Hydrogen for Light Duty Vehicles: Opportunities and Barriers

1
Hydrogen for Light Duty Vehicles Opportunities
and Barriers

• James L Sweeney
• Stanford UniversityGlobal Climate and Energy
  Project

2
A Vision for Hydrogen

• The world could add hydrogen to electricity as a
  dominant energy carrier
• Allowing production from any primary energy
  source, improving energy security
• Able to carry energy for most end uses
• No carbon-dioxide release at point of use
• Possibly no carbon-dioxide release at point of
  production
• Requires fundamental technological advances
• Transition issues would be critical
• Barriers are profound

3
The Hydrogen Economy Opportunities, Costs,
Barriers, and RD Needs Committee on Alternatives
and Strategies for Future Hydrogen Production and
Use National Research Council Final Report
available (PDF or hard copy) from http//books.na
p.edu/catalog/10922.html
4
Technologies to Produce H2
5
Hydrogen for Light Duty VehiclesThe Opportunity
6
Per-Unit Carbon Dioxide Releases for Various
Hydrogen Production PathwaysUse in Light Duty
Vehicles
7
Current Technology Carbon Releases
Coal and Natural Gas
Electricity Electrolysis
Nat Gas
Biomass
8
Future Technology Carbon Releases
Coal and Natural Gas
Electricity Electrolysis
Nat Gas
Biomass
Nuclear
9
Per-Unit Production Cost Estimates for Various
Hydrogen Production PathwaysUse in Light Duty
Vehicles
10
Current Technology Cost Estimates
Electricity Electrolysis
Biomass
Nat Gas
Coal and Natural Gas
11
Future Technology Cost Estimates
Electricity Electrolysis
Biomass
Nuclear
Nat Gas
Coal and Natural Gas
12
The OpportunityScenarios of Light Duty Vehicle
Technology Adoption

• ConventionalHybridHydrogen

13
Three Transition Scenarios

• Neither H2 nor hybrid vehicles successfully
  capture large market share
• H2 is not successful, but hybrid vehicles
  replace conventional vehicles over time
• If H2 is successful, hybrid vehicles replace
  conventional vehicles over time, then H2 vehicles
  replace hybrid vehicles. Commercial introduction
  of H2 vehicles in 2015.

14
New Conventional, Hybrid, and FC Vehicles Two
Scenarios
Fleet of Conventional, Hybrid, and FC Vehicles
Two Scenarios
15

• Over 45 years, hydrogen FCVs could result in a
  virtually complete transition from gasoline.

• Over 25 years, hybrid vehicles alone could have
  2/3 as large an impact as could a transition
  to FCVs.

16

• Over 45 years, FCVs, fueled with H2 produced
  from coal or natural
• gas, could reduce light-duty-vehicle CO2
  releases by 80-90, if
• CO2 is sequestered.
• Without sequestration FCVs with coal-based H2
  would have CO2
• similar to hybrid vehicles, H2 from natural
  gas could significantly
• reduce CO2 emissions.

17
Hydrogen for Light Duty VehiclesThe Barriers
18
Demand Side Technology Barriers Technology in
Vehicles

• Fuel cell cost
• Fuel cell life
• On-board storage
• Vehicle design challenges

19
Supply Side Technology Barriers

• Sequestration
• Cost
• Long-term dependability
• Transportation of hydrogen
• High cost at long distances or small quantities
• Source Specific Technologies
• Distributed Generation of Hydrogen
• Electrolysis
• Renewable primary energy

20
Potential Fueling Cost Barriers

• Hydrogen Production
• Distributed generation for the transition
• Hydrogen Retailing/Other Infrastructure
• Dual fueling system gasoline and hydrogen
• High costs when few cars exist (Chicken and
  Egg)
• Assuring enough local competition among fueling
  stations

21

• Gasoline tax to make FCVs competitive with
  gasoline-fueled hybrids, for current technology
  central-station fossil-fuel produced H2, would
  remain below 20 cents per gallon always.
• Through 2030, gasoline tax for distributed
  NG-based H2 below 20 cents per gallon but would
  rapidly increase afterwards.

22

• With potential future technologies, for
  technology central-station fossil-fuel produced
  H2, no gasoline tax needed to make FCVs
  competitive with gasoline-fueled hybrids.
• For first 20 years of the transition, gasoline
  tax for distributed NG-based H2 below 10 c/gal.

23

• For renewables-based H2, gasoline tax to make
  FCVs competitive with gasoline-fueled hybrids
  would be large. The smallest electrolysis of
  wind turbine generated electricity would
  converge to almost 0.80/gal. All others would
  converge to between 1.50/gal and 2.20/gal.

24
Potential Barriers Resource Limitations

• Natural Gas Supply and Demand
• Resources for Geological Sequestration
• Land for Biomass
• Coal Industry Expansion

25

• Natural Gas could be used in a transition
  period (say to 2025) without greatly increasing
  natural gas imports
• Over the longer run, FCVs could not rely on
  natural-gas-produced H2 without sharply
  increasing natural gas imports

26

• U.S. Resources for sequestering CO2 appear
  sufficient,
• but much research is needed.
• Infrastructure for sequestration would be
  massive.

Estimated capacity depleted U.S. oil gas
reservoirs 25-50 billion m. tonnes Estimated
capacity of unminable U.S. coal seams 15
billion metric tonnes
27

• Gasifying biomass cannot be dominant source of
  H2 too much land use would be too required.

U.S. 700,000 square miles crop land, 900,000
square miles of pasture land
28

• Coal could be used over the indefinite future
  without straining the U.S. coal resource base or
  industry capacity.

29
Other Barriers to Consumer Adoption

• Safety Issues
• Standards for fueling stations, pipelines,
  ventilation of garages and tunnels, hydrogen
  sensors
• Unforeseen consumer acceptance issues

30
Policy Barriers

• Sequestration
• Absent carbon tax or specific regulations, no
  incentive for sequestration.
• Tax of 50 per ton of carbon cost parity for
  central station coal, NG.
• Consumer Adoption
• Absent carbon tax, hydrogen subsidy, or other
  incentive, reduced incentives for consumers to
  buy hydrogen vehicles

31
Competition with Other Technologies

• Existing alternatives very attractive to
  consumers
• Hybrid vehicles
• Toyota Prius
• Honda Insight
• Competitive technologies will not remain stagnant
• Hybrid vehicles
• Plug-in hybrids?
• Dedicated electric vehicles

32
(No Transcript)
33
Hydrogen Fuel Cell Light Duty Vehicles

• Opportunities are great
• Barriers are formidable
• Transition times will be several decades -- at
  least
• Fundamental RD is crucial