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Operational Analysis for the UK Permanent Joint Headquarters PJHQ

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Level 2 - fast analysis, days. Level 3 - longer timeframe, weeks ... LEVEL 2 - FAST ANALYSIS. Threat/Coalition deployments & options for opposing it ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Operational Analysis for the UK Permanent Joint Headquarters PJHQ


1
Operational Analysis for the UK Permanent Joint
Headquarters (PJHQ)
  • European Simulation Interoperability Workshop
    2002
  • 24 June
  • Hugh Richardson, Les Ruskell

2
PLAN FOR THIS SESSION
  • Operational Analysis at PJHQ
  • Scientific OA role
  • OA Modus Operandi
  • Examples of OA to Support Operations
  • The Gulf, Balkan Operations
  • Current PJHQ OA Priorities
  • Summary
  • Questions

3
OA at PJHQ
Operational Analysis - the application of
scientific method to military operationswith
special emphasis on decision making
4
SCIENTIFIC / OA ROLE
  • The primary purpose of the OA Cell is to
    coordinate, direct and provide appropriate
    scientific and OA advice to the PJHQ (and JFHQ)
    for
  • Joint, combined, (potentially joint or combined)
    and multi-national operations
  • Contingency and operational planning
  • Tier 3 exercises and wargames

5
SCIENTIFIC / OA ROLE IN PLANNING
  • To support and contribute to the joint estimate
    process by evaluating the influence of the
    factors
  • To compare the alternative course of actions
    arising from the estimate
  • To identify appropriate measures of effectiveness
    associated with the mission end state
  • - through wargaming, simulation and quantified
    analysis

6
THE ESTIMATE PROCESS
FEEDBACK OA
Strategic Estimate
PJHQ
Strategic Plan
Crisis Monitoring
Directive
JFHQ
Operational Estimate
Campaign Plan
Directive
Tactical Estimate
Operations Orders
Orders
COMPONENTS
OA MISSION REHEARSAL
or
7
COA COMPARISON
8
OA AT PJHQ JFHQ- MODUS OPERANDI
9
DISTRIBUTED JOINT OA
J5(OA) CORE CELL AUGMENTEES WARFARE CENTRES
(AWC, MWC, HQLC) Dstl MoD CONTRACTORS
J5(OA)CORE TEAM PLACES TASKS WITH...
10
RESPONSE TIME REQUIRED FOR OA ANSWERS
Time (hours)
11
(No Transcript)
12
DJOA ANALYSIS LEVELS RESPONSE TIMES
  • Level 1 - fastest analysis, hours
  • Level 2 - fast analysis, days
  • Level 3 - longer timeframe, weeks
  • Level 4 - underpinning Core Programme

13
LEVEL 1 - FASTEST ANALYSIS
  • Uses simplest techniques to correlate force
    sizes and show relative build-up of forces
  • Can look at the Theatre-wide build-up for the
    whole Coalition

14
LEVEL 2 - FAST ANALYSIS
  • Threat/Coalition deployments options for
    opposing it
  • Effectiveness of air attacks on threat armour
  • Effectiveness of attacks on infra-structure
    targets e.g. bridges

15
LEVEL 3 - RATIONALE
  • Initial analysis from levels 1 2 provides fast
    results to tight time-scales, but more confidence
    can be gained by going to Level 3 analysis with a
    longer response time

16
LEVEL 3 - EXAMPLE ANALYSIS
  • Planning figures from Air Warfare Centre
  • Effectiveness of air strikes
  • Number of a/c required for levels of effect
  • Historical analysis from Air Army Historical
    Branches
  • Use of wargames at Dstl

17
EXAMPLE QUESTIONS FOR OA FROM OPS AND EXERCISES
  • OP GRANBY
  • OP HAMDEN/GRAPPLE
  • OP RESOLUTE - IFOR
  • OP LODESTAR
  • OP LANCASTER
  • OP DETERMINANT
  • KOSOVO OPS
  • EX PURPLE VIVA
  • EX PURPLE SOUND

18
AN OP GRANBY OA TASK
  • Blue Brigade Actions - Digestible Bite Sized
    Chunks
  • Tasked directly by Gen Rupert Smith
  • Assess casualties

19
OP HAMDEN OA TASKS
  • Gaming and analysis of plans for the withdrawal
    of UK forces
  • Assessment of the risk of air delivered weapons
    inflicting civilian casualties
  • Rapid Reaction Force (24 Air Mobile Brigade) risk
    analysis
  • Development of Pol-Mil game for HQ UN
    Peacekeeping Forces (HQ UNPF)

20
OP RESOLUTE OA TASKS
  • OA Branch HQ ARRC deployed
  • OA Tasks
  • Measures of Compliance and Normality
  • Voting Procedures
  • Withdrawal Planning
  • Data Collection

21
SUPPORT TO OPERATIONS
  • Op LODESTAR
  • Risks to UK forces in Bosnia-Hercegovina
  • Op LANCASTER
  • No Fly Zone assessment
  • Op DETERMINANT - (NEO ZAIRE)
  • Timeline planning tool

22
KOSOVO OA TASKS
  • What size of NATO land force would be required to
    enter and take Kosovo, defeat Serbian forces and
    drive them from the province?
  • What would be the effect of cutting the Lines Of
    Communications (LOCs) in Serbia? i.e. can OA
    compare the re-supply requirements for the
    Serbian forces within Kosovo with the rates at
    which re-supply can be generated on the cut LOCs?

23
Exercise Purple Viva 96 OA TASKS
  • Correlation of land, sea and air forces
  • Force package justification
  • Indicators of enemy end state intentions
  • Display of theatre build-up
  • Battle casualty estimates
  • No fly zone assessment
  • Enemy operational options
  • Targeting - risk assessment/force package

24
Ex Purple Sound 98 OA TASKS
  • JTFC what forces are required by the UK to gain
    air superiority over the islands?
  • JFHQ what military assets would be required to
    enforce a maritime and air exclusion zone rounds
    the islands assuming NFZ/MEZ of 20, 50 and 100nm?

25
CURRENT PJHQ OA PRIORITIESDr Les Ruskell

26
PJHQ OA PRIORITIES
  • Support to Operations Planning
  • Support to Exercises
  • Data collection
  • New fast running tools and databases

27
OA FOCUS FOR RECENT OPERATIONS AND EXERCISES
  • Shift in nature of Operations from traditional
    warfighting
  • Senior commanders increasingly focused on wider
    Measures of Effectiveness
  • Normality Indicators in Bosnia
  • Similar assessments being undertaken for ISAF
  • But wider measures sought for warfighting
  • Presentation of output in the context of
    decision-
  • making

28
SUMMARY
  • Need to provide an independent view
  • Conclusions need to be quantified and always
    objective
  • Success depends upon DJOA, a knowledge database
    and the simulation tools available
  • Highly dependent upon personal relationships with
    PJHQ JFHQ Staffs

29
OUR CHALLENGE TO YOU
  • A Campaign Planning/ Mission Rehearsal Tool
  • A Joint Tool (Maritime, Land and Air Forces)
  • Operations from Humanitarian, Evacuation, Peace
    Keeping, Peace Enforcement to Warfighting
  • Capable of producing results in 48 hours
  • Able to identify and quantify areas of risk,
    casualties and time lines
  • Able to be presented in a way that aids
    decision-making

30
QUESTIONS?
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