Context of Congressional Elections

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Context of Congressional Elections

• Single member districts
• Roughly equal size (650,000 souls)
• First Tuesday in November in even years
• Australian ballot
• Must win 2 elections

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Same Place, Same VotersThree Maps, Three Outcomes

• Basic Rules
• each square same population.
• All squares in the same district must touch
• R squares have a majority of Republican voters
• D squares have a majority of Democratic voters.
• Each set of squares with the same color represent
  a single election district

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Map 1

• How many Ds and Rs elected?
• How many competitive elections?

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Map 2

• How many Ds and Rs elected?
• How many competitive elections?

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Map 3

• How many Ds and Rs elected?
• How many competitive elections?

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Florida

• Florida's 22nd District
• 90 miles long
• Less than 3 miles wide.
• every beach house lining Route A1A along
  Florida's Gold Coast from West Palm Beach to
  Miami Beach
• 52 Dem in 2000, 55 R in 2002

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Majority Minority Districts
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Social Political Contexts

• Amazing Variation
• geographic size
• Population
• Economic base
• Ethnicity
• Age
• Partisanship

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Incumbency Reelection Rates 1832-1996
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Incumbency

• 93 of House incumbents are reelected
• 1994, 84 of House Democrats were reelected
• 77 of Senate incumbents are reelected
• 1 question to ask for congressional elections,
  Is there an incumbent?
• Defining feature of Congress

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Sources of Incumbent advantage

• Institutions are designed by members who want to
  get reelected.
• Amazing array of resources
• Free mail, trips to district, staff
• Free facilities for TV and radio ads
• Casework

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of Senate Staff, 1830 1993
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Puzzle
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Is it the Money?

• Average incumbent gets 64.3 of vote
• For every 100,00 spent, lose 1.17 of vote
• For every 100,00 spent by party, lose 2.73 of
  vote
• incumbent House winner spends 700,00
• incumbent House loser spends 1,300,000

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Incumbency Status and Voters' Familiarity with
Congressional Candidates, 1980-1994
Jacobsen, The Politics of Congressional
Elections, 1996
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Voters Contact with Incumbents
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Voters Contact with Candidates, 1990
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Voters Contact with Candidates, 1990
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Challengers 1990, 1994
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Things Liked about Incumbents
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Things Disliked about Incumbents
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Things Liked about Challengers
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Characteristics of Winning and Losing Challengers
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Corporate PACs/Trade Associations 60 of all PAC
, 1994
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The Incumbents Strategy

• Discourage serious electoral competition
• Herb Kohl
• Use casework, trips home, mailings to create
  perception of invulnerability
• Ambitious career politicians and campaign funders
  are rational

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Who is a marginal incumbent

• Less than 60 of vote in previous election
• Scandal in last term
• Republican in a democratic leaning district
• First term representative

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Electoral Competition and Challenger Spending in
1994

• Challengers party vote in last House election,
  spending by non-incumbent house candidate
• lt40, 105,000
• 40-45, 322,000
• 45-49.9, 433 ,000
• Open seat 580,000

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House of Representatives

• 61 competitive races in 2000
• 193 GOP incumbents won, 4 lost
• 199 Dem incumbents won, 2 lost
• GOP wins 20 of 25 open seats
• Dems with 4 of 10 open seats
• 17 changes of 435

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Senate in 2000

• 12 toss up races out of 33
• GOP 13 of 18 incumbents win
• Dems 10 of 11 incumbents win
• GOP 0 of 1 on open seats
• Dems 3 of 4 on open seats
• 7 changes

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Expectations Game

• Better the electoral odds, better the challenger
  and more money
• Weak incumbents and open seats attract well
  funded quality challengers
• Strong incumbents attract weak, poorly funded
  candidates

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Strategic Politician Hypothesis

• Best candidates, most money go to marginal
  incumbents, open seats
• 2nd tier candidates, some money go
• Hopeless, poorly funded candidates run against
  strong incumbents

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Campaigns

• ½ of all money is wasted, high uncertainty
• What issues are important
• Low turnout
• Random terror and running scared
• Tom Foley, speaker of the house, 15 terms

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Why do incumbents win?

• Better known (90 vs 40
• Better liked (more familiar)
• Better funded

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Why do challengers win?

• Make voters aware of incumbents shortcomings,
  their own virtues via mass media
• Are well funded
• Implications???

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Reforming the System

• Term limits
• Federal level
• State level
• Increase competitiveness of elections
• Campaign finance reform
• Key Issue, how to get more people to run for
  office!!!

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Why Incumbents Win

• Table 5.3, high name recognition
• Table 5.7, Voters Contact with Candidates
• Table 5.15
• Personal
• Performance/experience
• District service
• Ideology/Policy

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Challengers Strategy

• Table 5.3 name recognition
• Table 5.11, Campaign expenditures and name
  recognition
• Table 5.7, Voters Contact with Candidates
• Where do voters learn about challengers
• Table 5.15, Things liked about challengers
• What is 1?

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The Two Congresses

• Representative/elective institution
• reelection is never far from members minds.
• Lawmaking institution
• First branch of government
• Unique among representative institutions

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Explaining the Behavior of Individual Members

• Edmund Burke should representative
• act like a delegate and follow the wishes of
  those who have elected him or her?
• Or as a Trustee who decides according to his or
  her own best judgment?

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Changing Representational Roles

• Lawmakers
• District service
• Constituent assistance

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3 types of behavior

• Advertising
• Nobodys senator but yours
• Credit claiming
• Has to be credible
• Pork barreling casework
• Position taking
• Inherently costly

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reelection tips for legislators

• keep your perspective
• speak the right language
• first impressions are important