ASIP PM2.5 SIP Analyses

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ASIP PM2.5 SIP Analyses

• States just beginning SIP Development
• Conceptual Description
• Emissions Inventory
• Model Results for existing regulations
• Emissions sensitivities define where to look for
  additional reductions
• Future analyses

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PM2.5 Analyses provided

• ASIP analyses overview ppt Aug 07
• ASIP analyses for Knox Co., TN Aug 07
• ASIP analyses for Louisville, KY Sept 07
• Conceptual Description for WV Oct 07
• NOx Insignificance with AL Oct 07
• Meeting of Local PM2.5 Nonattainment Areas in
  Chicago, IL Oct 07
• Birmingham Nonattainment Meeting Oct 07
• NOx Insignificance for TN and KY underway

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GA, NC, SC and TN FRM Samplers
Annual Arithmetic Mean
Annual Arithmetic Mean (µg/m3)
10
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Fulton Co, GA
Chattanooga, TN
Hickory, NC
Greenville, SC
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KY and WV FRM Samplers
Annual Arithmetic Mean
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Fayette, KY
Louisville, KY
Cabell Co, WV
Hancock Co, WV
Charleston, WV
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2002, 2009, 2018 Base G2 SO2 EGU Emissions in
VISTAS States
West Virginia
South Carolina
North Carolina
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What if 2005 used as baseline as MRPO did?
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ASIP Source Sector Emissions Sensitivities
(Delivered Jan 2006)

• Evaluated responses to emissions reductions for
  specific pollutants and source sectors

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Responses to 30 reductions in 2009 emissions
Knoxville, TN Annual Average PM2.5
Bio VOC
Anthro VOC
Boundary
-0.80
MRPO
-0.70
MANE-VU
-0.60
CENRAP
-0.50
VISTAS NH3
WV
-0.40
VA
-0.30
TN
-0.20
SC
-0.10
NC
MS
0.00
KY
NH3
VOCs
GA
SO2_EGU
NOx_Point
Primary Carbon_ Ground
Primary Carbon_ Point
NOx_Ground
Primary Carbon_ Fires
nd
SO2_nonEGU point
FL
AL
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Responses to 30 reductions in 2009 emissions
Greenville, SC Annual Average PM2.5
NH3
VOCs
Primary Carbon Point
Primary Carbon Ground
Primary Carbon Fires
SO2_EGU
NOx_Point
NOx_Ground
SO2_nonEGU
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Responses to 30 reductions in 2009 emissions
Louisville, KY Annual Average PM2.5
Bio. VOC
Anthro VOC
Boundary
MRPO
MANE-VU
)
3
CENRAP
g/m
VISTAS
m
(
WV
2.5
VA
PM
TN
D
SC
NC
MS
KY
GA
NH3
VOCs
FL
Primary Carbon_ Point
SO2_EGU
Primary Carbon_ Ground
Primary Carbon_ Fires
NOx_Point
SO2_nonEGU point
NOx_Ground
AL
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Responses to 30 reductions in 2009 emissions
North Birmingham, AL Annual Average PM2.5
Bio VOC
Anthro VOC
Boundary
MRPO
MANE-VU
CENRAP
VISTAS NH3
WV
VA
TN
SC
NC
MS
KY
NH3
VOCs
NOx_Point
GA
Primary Carbon Fires
SO2_EGU
Primary Carbon Ground
NOx_Ground
Primary Carbon Point
SO2_nonEGU point
FL
AL
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North Birmingham, AL
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Responses to 30 reductions in 2009 emissions
Atlanta, GA (Fire Stn 8, Fulton Co.) Annual
Average PM2.5
Bio VOC
Anthro VOC
Boundary
MRPO
MANE-VU
CENRAP
VISTAS NH3
WV
VA
TN
SC
NC
MS
KY
NH3
VOCs
GA
NOx_Point
Primary Carbon Fires
SO2_EGU
Primary Carbon Ground
NOx_Ground
Primary Carbon Point
SO2_nonEGU point
FL
AL
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Conclustions Emissions Sensitivities

• Greatest benefits from reducing SO2 from EGU and
  non-EGU
• Benefits from reducing primary carbon from ground
  and point sources
• Small benefit in reducing NOx emissions for
  wintertime PM2.5
• NH4NO3 small on summer days when mass highest
• NH3 reductions, if feasible, would reduce
  wintertime PM2.5

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ASIP Planned Analyses

• Top sources of primary PM2.5 in county with
  non-attaining monitor
• NOx Insignificance Demonstration that
• Local analyses
• Control strategy analyses
• 2009 Best and Final Model Run
• Model Performance Evaluation and Technical
  Support Document
• EPA MATS tool to speciate FRM data
• If necessary, consider later attainment year