This paper describes ongoing research also involving Nancy Brodsky, Sharon Deland, Vanessa Vargas an

1
Modeling the Impact of Loss in U.S. Soybean
Production Resulting from Soy Rust Disease
Paul G. Kaplan pgkapla_at_sandia.gov
Stephen H. Conrad shconra_at_sandia.gov
Aldo A. Zagonel aazagon_at_sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories, Systems Engineering
Analysis, Critical Infrastructure Protection
Decision Support Systems (CIP/DSS) 23rd
International Conference of the System Dynamics
Society Boston (July 17-21, 2005)
1
3
1
Example Heading
Example Subheading
Example Text Box..
Without forecasts and the futures market, crop
loss due to disease at the time t would
constrain sales one year later. When working
properly, forecasts and the futures market should
anticipate and help correct for future
surpluses or deficits.
1970 corn blight
Sources USDA NASS historical data site
http//www.usda.gov/nass/pubs/trackrec/croptr05.pd
f
2
9
10
Conceptual Crop Model (soybean/corn)
8
7
5
6
Stochastic climate conditions could even cause
expanding oscillations
Price
PC
This paper describes on-going research also
involving Nancy Brodsky, Sharon Deland,
Vanessa Vargas and Jackson Thies We thank Andy
Ford and four anonymous reviewers for their
constructive critiques and helpful
comments A special thank you to Louise Maffitt
for helping us create this poster
M
Coverage
Sources Spot USDA NASS Soybean Monthly Price
Reports Forecasted USDA World Agricultural
Supply Demand Estimates (WASDE) Futures
USDA Economic Research Service (ERS)
Meadows (1970) vs. Plato Chambers (2004)
Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by
Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company,
for the United States Department of Energys
National Nuclear Security Administration under
contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.