Western Africa NWP: The model and initial results

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Western Africa NWPThe model and initial
results
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• Model Configuration
• MM5-based Real-Time Four Dimensional Data
  Assimilation (RTFDDA) system
• Standard model physics are currently used
• 6-hour cycles with 24 - 36 hr forecasts in
  each cycle, depending on the grid.
• Observations Standard GTS/WMO surface and
  upper-air stations, plus MADIS (mostly AMDAR) and
  QuikScat sea-surface winds

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• Computing Resources
• NCAR Director GAU Reserve
• 7840 GAUs per month until May 1
• CISL Lightning Linux-cluster
• 18 dedicated dual-cpu nodes 1 model
  master, 16 MPP and 1 spare
• Local post-processing and web service
• RAL PC clusters

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Domains Three 2-way nested domains
DX 40.5/13.5/4.5 km Dimensions D1
261x261x36 D2 184x295x36 D3 208x301x36 Sizes
(km2) D110530x10530 D2 3969x2592 D3 1350x931
D1
D2
D3
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Typical Distribution of Currently Available
Observations
QuikScat SFC
ROAB
20061211 06
20061211 12
Currently available obs Sfc mostly at 00, 03
21Z Raob 00 and 12Z. Some at 06
and18Z QuikScat twice a day AMDAR vary
diurnally. More obs should be collected and
assimilated into the system in the future.
AMDAR
20061204 12
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Typical Distribution of Currently Available
Observations
20061211 06
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Land Use and Terrain Features
TERRAIN HEIGHT (KM)
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Precip. Climate (From UK/CRU)
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Verification of RTFDDA Forecasts of Cloud
fields (Domain 1 valid at 00Z Dec. 5, 2006)
NRL DAY/NGT VIS/IR
RTFDDA 6h FCST Cloud Top T
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Verification of RTFDDA Forecasts of Cloud
fields (Domain 1 valid at 18Z Dec. 6, 2006)
NRL DAY/NGT VIS/IR
RTFDDA 18h FCST Cloud Top T
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Verification of RTFDDA Forecasts of
Precipitation (Domain 1 valid at 21Z Dec. 6,
2006)
NRL GEO-MV derived 3-h rain
RTFDDA 3h FCST 1h rain
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Domain 2 (Animated hourly, 07Z Dec. 4 18Z Dec.
5 2006)
Surface T and Winds
Surface Qv and Winds
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Domain 3 (Animated hourly, 07Z Dec. 4 18Z Dec.
5 2006)
Surface T and Winds
Surface Qv and Winds
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Next steps, and plans

• Ghanian and Nigerian forecasters are providing
  subjective feedback on model strengths and
  weaknesses.
• NCAR will perform objective verification of the
  forecasts, and improve the model as needed.
• PC cluster will be set up in spring 07 at NCAR
  for longer-term operation of the modeling system.
• Proposal will be submitted to the Millennium
  Challenge Corporation (MCC) for longer-term NWP
  capacity building

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continued

• For the MCC proposal, NCAR will partner with ZedX
  corporation, that links agricultural models with
  meteorological models, and which has a presence
  in Ghana.
• NCAR will partner with NASA, Columbia University,
  and CU to work with a CU PhD student who will
  apply WRF for climate-downscaling in West Africa.
• NCAR will continue to work with Ben Lamptey
  during the second year of his post-doctoral
  appointment, to establish liaisons with
  stakeholders and to do what is necessary to
  maintain collaboration after his return to Ghana.