Development of Emissions Scenarios Database for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report and Regional Mitigation Analysis - A Review of Post-SRES Scenarios -

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Development of Emissions Scenarios Database for
the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report and Regional
Mitigation Analysis- A Review of Post-SRES
Scenarios -
International Energy Workshop 2005 5-7, July 2005
National Institute for Environmental Studies
Tatsuya HANAOKAMikiko KAINUMA Kyoto
University Reina KAWASEYuzuru MATSUOKA
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Overview

1. Background and Previous Work
2. Outline of Emissions Scenarios Database
3. Development of Emissions Scenarios Database
4. Quantitative Analysis.
5. Conclusions and Future Work

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Background and Previous Work
Background
Emissions scenarios vary depending on various
socio-economic development pathways
Morita and Matsuoka started to develop emissions
scenarios database since 1992, to
contribute for IPCC Assessment
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Outline of Emissions Scenarios Database ?
http//www-cger.nies.go.jp/cger-e/db/enterprise/sc
enario/scenario_index_e.html
Category Example inventory
Driving Force Population, GDP,
Energy Oil, Coal, Gas,
Emission CO2, CH4, N2O, SOx, NOx
Others Energy Intensity, Carbon Intensity, Temperature Change, Sea Level Rise,
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Outline of Emissions Scenarios Database ?
? Data source in the current database
Data Source Number of data source
Data source reviewed by IPCC SAR etc. 40
Data source described in the scientific literatures and conferences such as EMF, IEW etc. 125
Data source reviewed by SRES process and Post-SRES process 41
Data source of national scenarios described in National Communication submitted to UNFCCC 45
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Scope of Work
? Update the current Emissions Scenarios
Database ? Analyze various new mitigation
scenarios since TAR.
Contribute for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
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Development of Database
Outline of scenarios of interest
? Subject matter New mitigation scenarios
since TAR ? Regional scale Global, regional
and national level analysis ? Temporal scale
Scenarios with horizons beyond 2030 ? Gas
classifications all anthropogenic GHGs CO2,
CH4, N2O, CFCs, HCFCs, HFCs, PFCs, SF6, CO,
NMVOC, SOx, NOx and Black Carbon etc ? Sector
classifications Multi-sector scenarios
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Outline of the updated Database
? Data source in the updated database
Geographical coverage Data source Data source
Multiregional global scenario 42 188
Single global scenario 8 35
Single multinational regional scenario 4 18
National scenario 7 29
? Data objective
Category Example inventory
Driving Force Population, GDP
Energy Oil, Coal, Gas, Nuclear, Renewable,
Emission CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6, SOx, NOx,
Others Energy Intensity, Carbon Intensity, Temperature Change, Sea Level Rise, Carbon Tax, CCS
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Representative Regional Aggregations
SRES4 SRES9 AR13 Description
REF REF FSU Former Soviet Union
REF REF EEU Eastern Europe
OECD90 WEU WEU OECD-Europe
OECD90 NAM CAN Canada
OECD90 NAM USA USA
OECD90 PAO ANZ Australia, New Zealand
OECD90 PAO JPN Japan
ASIA SPA PAS Other Pacific Asia
ASIA SPA SAS South Asia
ASIA CPA CPA Centrally planned Asia and China
ALM MEA MEA Middle East and North Africa
ALM AFR AFR Sub-Saharan Africa
ALM LAM LAM Latin America and the Caribbean
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Global CO2 emission changes from baseline
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Total CO2, CH4 and N2O emission changes from
baseline in 2100
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Evaluation Method the Kaya identity
C  Net CO2 emission including CO2 capture and
storage. Cs Fossilindustrial CO2 emission. Ep
primary energy consumption. A economic
activity. S  the ratio of net CO2 emission
to generated CO2 emission. i carbon
intensity (the ratio of generated CO2 emissions
to primary energy consumption). e  energy
intensity (the ratio of total primary energy
consumption to economic activity).
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GDP growth Energy Intensity Improvement under
550 ppmv Stabilization Scenarios
(a)Annual rate from 2000 2050
(b)Annual rate from 2000 2100
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GDP growth Carbon Intensity Reduction under
550 ppmv Stabilization Scenarios
(a)Annual rate from 2000 2050
(b)Annual rate from 2000 2100
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Carbon Intensity Energy Intensity under 550
ppmv Stabilization Scenarios
(a)Annual rate from 2000 2050
(b)Annual rate from 2000 2100
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Carbon Tax Regional CO2 mitigation rate
(a) Case in 2050
(b) Case in 2100
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Cost of CO2 abatement relative to baseline
projection
(a) Case in 2050
(b) Case in 2100
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Conclusions
The development of the Emissions Scenarios
Database would contribute to the understanding of
future GHG emissions scenarios and can provide
important insights for policy analysis. By
updating the Database, it becomes available to
analyze various new mitigation scenarios since
TAR at the regional level as well as the global
level
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Future Work
This study is in an intermediate stage and there
is scope for further refinement. ? contact as
many researchers as possible in the world
and collect and clarify more detailed data ?
collect more data from regional or national
scenarios and analyze emission reduction factors
in detail at the sub-regional and national
levels ? pay attention to reduction measures for
non-CO2 emissions such as CH4, N2O, F gases
etc
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Special Thanks for Researchers cooperation in
this DatabaseCall for Scenarios
Please visit http//www-cger.nies.go.jp/cger-e/db
/enterprise/scenario/scenario_index_e.html Or
Contact hanaoka_at_nies.go.jp