Gold Seasonal Trading Strategies

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Gold Seasonal Trading Strategies

• Presented by
• Louis Paquette
• Publisher, EGS
• www.emerginggrowthstocks.ca

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Gold Seasonal Trading Strategies
Question In ONE WORD, what is the biggest
challenge facing stock market investors and
speculators?
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Gold Seasonal Trading Strategies

• UNCERTAINTY
• Over
• Overall market conditions
• Interest rates
• Commodity prices
• Specific company performance
• Government intervention
• Odds of discovering a mineable economic deposit
• Competition
• Etc.

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Gold Seasonal Trading StrategiesSo what is
certain?

• Stock rise an average 7 per annum over time, but
  not consistently
• There is a rhythm to asset price movement
  (cycles) from overbought to oversold, from overly
  optimistic to overly pessimistic
• A contrarian can take advantage of this to boost
  returns and reduce losses

Optimism
Pessimism
Stocks
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Gold Seasonal Trading Strategieshas strong
annual seasonal cyclical tendencies
Gold

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Gold Seasonal Trading StrategiesOnce Gold is
overbought it always returns to the moving
average
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Gold Seasonal Trading StrategiesHUI Index
Another strong tendency Gold strength seems to
alternate from year to year.
Strong
Weak
Weak
Strong
Strong
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Gold Seasonal Trading StrategiesAn aggressive
way to play the cycle Horizon BetaPro ETFs HGD
HGU
Buy HGD anytime now on dips (on rallies in
gold price) sell this summer
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Gold Seasonal Trading StrategiesAdvantages of
Horizons ETFs

• Go Long or Short (U UP or D Down)
• I.E. HGD or HGU
• Shorting and leverage without the hazards of
  short selling or options futures
• 2 X Leverage
• If Gold moves 2 down,
• HUI 4
• HGD 6

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Gold Seasonal Trading StrategiesThis summer
Sell HGD, Buy HGU
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Gold Seasonal Trading Strategies Example of the
leverage 1-Day return using the HGU.TSX ETF on
Jan 2,2008
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Gold Seasonal Trading Strategies 5 month returns
All in Rounded numbers The HGU.TSX ETF clearly
delivers superior returns
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Gold Seasonal Trading Strategies HGU vs. Other
Gold ETFs 5 month returns
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Gold Seasonal Trading Strategies Specific
Suggested trades

• Buy HGU (Horizon Gold UP)
• At Cycle Bottom (June to August)
• Sell at Cycle Top (Feb to May)
• 2. Buy HGD (Horizon Gold DOWN)
• At Cycle Top (Feb to May)
• Sell Cycle Bottom (June to August)
• Web Site www.hbpetfs.com/hgu.asp