Suburbs and the Countryside in the 21st Century

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Title: Evolution of Cities, Suburbs and the Countryside in the 21st Century


1
Evolution of Cities, Suburbs and the Countryside
in the 21st Century
  • Presentation by Joel Kotkin, Developer
    Conference Presidential Fellow, Chapman
    University
  • Washington , DC September 12, 2007

2
The Human Challenge
  • For Gods Eden,he substitutes his own

Jacques Ellul, French theologian
3
The Urban Challenge
  • City growth and sprawl have detached urbanities
    and suburbanites from natural world
  • Sprawl a natural reaction to industrial paradigm
    and represented an attempt to recapture this
    connection
  • Bringing Parks, Gardens to cities, older suburbs
    and new development relieves this pressure,
    creates a healthier relationship between
    geography and community

4
Historical Overview The Creation of Cities
  • Places Sacred, Safe and Busy
  • Priority given to Temples, Walls and Places of
    Commerce
  • The World was natural, and the city covered only
    a tiny part of it
  • As cities grew, the need for reminding people
    of nature grew
  • Line between city and country blurs
  • Protecting nature now becomes a key element in
    urban restoration and growth

5
The Key to the first Great City
  • The Greeks boasted of their useless art
    and Egypts legacy lay in idle pyramids , but
    what were these compared to the fourteen
    aqueducts that brought water to Rome?
  • A Roman Historian Frontinus Ist Century AD

6
The Islamic City
  • Out of desert culture, Arabs developed the idea
    of the walled garden
  • Islam thinks of urban ideal as celestial garden
  • Merged with more ancient Mesopotamian and Persian
    notions, largely in Palace Gardens

7
Delhi in 16th and 17th Centuries
  • … a Garden of Eden that is populated

8
Urbanization in Demographic Terms
  • Urban areas accounted for a small proportion of
    population before modern times
  • Heavily urbanized regions, such as Western Europe
    and Japan, reached 15 urban by 17th Century
  • By 17th Century, Holland 45 urban
  • In US, urban population rose from 5 in 1800 to
    about 50 in 1920
  • 80 of Americans now live in cities or suburbs









9
The Crisis of the Industrial City
  • Cities grow with enormous rapidity
  • Industrialization makes pollution and other
    health hazards critical
  • Middle Class and aristocrats look for a way out
  • Working Class dissatisfaction rises

10
Urban Disaster
  • The cottages are very small, old and dirty,
    while the streets are uneven, party unpaved, not
    properly drained and full of ruts. Heaps of
    refuse, offal and sickening filth are everywhere
    interspersed with pools of stagnant liquid. The
    atmosphere is polluted by the stench and is
    darkened by the smoke of a dozen factory
    chimneys.

Frederick Engels on Manchester in 1844
11
Victorian Industrial City
12
Industrial cities boosted crowding dramatically
Urban Land Use 1400-1850 Square meters/Person
13
Bringing Order and Nature Paris
  • Let us open new streets, let us clean up the
    populous streets that lack air and daylight. Let
    the beneficial light of the sun everywhere
    penetrate our walls.
  • Napoleon III,1850

14
Haussmanns Paris
15
The British Alternative The Garden City
  • Town and country must be married and out of this
    joyous union will spring a new hope, a new life,
    a new civilization.

Ebenezer Howard
16
Progressive Reform
  • Reformers in Britain, US, Germany and other
    industrial countries develop new sanitation
    systems
  • Development of parks in cities, notably Londons
    Green Park, Hyde Park, New Yorks Central Park
    and St. Louis Forest Park
  • Commuter trains spur development of suburbs to
    bring people to the countryside

17
Basic Long-term Trends in Americas Metropolitan
Areas
  • Population Growth surges, heads to the periphery
  • Both immigrants and domestic migrants lead the
    trend
  • Economic de-clustering to suburbs, exurbs and
    beyond
  • Green and social elements critical in next wave
    of development

18
More Crowding to Come US Population Growth
1960-2050
Source Bureau of the Census, CensusScope
19
In 2030, about half of the buildings in which
Americans live, work, and shop will have been
built after 2000.
58.9
25.7
6.4
Northeast
West
Total
Midwest
South
Source Toward a New Metropolis The Opportunity
to Rebuild America, p.v
20
Minorities Drive the Next 100 Million
Source McLeod (1996)
21
U.S. Population in Urban, Suburban, Rural
Areas
Millions
1950-1999
People (millions)
22
Growth City vs. Suburb
US Metropolitan Central City Population
2000-2005
Demographia
23
Seeking Smaller Places Domestic Migration by
Population of Area 2000-2004
Millions
24
Declustering A Global Perspective
Percentage Change in Population 1965 - 2000
Source Demographia
25
In Most of the US the Single Family Home
Predominated as The Universal Aspiration
  • The suburban house is the idealization of
    every immigrants dream--- the vassals dream of
    his own castle. Europeans who come here are
    delighted by our suburbs. Not to live in an
    apartment! It is a universal aspiration to own
    your own home.

Los Angeles urbanist Edgardo Contini
26
Where Americans Would Like To Live
Fannie Mae, 1998
27
What People Want There are small specialized
niches and larger ones
  • 83 percent want this kind of dwelling (National
    Association of Home Builders)
  • 86 percent in California (PPIC)
  • 70 or more of downshifting boomers retiring in
    place or staying suburban study
  • About as many empty nesters heading to
    countryside as headed to city
  • 40 expect kids to move back at some point
  • Latinos highest percentage ethnicity to prefer
    single family homemost immigrants now in suburbs
  • Focus suburbs,exurbs, safe neighborhoods in
    closer, attractive areas

28
Big Rural Opportunity How We Live and Want to
Live
  • Where we live now 16 in rural or micropolitan
    areas

35 want to live in the country
Sources Bill Frey, 2004 American Community Survey
29
Jobs Head out
Percentage of Metropolitan area employment
Source Edward Glaeser, Matthew Kahn and
Chenghuan Chu, Job Sprawl Employment in US
Metropolitan Areas, Brookings Center on Urban
and Metropolitan Policy, May 2001
30
Central City Suburban Office Space Development,
1986-99
Millions of Square Feet
100
Downtown
Suburban
80
60
40
20
0
99
98
97
96
95
94
93
92
91
90
89
88
87
86
Source Milken Institute
31
National Office Construction
Sq. Ft. x Millions
Source cbre
32
Technology The Great Equalizer?
  • New Technology could telescope the distance
    between communities
  • Younger workers can now choose affordable
    lifestyle and still stay in less dense areas
  • Technology helps tie smaller communities
    directly to other global and US metropolitan
    markets

33
The Ephemeral City The Future of the Core?
a bazaar, a great gallery of shops and places of
concourse and rendezvous.
H.G. Wells description of urban centers in the
future
34
Cities without Children
Percent Less than 18 Years, Select Major U.S.
Cities
35
Thoughts on Ephemeral Cities A Model for
Atlanta?
Poor but sexy."
  • Mayor Klaus Wowereit on Berlin

A cross between Carmel and Calcutta
Kevin Starr on San Francisco
36
Identifying Next Growth Regions
  • No simple formula and there are almost always
    exceptions to every rule
  • Affordability seems to be the big driver as a
    result of massive shift in property prices
  • Movement of educated and immigrants may prove
    canaries in the coal mine for the next
    generation
  • Shift from superstar to opportunity regions

37
Regional Metropolitan Populations,
Growth Rate 1960-2000
source U.S. Census data tabulated by
demographia.com
38
MSA Population Growth, 2000-2005
Source U.S. Census Population Estimates Program
39
Cumulative Net Domestic Migration
1995-2000 2000-2005
Source 1995-2000 U.S. Census 2000 PUMS
2000-2005 U.S. Census Population Estimates
Program
40
Domestic Migration Rate vs. Immigration Rate
2000-2005
Source U.S. Census Population Estimates Program
41
Job Growth Over Past 15 Years Helps to Identify
Opportunity Areas
Non-farm Job Growth, Selected MSAs, 1990 - 2006
Las Vegas
Boise
Phoenix
Riverside-San Bernardino
Charlotte
Atlanta
Dallas-Fort Worth
San Diego
Houston
Cincinnati
Pittsburgh
Chicago
San Francisco Bay Area
Boston
Los Angeles - Orange
New York City
Detroit
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
Source BLS Data, Smoothed 3rd quarter average
data, various years.
42
Growth in Professional Business Services
43
Ratio of Median Home Price Growth to Average
Annual Pay Growth, 2001-2005
Source National Association of Realtors and U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics
44
Affordability Index Between Leading Dynamic
Regions
(median price for median family)
Source National Association of Homebuilders
45
Migration of Educated Workers 1995-2005
Net Domestic Migration of College Educated,
Number of Migrants per 1,000 total
Population,1995-2000 and 2004-2005
46
The Archipelago of Villages Everyplace a City
  • Housing near jobs
  • Emphasis on families
  • Strong role for village shopping streets and
    markets
  • Provision of open space around the village core
    and housing estates-
  • Solving the problem of sprawl within the Sprawl

47
Visions of Suburbia
  • The brain dead land of Desperate Housewives
  • A new kind of sprawling dystopia
  • What people want, a place that can adapt to change

48
(Sub)Urban Villages A New Vision to encourage
economic growth
  • Walkable environments with shopping and work
    opportunities
  • A sense of neighborhood and place
  • Greater access to public transit
  • A way to be within a great metropolitan area but
    with the ambience, amenity of a small town
  • A partner to single family homes, not a threat

49
Density is coming naturally Metro Phoenix
Density (1975-2000)
50
Building the Post-Industrial Community
  • Housing by itself does not accomplish very
    much,… its not a panacea.

Robert Simon, 1966, Founder of Reston, Virginia
51
Examples of New Suburban Villages
  • Downtown Fullerton
  • Naperville, Illinois
  • Woodlands, TX

52
A Key Component Bringing Culture to the Burbs
53
Recovering the Sacred Place
54
Building a Green Urbanism
  • Create greenways based on water features of
    region
  • Use multi-polar structure to create an
    archipelago of villages
  • Address middle class flight and keep families
    around by improving environmental quality

55
Rethinking Density on Environmental Grounds
  • Low/mid-density using proper design and
    landscaping may use less water and energy
  • Reducing heat islands overdense development
    in London and Los Angeles can lead to urban
    centers being 3C higher than outlying areas
  • Learning from mideastern ancient cities like
    Shiraz in how to design largely low-rise housing
    to maximize natural cooling and reduce evaporation

56
Total Annual Greenhouse Emissions By Dwelling
Type
Tonnes CO2/Person/Year
Tonnes CO2/Dwelling/Year
Institute of Public Affairs
57
The Big Trend Digital Impact
Percent change by mode, journey to work 1980-2000
Source US Decennial Census
58
The Valencia, California, Survey 2001
Would you take a pay cut to work in the
immediate area where you live? 50 of workers
said they would take a 20 pay cut to a take a
job in their local area.
Source The Newhall Land Company
59
What We Lost the Pre-industrial City
  • The biggest jolt the Industrial Revolution
    administered to the Western family was the
    progressive removal of work from the home.

Dr. Peter N. Stearns, historian
60
Back to the Future The Post-Industrial City
  • If the electronic cottage was to spread, a
    chain of consequences of great importance would
    flow through society. Many of these consequences
    would please the most ardent environmentalist or
    techno-rebel, while at the same time opening up
    new options for business entrepreneurship

Alvin Toffler,The Third Wave
61
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