Title: Operational Analysis for the UK Permanent Joint Headquarters PJHQ
1Operational Analysis for the UK Permanent Joint
Headquarters (PJHQ)
- European Simulation Interoperability Workshop
2002 - 24 June
- Hugh Richardson, Les Ruskell
2PLAN FOR THIS SESSION
- Operational Analysis at PJHQ
- Scientific OA role
- OA Modus Operandi
- Examples of OA to Support Operations
- The Gulf, Balkan Operations
- Current PJHQ OA Priorities
- Summary
- Questions
3OA at PJHQ
Operational Analysis - the application of
scientific method to military operationswith
special emphasis on decision making
4SCIENTIFIC / OA ROLE
- The primary purpose of the OA Cell is to
coordinate, direct and provide appropriate
scientific and OA advice to the PJHQ (and JFHQ)
for - Joint, combined, (potentially joint or combined)
and multi-national operations - Contingency and operational planning
- Tier 3 exercises and wargames
5SCIENTIFIC / OA ROLE IN PLANNING
- To support and contribute to the joint estimate
process by evaluating the influence of the
factors - To compare the alternative course of actions
arising from the estimate - To identify appropriate measures of effectiveness
associated with the mission end state - - through wargaming, simulation and quantified
analysis
6THE ESTIMATE PROCESS
FEEDBACK OA
Strategic Estimate
PJHQ
Strategic Plan
Crisis Monitoring
Directive
JFHQ
Operational Estimate
Campaign Plan
Directive
Tactical Estimate
Operations Orders
Orders
COMPONENTS
OA MISSION REHEARSAL
or
7COA COMPARISON
8OA AT PJHQ JFHQ- MODUS OPERANDI
9DISTRIBUTED JOINT OA
J5(OA) CORE CELL AUGMENTEES WARFARE CENTRES
(AWC, MWC, HQLC) Dstl MoD CONTRACTORS
J5(OA)CORE TEAM PLACES TASKS WITH...
10RESPONSE TIME REQUIRED FOR OA ANSWERS
Time (hours)
11(No Transcript)
12DJOA ANALYSIS LEVELS RESPONSE TIMES
- Level 1 - fastest analysis, hours
- Level 2 - fast analysis, days
- Level 3 - longer timeframe, weeks
- Level 4 - underpinning Core Programme
13LEVEL 1 - FASTEST ANALYSIS
- Uses simplest techniques to correlate force
sizes and show relative build-up of forces - Can look at the Theatre-wide build-up for the
whole Coalition
14LEVEL 2 - FAST ANALYSIS
- Threat/Coalition deployments options for
opposing it - Effectiveness of air attacks on threat armour
- Effectiveness of attacks on infra-structure
targets e.g. bridges
15LEVEL 3 - RATIONALE
- Initial analysis from levels 1 2 provides fast
results to tight time-scales, but more confidence
can be gained by going to Level 3 analysis with a
longer response time
16LEVEL 3 - EXAMPLE ANALYSIS
- Planning figures from Air Warfare Centre
- Effectiveness of air strikes
- Number of a/c required for levels of effect
- Historical analysis from Air Army Historical
Branches - Use of wargames at Dstl
17EXAMPLE QUESTIONS FOR OA FROM OPS AND EXERCISES
- OP GRANBY
- OP HAMDEN/GRAPPLE
- OP RESOLUTE - IFOR
- OP LODESTAR
- OP LANCASTER
- OP DETERMINANT
- KOSOVO OPS
- EX PURPLE VIVA
- EX PURPLE SOUND
18AN OP GRANBY OA TASK
- Blue Brigade Actions - Digestible Bite Sized
Chunks - Tasked directly by Gen Rupert Smith
- Assess casualties
19OP HAMDEN OA TASKS
- Gaming and analysis of plans for the withdrawal
of UK forces - Assessment of the risk of air delivered weapons
inflicting civilian casualties - Rapid Reaction Force (24 Air Mobile Brigade) risk
analysis - Development of Pol-Mil game for HQ UN
Peacekeeping Forces (HQ UNPF)
20OP RESOLUTE OA TASKS
- OA Branch HQ ARRC deployed
- OA Tasks
- Measures of Compliance and Normality
- Voting Procedures
- Withdrawal Planning
- Data Collection
21SUPPORT TO OPERATIONS
- Op LODESTAR
- Risks to UK forces in Bosnia-Hercegovina
- Op LANCASTER
- No Fly Zone assessment
- Op DETERMINANT - (NEO ZAIRE)
- Timeline planning tool
22KOSOVO OA TASKS
- What size of NATO land force would be required to
enter and take Kosovo, defeat Serbian forces and
drive them from the province? - What would be the effect of cutting the Lines Of
Communications (LOCs) in Serbia? i.e. can OA
compare the re-supply requirements for the
Serbian forces within Kosovo with the rates at
which re-supply can be generated on the cut LOCs?
23Exercise Purple Viva 96 OA TASKS
- Correlation of land, sea and air forces
- Force package justification
- Indicators of enemy end state intentions
- Display of theatre build-up
- Battle casualty estimates
- No fly zone assessment
- Enemy operational options
- Targeting - risk assessment/force package
24Ex Purple Sound 98 OA TASKS
- JTFC what forces are required by the UK to gain
air superiority over the islands? - JFHQ what military assets would be required to
enforce a maritime and air exclusion zone rounds
the islands assuming NFZ/MEZ of 20, 50 and 100nm?
25CURRENT PJHQ OA PRIORITIESDr Les Ruskell
26PJHQ OA PRIORITIES
- Support to Operations Planning
- Support to Exercises
- Data collection
- New fast running tools and databases
27OA FOCUS FOR RECENT OPERATIONS AND EXERCISES
- Shift in nature of Operations from traditional
warfighting - Senior commanders increasingly focused on wider
Measures of Effectiveness - Normality Indicators in Bosnia
- Similar assessments being undertaken for ISAF
- But wider measures sought for warfighting
- Presentation of output in the context of
decision- - making
28SUMMARY
- Need to provide an independent view
- Conclusions need to be quantified and always
objective - Success depends upon DJOA, a knowledge database
and the simulation tools available - Highly dependent upon personal relationships with
PJHQ JFHQ Staffs
29OUR CHALLENGE TO YOU
- A Campaign Planning/ Mission Rehearsal Tool
- A Joint Tool (Maritime, Land and Air Forces)
- Operations from Humanitarian, Evacuation, Peace
Keeping, Peace Enforcement to Warfighting - Capable of producing results in 48 hours
- Able to identify and quantify areas of risk,
casualties and time lines - Able to be presented in a way that aids
decision-making
30QUESTIONS?