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Title:

Some Conclusions:

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Transitions from authoritarianism to liberal democracies. sometimes ... Likely resentment against the US, west in Iraq, Arab countries, Muslim world ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Some Conclusions:


1
Some Conclusions
  • Reflections on Regime Change

2
What have you learned?
  • Numerous facets of how political systems operate
  • Input factors
  • Parties
  • Interest groups
  • Civil society
  • Political Culture
  • Constitutions and political institutions
  • Parliaments
  • Political Executives
  • Bureaucracy
  • Policy-processes

3
Regime Change How It Occurs
  • Broader problematique
  • Transitions from authoritarianism to liberal
    democracies
  • sometimes
  • Because of internal factors, e.g.
  • inability of regime to deliver what it has
    promised
  • Internal revolt, overthrow
  • Sometimes because of invasion and total defeat
  • Postwar Germany
  • Postwar Italy
  • Postwar Japan

4
Imposing regime change
  • Possible in Germany, Japan Italy because
  • Occupier was in firm control
  • Regimes in question were definitively defeated
  • Political forces were strictly channeled
  • Some prohibited or kept in opposition
  • Postwar Italy and Japan as one-party dominant
    states
  • Reconstructed regimes integrated into
  • Broader alliances
  • Western economies
  • No other alternatives available or politically
    possible

5
Building and consolidating liberal democracy
  • Requires
  • Some minimal agreement on institutions, form of
    government contingent consent
  • Recognition that the new regime is the only game
    in town
  • A political and economic situation in which key
    groups support or tolerate the new regime
  • A civil society and political culture in which
  • Citizens groups feel that they can participate
  • Differences and oppositions are tolerated
  • The regime is regarded as legitimate

6
Will this fit post-invasion Iraq?
  • Relatively educated population, but isolated
  • Likely resentment against the US, west in Iraq,
    Arab countries, Muslim world
  • Problems of a plural society artificial
    construct
  • Kurds, in the north
  • Shia majority, in the south
  • Inexperience but possible tutelage
  • Contingent consent, but among whom?

7
Problems
  • What incentives will there be to sustain
    democratic rule?
  • What incentives or motives will make individuals
    or groups want to overturn
  • Importance of context, especially what is
    happening in neighboring countries

8
Final exam
  • Thursday, April 24th
  • 900-1100 A.M.
  • SN2036
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