Seasonal forecast products: What is available regionally and locally Stakeholder Workshop Enhanced A

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Seasonal forecast products What is available
regionally and locally?Stakeholder Workshop
Enhanced Application of Climate Predictions in
Pacific Island Countries Vanuatu, Solomon
Islands, Fiji, Tonga, Samoa, Niue, Cook Islands,
Tuvalu, Kiribati2005
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Introduction

• Introduction to the range of seasonal climate
  information available to you on the
  world-wide-web.
• This information is largely produced by agencies
  who do not have the detailed knowledge of your
  weather climate.
• gtRemember your local Meteorological Service is
  your local expert.

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Overview
Your Local Seasonal Outlooks - SCOPIC

• Island Climate Update NIWA
• Queensland Centre for Climate Applications
  Outlook
• POAMA BOM
• International Research Institute
• Climate Prediction Center-NCEP
• ECMWF, NASA,..
• ENSO Model Summary - BoM
• IRI Model Summary
• ENSO Wrap-Up / Tropical Note- BoM
• TAO / TRITON Data Display NOAA

Locally developed local forecasts .. .. .. Remotel
y developed global guidance
Regional Outlooks Global Outlooks
Model Summaries
Monitoring / analysis / information tools
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Your Local Seasonal Outlooks
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ICU - NIWA
www.niwa.co.nz/ncc/icu/2005-01/outlook
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Queensland Centre for Climate Applications
http//www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/
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POAMA Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Model - BOM
www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/ocean/JAFOOS/POAMA
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ECMWF Outlooks
www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/seasonal
/forecast/charts/
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NSIPP - NASA Outlooks
nsipp.gsfc.nasa.gov/exptlpreds/index.cgi
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ENSO Model Summary - BOM
www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml
Click on each model for more detail
Model commentary located below table
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ENSO Wrap-Up - BOM
www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso

• Describes latest ENSO indicators. Eg
• SSTs
• Subsurface
• Wind and cloud patterns
• SOI

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TAO/TRITON data display - NOAA
www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/

• View
• SST anomalies
• Westerly wind anomalies
• Subsurface patterns
• Other diagnostics

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Pacific ENSO Applications Center
http//lumahai.soest.hawaii.edu/Enso/
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Concluding Remarks

• There is a wealth of climate information
  available on the WWW.
• Not all climate forecasts are equal
• Some are experimental
• Some have not been skill tested
• Some may not be scientifically based.
• Remember your local Meteorological Service is
  your local expert.

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Thank You
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CPC-NCEP Outlooks
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pacdir/COU1.html
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CPC-NCEP Outlooks
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/S
STs/
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IRI Seasonal Outlook
iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/net_asmt/

Pacific Islands
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ENSO Discussion - CPC
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring
/enso_advisory/
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IRI Model Summary
iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/SST_tabl
e.html
NOAA Image
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Tropical Climate Note - BOM
www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropnote/tropnote.shtml
List of associated figures below text. Eg