ICCLs 7th Annual Leadership Forum Miami, Florida November 46, 2003

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ICCLs 7th AnnualLeadership ForumMiami,
FloridaNovember 4-6, 2003
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Why has recent growth been so weak?

• High oil prices
• Collapse in the new economy
• Corporate retrenchment
• Sharply lower equity prices
• Uncertainty caused by Iraq war
• Confidence impacts of 911, SARS

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What will generate a recovery?

• Low interest rates
• Fiscal stimulus in US
• Lower oil prices
• End of Iraq war uncertainty, SARS crisis
• Turnaround in new economy
• Continued strong productivity

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Implications for Travel Tourism

• Travel and tourism industry has been hit hard by
  the global economic downturn
• It has suffered particularly from budget cutbacks
  by companies under profit squeeze
• 911, SARS have exacerbated the downturn
• Some sectors have boomed low-cost airlines
• Short-term outlook remains very difficult as
  companies continue to cut costs
• But long-term prospects still positive once
  economy recovers, travel and tourism demand will
  return to strong growth trend

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WTTCs 2003 Tourism Satellite Accounting Research
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The Base CaseDiplomatic Solution orQuick
Decisive VictoryNo WMDNo OPEC Oil ReductionNo
Arab Govt ChallengeNew Iraq GovtNo Iraq Oil
Damage
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Components of Travel Tourism Demand
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World - Personal TT
2003

• Travel Tourism Spending by Visitors
• US 2.1 Trillion in 2003
• 9.9 of Total Personal Consumption in Year 2003
• 2.2 Real Growth in 2003
• 4.8 Real Growth in 2004
• 3.7 Real Growth per annum (2004-2013)

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World - Business Travel

• TT Spending by Companies and Government Agencies
• US 489 Billion in 2003
• US 423 Bn Corporate
• US 66 Bn Government
• 0.6 Real Growth in 2003
• 4.8 Real Growth in 2004
• 3.7 Real Growth per annum (2004-2013)

2003
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World - Govt TT Expenditures

• Government Travel Tourism Services Provided to
  Individual Visitors and the Community-at-large
• US 224 Billion in 2003
• 3.9 of Total Government Expenditures in 2003
• 2.8 Real Growth in 2003
• 3.0 Real Growth in 2004
• 3.0 Real Growth per annum
  (2004-2013)

2003
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World - TT Capital Investment

• TT Facilities, Equipment and Infrastructure by
  Public and Private Sectors
• US 686 Billion in 2003
• 9.6 of Total Capital Investment in 2003
• 2.8 Real Growth in 2003
• 3.9 Real Growth in 2004
• 4.3 Real Growth per annum
  (2004-2013)

2003
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World - Visitor Exports
2003

• TT Spending by Inbound Visitors
• US 531 Billion in 2003
• 5.9 of Total Exports in 2003
• 3.0 Real Growth in 2003
• 10.7 Real Growth in 2004
• 7.1 Real Growth per annum
  (2004-2013)

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World - Other TT Exports
2003

• Consumer and Capital Goods Exported for Visitors
  and Travel Tourism Companies
• US 479 Billion in 2003
• 5.3 of Total Exports in 2003
• 8.9 Real Growth in 2003
• 8.9 Real Growth in 2004
• 7.2 Real Growth per annum
  (2004-2013)

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Perspectives of Travel Tourism Supply /
Production
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Consumption Travel Tourism Industry
Demand Travel Tourism Economy
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World - TT Industry GDP
2003

• Travel Tourism GDP Associated with Visitor
  Consumption (Direct)
• US 1.3 Trillion in 2003
• 3.7 of Total Gross Domestic Production in 2003
• 1.1 Real Growth in 2003
• 4.8 Real Growth in 2004
• 3.6 Real Growth per annum (2004-2013)

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World - TT Economy GDP

• Travel Tourism GDP Associated with TT Demand
  (Direct and Indirect)
• US 3.5 Trillion in 2003
• 10.2 of Total Gross Domestic Production in 2003
• 2.0 Real Growth in 2003
• 4.8 Real Growth in 2004
• 3.9 Real Growth per annum (2004-2013)

2003
WTTC Concept
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World - TT Industry Employment

• Travel Tourism Employment assoc. with Visitor
  Consumption (Direct)
• 67.4 Million Jobs in 2003
• 2.6 of Total Employment in 2003
• 0.1 Real Growth in 2003
• 3.4 Real Growth in 2004
• 2.2 Real Growth per annum (2004-2013)

2003
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World - TT Economy Employment

• Travel Tourism Employment assoc. with TT
  Demand (Direct and Indirect)
• 195 Million Jobs in 2003
• 7.6 of Total Employment in 2003
• 1.5 Real Loss in 2003
• 3.3 Real Growth in 2004
• 2.4 Real Growth per annum (2004-2013)

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WTTC Concept
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TT World Growth Estimates
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TT US Growth Estimates
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TT Caribbean Growth Estimates
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Regional and National Perspectives
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TT Economy GDP
World Average
European Union
Oceania
Caribbean
2003 TT Economy GDP (Percent of Total)
North Africa
Other Western Europe
Central and Eastern Europe
Southeast Asia
Middle East
South Asia
North America
Sub-Saharan Africa
Northeast Asia
Latin America
TT Economy GDP Growth 2004 -2013 (Percent
Annualized)
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TT Economy GDP
Size Represents 2003 US
European Union
Oceania
Caribbean
North Africa
Other Western Europe
Central and Eastern Europe
Middle East
Southeast Asia
North America
Sub-Saharan Africa
South Asia
Northeast Asia
Latin America
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TT Economy GDP
Top High of GDP Bottom Low of GDP
European Union
High of GDP
Oceania
Caribbean
North Africa
Other Western Europe
Central and Eastern Europe
Middle East
Southeast Asia
Low of GDP
North America
Sub-Saharan Africa
South Asia
Northeast Asia
Latin America
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TT Economy GDP
Left Slow Growth Right Fast Growth
European Union
Oceania
Caribbean
North Africa
Other Western Europe
Central and Eastern Europe
Middle East
Southeast Asia
North America
Sub-Saharan Africa
South Asia
Northeast Asia
Latin America
Slow Growth
Fast Growth
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TT Demand
WTTCs Caribbean Countries (2004-2013 Annualized
Real Growth, Percent)
18 Cayman Islands 7.2 60 Bahamas 6.2 65 Dominican
Republic 6.1 69 Cuba 6.0 71 Grenada 6.0 73 Dominic
a 6.0 76 Guadeloupe 5.9 79 British Virgin
Islands 5.9 87 Saint Lucia 5.7 88 Trinidad and
Tobago 5.7 93 St Vincent Grenadines 5.7 94 Anguill
a 5.7
96 Jamaica 5.5 110 Barbados 5.2 112 Saint Kitts
and Nevis 5.1 121 Antigua and Barbuda 5.0 122 Cura
çao 4.9 124 Virgin Islands 4.9 132 Martinique 4.6
134 Puerto Rico 4.6 139 Bermuda 4.5 142 Aruba 4.4
146 Haiti 4.2
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TT Capital Investment
World Average
Caribbean
Oceania
North America
North Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
2003 TT Capital Investment (Percent of Total)
Middle East
Other Western Europe
Southeast Asia
European Union
South Asia
Central and Eastern Europe
Northeast Asia
Latin America
TT Capital Investment Growth 2003 -2013 (Percent
Annualized)
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TT Capital Investment
WTTCs Caribbean Countries (2004-2013 Annualized
Real Growth, Percent)

• 20 Cayman Islands 5.5
• 44 Trinidad and Tobago 4.9
• 55 Saint Kitts and Nevis 4.6
• 66 Dominican Republic 4.3
• 67 Martinique 4.2
• 78 St Vincent Grenadines 4.1
• 97 Aruba 3.9
• 98 Saint Lucia 3.9
• 99 Grenada 3.8
• 105 Bahamas 3.5
• Virgin Islands 3.3
• 111 Cuba 3.3

116 Anguilla 3.2 118 Antigua and
Barbuda 3.2 125 Barbados 3.1 128 Dominica 3.0 135
Guadeloupe 2.9 137 British Virgin
Islands 2.8 145 Jamaica 2.5 146 Puerto
Rico 2.5 151 Bermuda 2.2 153 Curaçao 2.1 154 Haiti
2.0
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